Since its founding in 2012, DraftKings has achieved enormous success. From its roots in Daily Fantasy Sports, the company has evolved into a sports betting industry leader and a huge part of the online casino landscape. As CEO Jason Robins explained in a recent letter to shareholders, the next potential growth area is crystal clear. |
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"We have been building DraftKings for more than 14 years. When a new growth lane opens, we move fast and execute at scale, " Robins wrote. "Predictions is the most exciting new growth opportunity we have seen since PASPA was struck down in 2018. Early signals are strong." |
The letter was part of the company's release of financial results for the final quarter of 2025. The market wasn't tickled with the numbers, leading to a hit for the share price. Investors may not be enthused for now, but Robins and company have a strong track record of spotting opportunities. If they're enthusiastically building and scaling, chances are there's something there. |
Top 5 Markets |
Fed decision in March? Now at over $126 million in volume and climbing at Polymarket. The price leader is "no change" at 93 cents, with a "25 bps decrease" at 7 cents. |
 | Polymarket |
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What price will Bitcoin hit in February? The crypto bellwether continues to swing. Polymarket traders are trying to pinpoint price targets, with "over $75k" the leader here at 32 cents. |
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How long will the government shutdown last? A partial shutdown went into effect on Saturday over DHS funding. Kalshi traders see this one lasting for a bit, with the current forecast at 24 days. |
 | Kalshi |
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Men's Ice Hockey - Gold Medal Winner: The tournament ramps up this week, culminating with Sunday's gold medal game. Canada (56 cents) is favored over the U.S. (31 cents) at Kalshi. |
 | Kalshi |
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Who will leave Trump's cabinet next? This Kalshi market has Pam Bondi in the lead at 23 cents. The next two choices are jockeying for position: Kristi Noem (18 cents) and Howard Lutnick (17 cents). |
 | Kalshi |
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Biggest Movers |
Kevin Warsh formally nominated as Fed Chair by February 28? Potentially delayed by the shutdown, and rumblings of a potential pivot are also making the rounds. This market dipped by 10 points at Polymarket to 42 cents. |
 | Kevin Warsh |
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Will Apple announce the iPhone 17 e by February 28? Polymarket traders aren't expecting this to happen, sending contract prices tumbling 56 points to 3.9 cents. |
 | Polymarket |
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Who will attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? There were several notable swings in this market for no shows, including Justin Bieber's price collapsing 82 points at Polymarket. |
 | Polymarket |
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The Rulebook Is Being Written In Real Time |
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has unveiled an Innovation Advisory Committee. The 35-member panel will help "future-proof its markets and develop clear rules," explained CFTC chair Michael Selig. Interestingly, several prediction market leaders have seats at the table. |
Activity: The advisory panel is tasked with helping the CFTC develop clearer guidance for emerging markets, including event contracts. The move further signals a transition from regulatory ambiguity toward structured oversight. |
Drivers: Rapid volume growth, sportsbook participation, and rising political scrutiny have pushed prediction markets into mainstream policy discussion. Large, regulated firms now have formal input into how the rules may be constructed.
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When the largest operators are in the room, influence follows. The eventual framework is likely to reflect operational realities of firms built for scale. Clarity may help to accelerate growth, but it may also raise the bar for other entrants. |
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The rulebook is being negotiated in real time by regulators and the companies positioned to expand under it. It's not unusual to have industry executives part of the discussion on rules - think banking, energy, food, healthcare, and much more - but it's also a common practice that doesn't help with public perception. We'll wait to see what the committee comes up with, but chances are those in the room will benefit. |
New & Trending Markets |
Will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? Rumors have started making the rounds, inspiring Kalshi to debut this contract with a handful of dates to choose from. |
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Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Polymarket traders aren't anticipating this to happen, with the price falling 13 points to 10 cents. |
 | Polymarket |
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Who will win the Traitors US: Season 4? Trading on this reality show market has surpassed the $1.1M mark at Kalshi. Rob Rausch is the price leader at 90 cents. |
 | The Traitors US Season 4 | Official Trailer | Peacock Original |
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News to Know |
Arrests have been made on suspected insider trading by Israeli army reservists. Prediction News has the story. |
Iowa Electronic Markets established some roots for the prediction market industry as we know it. NBC News takes a look back. |
Will state legislation actually have any bearing on prediction markets? This breakdown from iGamingBusiness provides perspective. |
Is there a viable solution to combating insider trading? CoinDesk has some insight into a potential path that some want to explore. |
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has shared concerns for the industry and potential solutions. CryptoNews has the details. |
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The enthusiastic stance of DraftKings on prediction markets suggests that sportsbooks don't see the explosive growth of the industry as a threat, but rather something that can be harnessed. It's way too early to say who will be the winners and losers, but a company that tends to grow fast while breaking things can't be counted out. |
Meanwhile, industry leaders are getting a seat at the table as the CFTC crafts its innovation agenda. This could have ramifications down the road, not only for who emerges as the industry leaders, but also for who else gets to compete. Those in the room should be fine, while those who didn't receive invites may continue to face an uphill climb. |
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