| | | | | | Good morning: | We have a busy day today… | I'm calm… | | If you're a trader, you have to start your day with our insights here at Market Masters. | Here's what matters this morning. | 1) Trump Reopens the Tariff Front | President Trump raised tariffs on South Korean autos, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and other reciprocal goods to 25% from 15%, citing Seoul's delay in ratifying the trade deal. South Korea is scrambling, pledging fast-track legislation and another ministerial visit to Washington. | Markets shrugged for now. KOSPI dipped, then rebounded. Futures stayed green. But tariffs are back in the conversation, and that matters for autos, global supply chains, and inflation optics heading into the Fed meeting. | 2) Yen Volatility Is the Real Tell | USD/JPY dropped sharply below 154, briefly breaking its 100-day moving average. No clean catalyst, which is the point. This looks like plumbing stress, not headlines. | When the yen moves like this, metals respond, carry trades unwind, and dollar liquidity tightens. That's been the backdrop for gold near $5,000 and silver north of $110. This is not retail enthusiasm. This is positioning. | 3) Big Earnings Week, Thin Margin for Error | U.S. equity futures are modestly higher, with a heavy earnings slate ahead including Texas Instruments, Boeing, GM, RTX, American Airlines, Logitech, and LVMH, plus four Mag 7 names later this week. | The market is priced for good news. Any stumble matters more than usual with breadth weakening and the Russell already flipping red. | 4) Rates Steady, But the Clock Is Ticking | The 10-year sits near 4.22% as traders wait on ADP jobs data, Consumer Confidence, and tomorrow's Fed decision. No rate change expected. What matters is language around liquidity, reserves, and financial conditions. | When central banks start explaining the machinery, it's usually because something is stuck. | 5) Energy and Metals Stay Bid | Natural gas remains elevated with Henry Hub near $7/MMBtu as winter demand shocks supply. Crude is steady. Precious metals rebounded hard after Monday's profit-taking. | This continues to look less like speculation and more like hedging against system stress. | Bottom Line
We're heading into a Fed meeting, peak earnings week, renewed tariff threats, and visible stress in global FX plumbing. Futures are green, but the market is dancing very close to the exit. | We're playing defense, taking profits where appropriate, and building cash for when volatility actually pays. | I'm going live at 8:45 a.m. to walk through positioning and what to watch next. | See you soon, | Garrett Baldwin |
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