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2 Reasons to Buy Into Lam's 185% Rally, 1 Reason to Run Away
Written by Sam Quirke. Published 11/10/2025.
Key Points
- Lam Research continues to crush expectations and gain momentum, driven by strong earnings and AI tailwinds.
- Analysts are still hiking their price targets even after a 185% run since April.
- Despite short-term potential overbought signals, analyst support suggests that the stock could still offer upside.
Lam Research Corp. (NASDAQ: LRCX) has been one of 2025's defining semiconductor stories. The Fremont-headquartered company designs and manufactures wafer-fabrication equipment—an essential component in the chip supply chain—and appears to have caught the AI-driven wave in demand at the right time. Its shares hit an all-time high of over $165 on Wednesday, Nov. 5, capping a staggering 185% rally since April.
A mix of surging industry demand, strong earnings beats, and persistent analyst upgrades has fuelled the rally. But after almost tripling in price since April, investors face a tough choice: is it too late to join the party, or is Lam only getting started? Here are two reasons to consider buying into the rally and one reason to hold back.
Bullish Reason #1: Strong Fundamentals
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First is the company's underlying performance, which has consistently topped analyst expectations for several quarters. Its Q3 earnings update in late October continued that streak and reinforced that the surge in chip spending is real.
Both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue came in comfortably ahead of Wall Street expectations, and management is forecasting continued growth into the new year.
Demand across the memory and logic segments improved sharply, offsetting weaker sales in China and showing that Lam's diversification strategy is working.
Revenue for the quarter rose more than 27% year-over-year, driven largely by a rebound in memory-equipment demand and an improving product mix.
Lam is also benefiting from structural tailwinds across the semiconductor landscape. Global wafer-fabrication equipment spending is projected to increase through 2026, with capacity expansion in the United States and Europe providing multi-year visibility. As one of the leading players in the space, Lam is well-positioned to capture that demand.
Bullish Reason #2: Overwhelming Analyst Support
Analysts have been broadly positive on Lam's prospects. This week, Weiss Ratings reiterated its Buy rating, echoing recent actions from DBS Bank, Cantor Fitzgerald and Oppenheimer late last month. These upgrades followed the earnings report, and despite the eye-watering rally, some recent price targets still imply up to 25% upside from Thursday's close.
There now seems to be a clear consensus that Lam's rally is grounded in improving fundamentals rather than pure short-term hype, even as the stock benefits from both.
The stock has collected Buy, or equivalent, ratings from multiple firms over the year, and many view Lam as one of the cleanest ways to play the AI infrastructure buildout.
Heading into the final weeks of the year, that institutional support is exactly what prospective investors should look for if they're considering getting involved now.
Even after the 185% run-up since April, some argue the stock remains reasonably valued relative to its growth potential. Its price-to-earnings ratio, around 35, sits near the same level as more than a year ago despite consistently stronger revenue prints each quarter. While buying a stock at record highs is never easy, that valuation backdrop can offer a degree of comfort.
1 Reason to Stay Away
There is a legitimate concern that the stock has moved too far, too fast. After nearly tripling in less than eight months, technical indicators suggest Lam may be approaching exhaustion. For much of last month the stock's relative strength index (RSI) was above 80, signaling extremely overbought conditions. It has cooled since then and currently sits near a healthier reading of 64.
Still, more days of unchecked gains could push it back into overbought territory, which is a risk. It doesn't help that many tech stocks and the broader market look vulnerable to a correction. That said, given Lam's strong fundamentals and bright outlook, any meaningful pullback could present a solid entry opportunity for investors willing to buy the dip.
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