The Defining Trend of the 2025 Holiday Season – and How to Play It VIEW IN BROWSER
By ANDY SWAN, FOUNDER, LIKEFOLIO Every so often, the market hands investors a gift. In the case of Swiss running shoemaker On Holding (ONON), that gift came wrapped in disbelief. Heading into On’s third-quarter earnings report last Wednesday, the stock had fallen roughly 35% year to date. Investors were convinced that fading consumer strength, higher tariffs, and Nike’s (NKE) rebound meant the premium sneaker run was over. But our consumer data told a different story – one that led our Earnings Season Pass subscribers to a +100% profit in four days. While the market focused on stock charts, we tuned in to what real consumers were saying: - Demand for On running shoes was climbing...
- Consumer Happiness was rising...
- And brand conversation was hitting new highs.
We took the bullish trade. And when the market finally caught up, shares jumped roughly 25% in a single session. For Earnings Season Pass members, ONON’s post-earnings surge was the payoff for months of rising consumer data that Wall Street ignored. Bob H. banked a +100% gain, Lalit K. made a +125% return, and George W. netted a $1,636 profit – all by following our data. (Here’s how you can join them for the next round of earnings trades, which drops tonight at 7:00 p.m.) It pays to listen to consumers. And the opportunity isn’t over. Today, we’ll use the same data that handed us this double-your-money gift from ONON to spot the next five breakout stars of the holiday season... | Recommended Link | | | | When markets plummeted 24% in 2020, most investors panicked. Those with this mathematical system could have stayed calm and protected. More recently, one member across our services wrote in to say: “I got out of any stock that went into the red zone… Slept well every night,” says Francis R. Now it’s helping to protect thousands against the next inevitable crash. Click here to see how. |  | | The Consumer Trend Behind ONON’s Gains Last week, On proved it’s built one of the rarest positions in retail: an athletic performance brand that commands luxury-level loyalty. (And it’s not the only stock that can do so.) Revenue climbed nearly 25%, margins expanded sharply, full-year growth guidance increased, Asia-Pacific sales almost doubled, and apparel momentum built quickly as shoppers embraced the lifestyle side of the brand. The company is choosing to skip Black Friday promotions altogether, reinforcing its confidence in full-price demand. That approach works because the consumer base is both devoted and expanding. “Our focus on premium, on full-price sales, on innovation, on that intersection between performance and design is just resonating very strongly with the consumer,” explained CEO Martin Hoffmann on the third-quarter earnings call. In fact... that describes all the other stocks we’ll be talking about today, too. High-income consumers remain the engine of discretionary spending, and companies like these sit directly in their path. Even as lower-income segments pull back, affluent buyers continue spending on premium, experience-driven goods: 
Clean design, credibility, and craftsmanship give companies like ONON the kind of pricing strength that holds up, even in slower macro periods. This combination of pricing power, lifestyle crossover, and global scale creates the kind of setup investors look for – one where consumer enthusiasm leads fundamentals. That’s because consumers with stable incomes are choosing better products, not cheaper ones – and aspirational shoppers are following their lead. We dug into the trend to find similar stocks with the potential to break out next. And several other premium names are showing the same underlying strengths: - Growing demand...
- Premium pricing...
- And loyal consumer bases that spend through economic noise.
Here are the five tickers to watch… No. 1: Ralph Lauren (RL) Ralph Lauren's premium positioning remains untouchable. In its most recent quarter, revenue rose 17% year over year, management raised guidance, and executives said they’ve seen “no meaningful changes in consumer behavior across key segments or markets.” With full-price sales driving growth, this season is shaping up as “Ralph Lauren Christmas.” (No really, Ralph Lauren Christmas is trending right now). 
For now, RL’s Social Heat Score stands at a bearish 27.2 out of 100, but we’ll be watching demand closely. Any significant spike could send its score higher. 
No. 2: Birkenstock (BIRK) Footwear heritage brand Birkenstock continues its transformation into a global lifestyle player. Double-digit revenue growth, strong margins, and leadership’s focus on full-price realization mirror ONON’s exact playbook. The company’s positioning between comfort, style, and timelessness gives it room to keep scaling. We’re watching for an inflection point in the digital demand chart below for confirmation that BIRK can sustain interest into the holidays. 
If this trend plays out, MegaTrends members should see it in the next two weeks. For now, BIRK’s Social Heat Score lingers in neutral territory at 38.1 out of 100. 
No. 3: Lululemon (LULU) Despite a tough year for LULU shares (-56% year to date), underlying demand for Lululemon’s core apparel looks surprisingly robust – particularly compared to the levels recorded in Q3. The addition of menswear and footwear broadens its base, while consumer loyalty keeps margins intact. LULU could prove to be another example of a premium activewear thriving amid broader retail slowdown – and take naysayers by surprise. Even we were shocked to see the bullish divergence forming between rising digital demand and the stock price: 
LULU’s Social Heat Score is stuck in the bearish zone at a 26.6 out of 100 – for now. But if our demand data keeps trending higher, this could quickly flip to a bullish opportunity. 
No. 4: Oxford Industries (OXM) Oxford Industries is executing exceptionally well at the top end of leisurewear. Its Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer brands cater to affluent consumers, thrive on full-price sales, and benefit from limited promotional exposure. Strong demand for resort and casual luxury apparel keeps its momentum intact. The company stuck to its guidance last quarter as emerging brand net sales gained 17% year over year. Today, OXM’s Social Heat Score is decidedly bearish at 28.7 out of 100 – but we’re tracking this name closely. It fits the ONON brief to a T, and MegaTrends members with a keen eye on its Social Heat Score will be the first to know when the opportunity emerges. 
No. 5: Canada Goose (GOOS) Canada Goose specializes in luxury outerwear that bridges performance and prestige. The company’s latest quarter showed renewed momentum in direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, which grew 22% year over year, driven by strength in Asia and North America. GOOS continues to command high price points and brand loyalty through craftsmanship, design, and scarcity. As global temperatures drop, so do markdowns elsewhere – but not here. GOOS earns the highest Social Heat Score of this bunch today at a bullish 79 out of 100 – signaling strong underlying momentum that you can take advantage of. 
The Bottom Line In the premium discretionary space, brands that maintain pricing power, deliver design credibility, and expand globally continue to outperform. ONON proved what happens when those forces align. RL, BIRK, LULU, OXM, and GOOS could be next. We’ll be watching the data flow through in real time. And when the time comes to trade these earnings events, Earnings Season Pass members will know exactly how to play them. Here’s how YOU can join in on the next round of profits. Until next time, 
Andy Swan
Founder, LikeFolio | 
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