2. Rate Cuts Continue Through Early 2026 The Fed's easing cycle continues well into 2026 and beyond, providing sustained liquidity for risk assets. Lower rates reduce borrowing costs, improve debt serviceability, and make equities more attractive versus fixed income. What this means: - Cheaper capital for expansion and buybacks
- Better valuations for growth stocks
- Increased M&A activity
- Housing market stabilization
3. Trump Appoints New Fed Leadership in May The most significant catalyst comes in May when Trump selects new Fed leadership. This represents a major shift from Powell's "slowly ease" approach to an administration wanting to "stimulate." Trump has been vocal about wanting aggressive rate cuts, and he'll get appointees who deliver... A more dovish Fed could accelerate cuts, expand liquidity programs, and prioritize growth over inflation concerns. 4. Mid-Term Cycle Liquidity Boost Election year dynamics favor credit easing, and 2026 is a midterm year. Trump will be aggressive pushing this with his new Fed appointee. Political incentive to keep markets elevated creates a powerful tailwind. Historical patterns: - Increased fiscal stimulus
- Accelerated rate cutting
- Political pressure for strong markets
- Infrastructure spending and tax incentives
This isn't speculation—it's how political cycles function. The difference is an administration signaling extraordinary accommodation. 5. Multiple Expansion As Rates Fall When the Fed cuts rates, equity multiples expand dramatically. People become willing to pay more for the same earnings. Even if revenues stay flat—which they won't—discount rate compression alone drives valuations higher. A stock at 20x earnings might command 25x or 30x in a lower rate environment with identical fundamentals. This mathematical reality plays out in every rate-cutting cycle. |
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