5 Signs That a Bubble Market’s About to Pop  First, a quick thank you to Roger and Kane for letting me make a guest appearance in today’s edition of The TradingPub newsletter! Because I have a story to share about a guy named Chad…
Chad’s a “savvy investor.” You know the type. He’s got the Patagonia vest, the Allbirds, and a Robinhood account that’s perpetually glowing green.
He made a killing on Dogecoin, obviously. His secret? He just does the opposite of whatever Jim Cramer says. A bold strategy, Cotton — let’s see if it pays off for him.
Lately, Chad’s been all in on AI. He’s got his life savings in a company that promises to use artificial intelligence to disrupt the artisanal toast industry. He’s not entirely sure what they do, but their ticker symbol is AVO, and their CEO wears a black turtleneck, so it’s gotta be a winner, right?
Now, I’m not here to make fun of Chad. OK, maybe a little. But the truth is, we’re all a little bit like Chad right now. We’re living in a market that feels like a party that’s gone on a little too long. The music is still playing but the sun is coming up, and you’re starting to wonder if that’s actually champagne you’re drinking or just flat ginger ale.
Hartnett’s Five Market Tells
A little birdie from Bank of America, a fella by the name of Michael Hartnett, just slipped us a note. It’s a list of five things to watch for — five little “tells” that the party’s about to end and the bouncer is about to kick us all to the curb. And you know me — I love a good list, especially when it comes with a side of potential profits.
Hartnett says the first sign comes when the bankers get too happy. If the BKX index goes above 140, it’s a sign that the guys who are supposed to be the responsible adults in the room are starting to get a little too giddy. Well, guess what? We’re already there.
The bankers are doing the conga line on their desks.
Next, the tech guys get cocky. Hartnett says to watch the difference in borrowing costs between tech companies and everyone else. If that gap gets too wide — over 100 basis points — it means the tech crowd is borrowing money like it’s going out of style.
And why are they borrowing so much? To build the AI dream, of course. Oracle, one of the big players in the AI space, just took on $18 billion in debt to build a massive cloud computing facility for OpenAI — a facility that will require the power of 2.25 Hoover Dams.
You heard that right. Two and a quarter Hoover Dams for a project that’s being paid for with money that OpenAI doesn’t even have yet. It’s like buying a fleet of Lamborghinis on a credit card with a 25% interest rate, hoping you’ll win the lottery to pay it all off.
What could possibly go wrong?
Hartnett also says to keep an eye on junk bonds. If the JNK ETF drops below $80, it means even the most risk-hungry investors are starting to get nervous. We’re not there yet, but it’s something to watch.
He points to Bitcoin too. If it drops below $100,000, it’s a sign that the speculative fever is breaking. Bitcoin is hovering just above that level now — like a Jenga tower with one too many blocks pulled out.
And then there’s what Hartnett calls the “Gen Z put.” An entire generation of young people, staring down the barrel of AI-induced job losses, has decided the only way to maintain their standard of living is to gamble on stocks and crypto.
They’re not investing, they’re playing the lottery. Their financial nihilism is actually propping up the market. But what happens when they start losing their jobs and can’t afford to buy the dip?
That’s the million-dollar question.
Where Smart Money Moves
So, what’s a savvy investor to do? Do we all just sell everything and hide in a bunker with a year’s supply of canned beans? Of course not. That’s what Chad would do.
We’re smarter than that.
Hartnett gives us a few ideas. He says gold and Chinese stocks are good hedges against a bubble. If you’re feeling particularly bearish, you could even short those hyperscaler bonds we talked about earlier — though that’s a pro move, not for the faint of heart.
But here’s the real gem. Hartnett says that if we get a recession, the best place to be is in the sectors that have been beaten down the most — homebuilders, real estate and retail.
Think of it as dumpster diving for diamonds. When everyone else is panicking, that’s when you find the real bargains.
So there you have it — the five signs the sky might be falling and a few ideas on how to build a financial ark to ride out the storm. Don’t be a Chad. Do your own research. And for the love of all that is holy, diversify your portfolio beyond artisanal toast. Jeffry Turnmire
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. _______________________________________________ You’ve Been Told to Stay Away from the Opening Hour…
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We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. In LIVE trading with alerts published in real time from 07/22/2025 to 11/04/2025, the strategy is 52-20, with a 72.6% overall win rate and an average return, winners and losers included, of 10.35%. _______________________________________________ Want to get a link to TradingPub content, trade ideas, real-time market analysis and educational tidbits? We have you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3…
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