Two years after the massacre that seared the heart and soul of Israel's people, the surviving hostages may finally be on the verge of coming home, along with the remains of those who did not survive.
Sixty-five thousand Gazans have been killed by the war that followed, including thousands of children, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilian and military deaths. Thousands more are injured; their homes, schools and hospitals reduced to rubble.
After repeated diplomatic failures, there is finally a glimmer of hope for a solution. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that "good progress" has been made with the peace talks. And President Donald Trump said he may go to the Middle East in the coming days if a deal comes together.
Both sides are exhausted, with the Hamas leadership assassinated and Israel's generals pleading with the politicians to declare victory and bring the soldiers home. For the first time, Trump is pressuring Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do exactly that. But the political hatred and security concerns embedded in 80 years of bloodshed cannot be resolved overnight.
The immediate challenge is setting the terms for Hamas to release the hostages, and Israel to agree on which Palestinian prisoners will be freed in return. In the past, Hamas has demanded the freedom of high-value prisoners like jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti, whose release has always been an Israeli red line. Trump's team is smartly focusing on freeing all the hostages first, alive and dead, denying Hamas leverage for the knottier bargaining to come: deciding how much territory Israel will retain as a buffer, when will Hamas disarm, and who will secure and govern Gaza in the future.
What has changed now is Trump's level of frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, fueled in large part by the country's unilateral attack on Qatar, the key intermediary in ceasefire negotiations with Hamas. Netanyahu's own spy chief, Mossad leader David Barnea, strongly opposed the targeted assassination, according to multiple reports confirmed by NBC News. And the strike missed its intended target, only wounding Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya, but killing his son.
It left al-Hayya defiant, potentially complicating the talks now underway. And it infuriated the other Arab leaders whose support for the Trump peace plan is critical to its success. As a result, Trump insisted that Netanyahu publicly apologize to Qatar before the negotiations could even proceed. For the first time, he also pressured the Israeli leader to halt his bombing to create a window for diplomacy.
After all the pain and suffering on both sides during the last two years – and the decades of misery that preceded Oct. 7 – is it even possible to build a foundation for a new, peaceful Gaza? Trump's grand vision goes even further, imagining an entire region transformed by Israeli's superior intelligence operations against Hamas, Hezbollah and their patrons in Iran, and the lure of an Israeli alliance with the economic powerhouses of the Arab Persian Gulf states.
The hope is that a region exhausted by war can finally experience the benefits of peace and economic security for Israelis and Palestinians alike.
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