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Friday's Bonus Story Copper Giant Freeport Slumps but Analysts See 33% UpsideWritten by Leo Miller. Published 9/26/2025. 
Key Points - Copper miners have beaten the S&P 500 by a solid margin over the past five years.
- With experts seeing copper prices riding higher long-term, giants like Freeport McMoRan have a strong tailwind.
- An unforeseen tragedy has caused Freeport shares to drop extensively, providing investors a chance to get in cheap.
Rare earth metal and gold mining stocks have drawn significant attention lately. However, many investors may not realize that companies producing another critical resource—copper—have also delivered impressive returns. Copper is the industrial metal that powers everything from renewable energy facilities to semiconductor manufacturing. Over the past five years, copper giants like Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) and Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO) have seen their share prices surge. As of the September 25 close, these stocks have produced total returns of approximately 144% and 246%, respectively—well above the S&P 500's roughly 118% gain over the same period. Bitcoin Breakout: What Most Investors Are Missing
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Here's how to claim weekly payouts from it. Click here to watch this urgent briefing. Shares of Freeport McMoRan, however, recently plunged—a combined 22% drop on September 24 and 25. Below, we break down what's been driving copper producers' rally, offer an industry outlook and explain the event that triggered Freeport's selloff. For long-term investors, Freeport now looks like a compelling value play. All data is as of the September 25 close unless otherwise noted. Copper: Surging Prices Likely to Continue Copper prices have climbed about 58% over the past five years, fueling much of the upside in miner stocks. That rally reflects rising demand and constrained supply, and many analysts expect prices to keep climbing for several reasons. Key factors include the growing need for electrical transmission as power grids expand in both developed and emerging markets, along with the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). EVs require three to four times as much copper as traditional gas-powered cars. Researchers at the University of Michigan and Cornell University estimate that copper prices will need to double well before 2050 to sustain demand—an outlook based on historical consumption trends and not accounting for potentially aggressive EV or renewable energy policies, which could push prices even higher. These dynamics support a bullish outlook for established copper miners like Freeport. Freeport's Tragedy Sends Shares Plummeting On September 9, Freeport announced that a mudslide had struck its Grasberg Block Cave underground mine in Indonesia, prompting an immediate halt to operations as the company searched for seven missing team members. Tragically, Freeport later confirmed that two of those workers had died and five remain missing. On September 24, the company provided updated production and sales guidance tied to the incident. Freeport now expects Q3 copper sales to be about 4% below prior estimates and gold sales to be roughly 6% lower. It also projects a significant reduction in production through 2025 and 2026—Indonesia output in 2026 could be 35% below pre-incident forecasts, with a potential return to previous levels by 2027. With such a sharp cut in output from one of its most important mines, investors reacted by selling shares aggressively. Yet this incident also illustrates how long-term investors can capitalize on temporary disruptions. If Grasberg production rebounds within two years, Freeport's long-term trajectory remains intact, but at a much lower share price today. Freeport Trades Well Below Peers, Analysts Eye +30% Upside Freeport currently trades at a forward enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of 5.8x, a useful metric for comparing companies with varying capital structures. By contrast, the average forward EV/EBITDA across 13 large-cap copper miners is 9.5x, indicating that Freeport is trading at a substantial discount to its peers. The MarketBeat consensus price target for Freeport stands at $47, implying about 33% upside. Among analysts updating their forecasts on September 24 and 25, the average target is $46. Keep in mind that most Wall Street targets look 12 months out, a period during which Freeport will still feel the impact of the Grasberg incident. As the mine recovers, the longer-term upside could be materially larger than current forecasts suggest. Nevertheless, investor sentiment may keep near-term pressure on the shares.
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