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Oracle Has Spoken: AI Changes Everything
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 9/10/2025.
Key Points
- Oracle's Q1 results and guidance update affirm a ballooning outlook for AI and hyperscale demand.
- Analysts are lifting their targets and forecast a move above $400.
- The guidance is mostly booked; investors should expect it to continue growing.
Anyone surprised by Oracle's (NYSE: ORCL) Q1 guidance update hasn't been paying attention to the steady stream of news. Oracle's forward-looking metrics have accelerated for over a year as it expands AI-enabled services for developers and enterprise applications.
The critical takeaway is that Oracle is no longer a niche database provider among many options. It has become a vital link in AI infrastructure globally and now stands as a hyperscaler to be contended with.
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Claim Your Free Trade Alert →The Q1 release highlighted strong demand from existing hyperscalers—Amazon, Google and Microsoft—and the robust growth they bring. Oracle chairman and CTO Larry Ellison reported that revenue from these three grew by more than 1,500% in Q1 and is expected to remain strong over the next few years.
He forecasts Oracle's datacenter footprint will more than double, driving substantial growth each quarter for years to come.
Oracle's Miss Overshadowed by Strong Guidance, Accelerating RPO
Oracle's Q1 results fell short of analysts' forecasts, but two factors more than offset the miss. First, total revenue rose 12.3% year over year to nearly $15 billion, accelerating sequential growth as demand for cloud infrastructure surged.
Second, the outlook was jaw-dropping, with guidance implying a 359% increase in remaining performance obligation (RPO).
CEO Safra Catz noted that most of this guidance is based on signed contracts, with more multi-billion-dollar hyperscale deals in the pipeline. In this context, management's outlook may even prove conservative, and growth could exceed these robust projections.
Segmentally, Oracle's cloud business was the standout. Q1 cloud revenue rose 28%, driven by a 55% jump in infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) and an 11% increase in software-as-a-service (SaaS). Within SaaS, Fusion ERP grew 17% and NetSuite 16%.
Margin news was mixed, but guidance offsets the concerns. Adjusted EPS climbed 6% to $1.47—just a cent below MarketBeat's consensus—despite top-line softness.
Looking ahead, profits are poised to improve significantly, with strong revenue leverage likely to boost earnings in upcoming quarters.
As of early September, analysts forecast Oracle's annual growth to accelerate to about 35% by 2028—a number we believe is conservative. Oracle expects its cloud business to deliver triple-digit growth for at least two years, then sustain a robust pace for the following three years.
With the cloud segment already accounting for roughly half of net revenue, sustaining triple-digit growth translates to about 50% growth relative to the Q1 baseline.
Oracle's Bullish Analyst Sentiment Expected to Strengthen in Q3 and Q4
Analysts' initial reaction to Oracle's guidance was stunned silence, followed by a wave of price-target hikes. Many lifted their targets by 20% to 30%, establishing a new high-end range that implies roughly a 70% gain from pre-release levels.
While the stock's 30% advance post-release has captured some upside, significant potential remains for investors. Analysts are likely to raise their targets further as Q3 and Q4 unfold, potentially boosting both the high-end and consensus estimates.
The stock's technical setup was bullish heading into the release, with the market in rally mode and MACD converging across multiple time frames. For more details, see our analysis of Oracle's 2025 rally.
The $75 (30%) gain represents about 75% of the indicated potential, suggesting Oracle could reach the $340 region before encountering its first major resistance level.
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