The Market’s Been Trained to Ignore Risk — Until It Can’t
Things Could Be Ready For A Shakeup
This market’s not dumb.
It’s just overconfident — because it’s been trained to be.
For the past 15 years, every wobble has been met with a Fed pivot, a stimulus package, or a reason to buy the dip.
Low rates made parking your money in CDs or bonds feel like punishment.
Inflation made it worse. So everyone — from baby boomers to hedge funds — piled into risk assets like they were the only game in town.
And for a long time? That worked.
But the system’s creaking.
During Monday’s Profit Panel, Geof Smith put it bluntly:
“They’ve had 15 years of training that you don’t go park your money in CDs or bonds… they’ve basically ruined that debt market.”
Chris Pulver added:
“Retail has been rewarded for buying every dip for the last two decades… but what breaks it?”
That’s the question.
Because something will break it.
Maybe it’s a hawkish Fed keeping rates higher for longer than expected.
Maybe it’s a trade deal falling apart — like Geof warned could happen if nothing gets put on paper.
Maybe it’s the AI hype train running out of steam.
Or maybe it’s just the weight of too many people on the same side of the boat — all chasing the same trades, the same stories, the same momentum.
Whatever it is, when that shift comes? The muscle memory that made people rich could turn into a trap door.
The warning signs are already there:
- Fund managers have been quietly reducing exposure since early July.
- Call volumes are at extreme highs.
- Volatility is so low it looks sedated.
As Chris put it:
“It’s a scary amount of complacency… and a scary amount of ‘there’s no alternative.’”
So here’s the real question:
If you’ve been riding this wave, do you have a plan for when it stalls?
Because the last thing you want is to realize you’ve been trained for the wrong environment — right as the game changes.
The next Profit Panel is starting right now — join us live and get a front-row seat to whatever the markets throw at us today:
To your prosperity,
The ProsperityPub Team
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