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Dear Reader, |
It is fortunate the nations of Israel and Iran do not share a common border. |
That is because their armies cannot clash directly. Neither is capable of invasion of the other. |
Thus their quarrels remain, to some extent at least, distant quarrels. |
These Middle East Hatfields and McCoys can merely hurl projectiles at one another… like hostile neighbors at opposite ends of a housing block. |
Open warfare can persist only so long as their respective projectile stockpiles endure. |
Iran supposedly stores some 3,000 ballistic missiles with Israeli reach. |
Iran likewise stores thousands of drones and cruise missiles of equal reach. |
Israel boasts a missile defense to parry the punches. Yet that shield suffers documented lacks. And that shield is far from cheap. |
Israel Can't Sustain It |
One lone Iranian missile raid may cost Israel over $1 billion in expended interceptor missiles. |
And these interceptors are highly complex weapons of war. They do not lend themselves to assembly line production. |
Lockheed Martin — for example — manufactures perhaps 500 Patriot missiles each year. |
By 2027 they intend to increase production to… 650 Patriot missiles each year. |
Thus their numbers are simply inadequate to needs. And they shall remain, by all reasonable accounting, inadequate to needs. |
Israel might normally acquire missile defense systems from the United States and its allies within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. |
Yet the bulking majority of such systems have long been routed to Ukraine. And few spares remain for desert duty. |
Thus the longer the warfare endures… the greater Israel's disadvantage… so far as I can discern. |
I have instructed my spies to investigate the balance of forces between Iran and Israel. I await their findings. |
Iran's Always About to Acquire a Nuclear Weapon |
Why did Mr. Netanyahu unleash his aerial marauders at this time? |
He claims the Iranians were months — or was it weeks? — from acquiring a nuclear device. |
Hence pending events compelled him to pounce. |
Yet were the Iranians months or weeks from acquiring a nuclear device? |
I do not know. Yet I do know I have heard similar claims for 30 years. No, I have heard similar claims for over 30 years. |
That is, this boy has cried his wolf! |
Again, I concede that wolf may have finally appeared upon the stoop. |
Yet my spies take the skeptical view. They are not half so convinced Iran pursues the nuclear device. |
Again, I do not know. |
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Will Israel Drag America in? |
If Iran truly verged upon the acquisition of a nuclear toy, evidence suggests it no longer verges upon the acquisition of a nuclear toy. |
Yet I understand portions of that apparatus are tunneled deep into mountains. Only the United States possesses bombs of adequate tonnage to go at them. |
And only the United States possesses the bomber aircraft to deliver them. |
Thus reports The Economist: |
Israel has thus far conducted limited attacks against Iranian nuclear sites. People familiar with planning for the scenario say that it probably lacks the capacity to destroy Fordow, the deeply buried enrichment plant, through traditional bombing, though it could block tunnel entrances and ventilation shafts. |
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Israel may be calculating that America can be persuaded to join the campaign with its heavy bombers, which carry the 30,000lb bombs capable of burrowing deeper, rather than leave the job half-done. |
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To date, the president has refused to bite Mr. Netanyahu's bait. |
I say "to date." |
"It's Possible We Could Get Involved" |
Should diplomacy fail, counseled Sen. Graham last week, it is "strongly" in the United States national security interest to "go all-in to help Israel finish the job." |
Diplomacy has failed. |
The president initially pledged to remain aloof from the conflict. That is, apart from passive support of the Israel operation. |
Yet this past weekend the same informed ABC that "it's possible we could get involved." |
Mr. Netanyahu is heart and soul for United States involvement — depend on it. |
That involvement would enlist the mightiest force upon Earth. |
Might the intelligence services of Israel even stage a "false flag" attack on United States interests… and finger Iran… to draw in the United States? |
Please understand: My tinfoil hat is stowed securely in its locker. There it shall remain. |
And so I deny any connection to conspiracy theory. |
The MAGA Wars |
The "America First" faction argues they elected him to extricate the United States from the "forever wars" sponsored by the "neocons." |
Mr. Tucker Carlson represents this MAGA faction. And he advises the president, strongly, to disengage from the Middle East row. |
And he has denounced factions of the coalition promoting another intervention. |
The pro-Israel, anti-Iran faction has returned fire. |
Trump drummer Mark Levin, for example, has trained his cannons directly upon Mr. Carlson. |
Mr. Levin claims his wing represents the real "America First." That is because the security of Israel benefits the United States. |
And the United States is far safer if Iran is denied the nuclear cudgel. |
The radio host decries Mr. Carlson's "isolationism" and "appeasement" of Iran's obvious evil. |
In between these factions stands President Trump. |
Where Stands Trump? |
Which step will the president take? |
I believe he will take the anti-escalationatory step. |
Why do I believe it? |
It is because he realizes a broader Middle East war likely elevates the oil price. |
And that an elevated oil price elevates the average consumer price. |
His domestic agenda of reduced inflation depends upon a reduced consumer price. |
Thus he realizes that war with Iran wars against his domestic interest. |
I hope I am correct. |
Yet I fear — as always — that I will be proven incorrect. |
Brian Maher |
for Freedom Financial News |
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