Why the Gold Stock Boom is Still an Early Stage Opportunity

Why the Gold Stock Boom is Still an Early Stage Opportunity The stocks I cover in my Golden Portfolio IV (GPIV) service are up about 300% in the past 18 months. If you’re a gold investor sitting on the sidelines, it might seem like stocks have risen too far, too fast to still be a bargain. But there's a much bigger trend at play here. Gold stocks in general, and the ones in my portfolios in particular have much further to run before they really start to catch up to the gold trend.  I know it seems crazy… but despite a big move in some of these stocks, they still aren’t keeping up with the underlying valuations I’m seeing.  I call this scenario the “Golden Anomaly.” Normally, you might expect for gold stocks to outpace gold price movements. Up until early last year, that wasn’t happening. Even though gold had already moved from a low of $1,600/oz in mid-2022 up to over $2,400/oz in early 2024, the stocks had barely gone anywhere.  During that same period, VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) fell by 16%, even as gold was up by 50%!  If that sounds strange, well, it gets stranger, because you have to keep in mind: most if not all of the business plans, the mine development, the exploration, the drilling, etc. was based off of $1,500 gold.  If you read any mining company prospectuses, that’s kind of where many gold companies built their business plans to be profitable at. That’s because everything in the gold mining business takes years to complete, whether it’s permitting or proving reserves or building a mine.  And many of the companies that I cover started their business plans 5-10 years ago, when gold was bouncing around between $1,000/oz and $2,000/oz.  There was no certainty that gold would stay above $1,500, but that’s where many mining projects can work out and stay profitable. At $2,000, you might expect the economics would attract investors.  But the truth is: many of these companies that have rallied over the past 18 months still haven’t even caught up with $2,000 gold yet… let alone $2,500 gold, $3,000 gold or $3,400 gold.  I’ll give you a few examples from my GPIV portfolio.  For example, at $3,000/oz gold, just one of my GPIV holdings will generate $1.952 billion discounted total after-tax free cash flow profits (NAV). But this company only trades for $107 million Enterprise Value (EV) which is simply market cap less cash plus debt.  That means buying the stock is like buying $20 for $1.  But it’s not just one stock in my portfolio.  I currently hold 5 companies in GPIV, and they’re all dramatically undervalued There’s a company worth $2.836 billion at $3,000/oz gold selling for $871 million.  Yet another GPIV project is worth $273 million. The stock only trades for $89 million.  Another project is worth $1.698 billion. The stock only trades for $535 million.  And one final company is worth $765 million. But the stock only trades for $245 million. Trump’s Economic Plan is Driving a “Golden Anomaly” in Tiny Gold Miners Trump’s plan to revalue gold and decrease the US debt burden is causing a major dislocation in four small gold miners. Some 30 million ounces of gold have left London for the US. If you want to know why - and why four little-known gold miners have made major moves upward in just the last 12 months while major gold ETFs have barely moved... Click Below. Discover Garrett Goggin’s Top Picks For The Coming Gold Mania! And these estimates are at $3,000/oz gold. I haven’t updated my estimates to the current price of close to $3,300 or the recent price of $3,500. When I do, my target prices will increase as underlying project value will rise.  These estimates move daily based on the gold price, underlying project value and the stock markets. As gold continues higher GPIV’s underlying projects will rise in value making the stocks worth more. There will be a time where GPIV holdings will trade at a premium to underlying asset value, but we're not even close to being there yet. All of that to say: despite a 300% run in GPIV, most of our positions have MUCH further to go before they even begin to catch up to their real underlying value. And they’re certainly not even close to being overvalued.  There are still amazing bargains in this space, and as gold keeps moving higher, it just means we have much further to go to catch up.  There’s still a lot of time to put money to work in these companies. We are only in the 3rd inning. Best, Garrett Goggin, CFA Chief Analyst & Founder, Golden Portfolio Golden Portfolio © 2025 201 N US Highway 1 STE D10 #1197 Jupiter, FL 33477 Your privacy matters to us! View our Privacy Policy to see how we protect your information.  You have received this e-mail as part of your free subscription with Golden Portfolio. If you no longer want to receive these e-mails, unsubscribe here. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice.