Friday, May 16, 2025

Wealth Taxes Are a Problem

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Wealth Taxes Are a Problem... Not the Answer

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club

Alexander Green

In my last column, I noted that - contrary to the claims of Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - one of the nation's biggest problems is not people who earn billions.

It's people who spend trillions, our elected representatives in Washington D.C. (Yes, Bernie and AOC are trillionaires when it comes to spending taxpayers' money.)

Yet the idea of imposing confiscatory taxes on high earners and billionaires is enjoying a moment in the political spotlight.

Supporters claim it's the solution to rising inequality and a surefire way to fill government coffers.

But once you get past the talking points, the reality is far less appealing.

Constitutionally questionable, economically harmful, and historically shortsighted - wealth taxes are a textbook case of good intentions producing bad results.

Let's start with the basics. The U.S. Constitution was deliberately written to restrict the federal government's taxing power.

And the Supreme Court has been clear: only realized income qualifies for taxation. In Eisner v. Macomber (1920), the Court drew a bright line - unrealized gains are not income.

Any effort to call an increase in net worth "income" runs smack into that precedent. And it's not just semantics.

Redefining wealth accumulation as taxable income presents three inescapable problems:

  1. Valuation. How do you fairly assess the taxable value of illiquid assets like family businesses or private equity holdings? You can't. The process becomes arbitrary and subjective, opening the door to legal disputes and bureaucratic overreach.
  2. Double taxation. Capital gains and estate taxes already apply to appreciated assets. A wealth tax would pile on an additional layer, making long-term investment less attractive and punishing wealth creation.
  3. Retroactivity. Trying to tax past asset appreciation as if it were current income violates the Fifth Amendment's protection against government takings without just compensation.

Even if such a tax were passed, it would invite lengthy court battles.

And with the current composition of the Supreme Court - and its originalist leanings - such a policy would not survive judicial review.

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However, confiscatory taxes don't just run afoul of the Constitution, they also fail the basic test of sound economics.

Global experiments with wealth taxes have all followed the same playbook, and the results are consistently destructive.

No. 1: Capital Flight and Investment Declines

Spain's 3% wealth tax led to a 20% exodus of millionaire capital within 18 months. Norway lost $3.4 billion in taxable wealth after a modest 1% increase. And France? Ten thousand millionaires left the country between 2002 and 2012 before the tax was ultimately scrapped.

No. 2: Market Distortion and Illiquidity

When people are forced to sell assets just to pay the tax bill, valuations get distorted. Investors turn to tax shelters instead of growth-focused ventures. And when assets are valuable but illiquid, taxpayers face liquidity crises.

No. 3: Broad Economic Damage

A 2% wealth tax in the U.S. would shrink GDP by more than 6% and eliminate over 1 million jobs within a decade. Wages would fall, capital investment would dry up, and the middle class - despite being "exempt" - would see an 8% drop in income.

It's not just theory. In Spain, inequality didn't budge under the wealth tax, but the economy shrank 4.3% annually. That's not redistribution. That's destruction.

We've seen this pattern before. The federal income tax was introduced in 1913 as a "modest" levy on the richest 1%, with rates starting at 1% and peaking at 7%.

Fast-forward to 2022: the top 1% still pays more than 40% of all income taxes. Yet middle-class households now face:

  • Marginal rates over 22% on income above $89,450
  • 15.3% payroll taxes, capped only for Social Security
  • Nearly 10% in additional state and local taxes in high-tax states

How did that happen? Three mechanisms...

  • Bracket creep. Inflation quietly pushes taxpayers into higher brackets.
  • Base broadening. Deductions get eliminated (as in 1986), making more income taxable.
  • Rate normalization. "Temporary" tax hikes (like those in WWII) become permanent.

The income tax started as a tax on the wealthy. It's now a system that hits the middle class harder than colonial taxes ever did relative to income. It's not unlikely that the same thing would happen with a wealth tax, hitting first billionaires, then millionaires, then the rest of us.

We're told billionaires don't pay their "fair share." The data says otherwise.

In 2022 - the last year that data is available - the top 1% paid $749 billion in federal income taxes. That's more than the bottom 90% combined.

When you add in state taxes, capital gains, estate taxes, and corporate taxes (which shareholders ultimately pay), high-income households face an effective tax rate between 40% and 55%.

Confiscatory taxes don't make the system fairer. They make it less efficient and more punitive.

That isn't just an unsound policy - it's a violation of the property rights on which this country was built.

Rather than chasing wealth taxes that are almost certainly unconstitutional and economically counterproductive, Congress should do what it rarely does: simplify the existing tax code, broaden the base through economic growth, and keep America competitive in global capital markets.

The Constitution's limits on direct taxation weren't written by accident.

They reflect a deep understanding that prosperity is driven by protecting individual rights - not punishing success.

That's the real way to build a stronger, freer, and more prosperous America.

Good investing,

Alex

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