Wednesday, May 28, 2025

The Bond Vigilantes Are Back

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The Bond Vigilantes Are Back

Matt Benjamin, Senior Markets Expert, The Oxford Club

Matt Benjamin

The bond vigilantes are back.

These are bond market investors who sell their holdings of Treasury securities when they don't like policies put forth by Congress or the White House, and by doing so they drive bond prices down and yields - which move in the opposite direction of prices - higher.

Essentially, these bond investors are voting on these policies with their wallets.

After Trump's April 2nd tariffs announcement - i.e., Liberation Day - bond investors began selling Treasurys en masse. This sent the 10-year Treasury price down and the yield up 0.34 percentage points. That was a huge move - and a huge vote of discontent about the new levies on imports.

And they got their way. Trump retreated on the issue a week later, suspending most of the tariffs for 90 days and beginning a process of negotiating others down.

(At the time, Trump said he wasn't influenced by the bond market, but others close to the Oval Office have said that he and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent were watching bond yields closely after the tariffs were announced.)

After Trump paused the tariffs on April 9, bond yields settled back down as investors got back into Treasurys.

They're Back

But suddenly the vigilantes are back...

And this time, they're angry about the massive tax bill now moving through Congress - with Trump's heady encouragement - which, if passed, will add trillions of dollars to the government's already sky-high debt level.

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