Thursday, May 29, 2025

The Best Insights On The Internet, 5/29/25


Priceless from experts at Schaeffer's and our trusted colleagues!
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05/29/2025

Charts We Love

Below is a chart of the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (monthly from 1981 to date). Equity investors take heed of a trend change in yields. After decades of declining interest rates and near-zero rate in 2020, the long-term trend in yields appears to be suggesting an environment of potentially rising yields in the years to come. Yields have been range-bound since early 2023, trading between 4% and 5%, forming a pennant formation.


In 2025, there could be a strong demand for refinancing maturing debt as this is the 5-year anniversary of the 2020 low, which could be costly. The KEY is the watch for a break of the 5.00% level here!!

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The latest short interest data was released earlier this week, updated through mid-May 2025.  We break it down by separating components of multiple indices, including the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Per the table below, short interest on SPX components increased 2.7 percent in the first half of May. Year to date, total short interest on SPX components has risen 33 percent to an annual and five-year high. as indicated in the bottom two rows of the table.


Finally, the chart gives us a visual representation of total SPX component short interest with an SPX overlay. As Senior VP of Research at Schaeffer's, Todd Salamone, has said from time to time in his weekly Monday Morning Outlook commentary, it is a highly shorted market that represent fuel if the bull market maintains its current bull trend.

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This data was published just this morning. It's interesting to see how bad the GDP really was this past quarter if you take out the investment category which helped balance out the percent change. Also, the change in prices doesn't look as bad as what a lot of people were saying or expecting when the all the tariff talk began.

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