Conquering the Market's Greatest Enemy

Keith Kaplan, CEO, TradeSmith

The first quarter of 2025 is behind us, and so far, this market has been tough to navigate.

Markets are evolving, but this year has introduced a wave of unprecedented uncertainty, leaving investors searching for stability.

Uncertainty is the market's greatest enemy, triggering volatility and knee-jerk reactions.

We saw that in the third quarter of 2024. Right before the election, the CBOE Volatility Index was soaring, investor sentiment was tentative at best, and we weren't sure if the Fed would surprise us with rate cut news (again).

But as soon as those unknowns disappeared, the market charged forward with a voracity we hadn't seen in months.

That's the power of knowledge to soothe that fear of the unknown.

Now we're facing a new series of unknowns that have spun the market into a panic: tariffs and trade war threats, stagflation fears, and concerns over the strength of the AI trade. Major indexes have fallen into correction territory, and there's no sign of things calming down soon.

We'll have to wait for some of 2025's big unknowns to play out on their own. But here at TradeSmith, we aren't panicking - we're ready to take on the market as it comes.

Because we have recently made the biggest breakthrough in our history...

We have uncovered a way to solve one of the biggest unknowns in trading: the absolute best times of year to buy and sell any asset...

And it's all based on measurable, tangible patterns.

Let me show you how...

Time to Plant Our Investments

To the naked eye, stocks seem to trade erratically, whipping upward one day only to plummet the next - even after good news.

But there are stocks that trade so consistently - rising (or falling) sharply during specific windows of time, year after year - that you can map out an entire year of great trades right now.

It's not unlike how farmers make their plans for the year. They don't know if it'll rain or snow next Wednesday, nor can they assume that every field they plant will produce a healthy crop.

But farmers do know when to plant for the best results, which (here in the Northern Hemisphere) is in spring.

This is a dependable seasonal pattern in nature that humans have used to our advantage for thousands of years... without knowing the first thing about Earth's orbit.

With only a glance at their calendars, farmers get to work prepping and planting their fields from March to May, tending the crops from June to August, then harvesting in September to November, depending on the crop.

In fact, farmers behave this way so reliably that it creates a specific cycle in agricultural prices. Every year when it's time to harvest, there will be downward pressure on the price of those crops, since supply will at least temporarily be greater than demand.

Just as dependably, stocks go through seasonal cycles, too - and like farmers, you can learn the best time to buy or sell any given stock, down to the very day you should place the order.

It's all thanks to our unique market analysis tool. It's a simple but powerful system that displays consistent historical patterns coming up for any asset in the TradeSmith database.

It's called the TradeSmith Seasonality Tool, and I believe it could be the biggest breakthrough in our 20-year history.

And with a new earnings season practically on our doorstep, a whole new slew of cycles is about to begin...

Make a Data-Driven Decision

Take Netflix (NFLX), for example.

The popular streaming stock tends to climb dramatically starting in January. That's the first seasonal window highlighted here in green on our TradeSmith Seasonality chart...

Chart: Seasonal chart for Netflix (NFLX)

View larger image

Then - after a springtime lull - it jumps from early May until mid-July. That's the second seasonal window, bordered in blue.

Why is January to April such a great time for Netflix? And why does it perk back up in the summer? Maybe it's the earnings reports... although those have been a mixed bag for the past few years. Perhaps Netflix has been releasing hot new shows early in the year or gets a bump from students going on summer vacation?

We can't always say why, but the why doesn't necessarily matter.

Instead, we can simply recognize that the stock price has risen 18%, on average, between May 8 and July 12 every single year during the past 15 years... and draw our own conclusions about the stock.

Will it play out the same way in 2025? There are never any guarantees. But it is encouraging to know that the stock's January-to-April bullish seasonal pattern played out as predicted with stunning accuracy, as you can see in the blue line on the chart above. The stock went up 23.3% from the start of the window to the peak.

And Netflix's summertime bullish seasonal pattern has a 100% track record of success.

Let's look at another example: Boston-based Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX).

Vertex is also looking like a good buy in the spring and summer; it already passed through two bullish seasonal windows earlier this year, with returns of 5.4% from January 1-21 and a gain of 5.2% from February 17 to March 4.

And Vertex tends to climb 8.8%, on average, from June 11 to July 21 - with an 80%-plus track record of gains during all three of these periods. In fact, the stock seems to be highly seasonal in how it trades, with several high-probability patterns playing out throughout the year, including one bearish pattern in mid-September:

View larger image

Really, I could go on all day showing you different seasonal patterns in various stocks.

With a quick TradeSmith screener for seasonality, I was able to find 43 of them with a high-probability bullish pattern starting between April and June, each averaging 10% to 20% gains in those first couple of months.

But I share this data just to show you how you can plan your trades on any stock... down to the day.

See, most people who recognize the power of seasonality can't get that specific about it. They can show you which sectors tend to perform best in the summer or the winter, sure, and they can attempt to explain why so you'll feel confident in their conclusion.

Even when you can plot out a whole year's worth of seasonality, as we do at TradeSmith, some days are still far better than others. We highlight those days for you as the green zones you saw on my charts here today.

And I don't mind telling you that this could be the biggest breakthrough we've ever had at TradeSmith.

This can allow us to recommend trades in 2025 (and beyond) more confidently than ever before - because we know which stocks will offer us high-probability trades months ahead of time.

On Tuesday, April 8, at 1 p.m. ET, I'll show you everything I can about this strategy and how we will use it to find you the most reliable stocks to trade... on their very best days of the year.

Click here to register to attend and learn more about these new seasonality signals - our major breakthrough - and try the tool for yourself, 100% free.

All the best,

Keith Kaplan
CEO, TradeSmith