| The following GAIN reports were released on December 17, 2024. _______ Corn prices in Brazil have been rising in recent months, driven by factors such as the increased prices in international markets and the devaluation of the Brazilian Real. As a result, corn production for MY 2024/25 (March 2025 – February 2026) is revised up to 128 MMT. Rice production is also expected to rise in 2024/25 due to the expansion of planted area, led by greater profitability from rice sales and improvements in yield. Meanwhile, Brazil experienced a substantial decline in the domestic wheat supply in 2023 and is not expected to recover this year, particularly due to a significant reduction in production in Paraná. Consequently, Post increased its forecast for wheat imports for MY 2024/25 (October 2024 – September 2025) to 6 MMT. Bulgaria is a small but growing market for U.S. food and agricultural products. In 2023, total Bulgarian food and agricultural imports were valued at $7.57 billion, down 12 percent from 2022, of which 1.3 percent, or $101.3 million, were sourced from the United States. During the first eight months of 2024, total food and agricultural imports decreased by 2.4 percent compared to the same period in 2023. However, imports of U.S. food and agricultural products grew by 19.4 percent during the same period. U.S. products are increasingly popular in Bulgarian hotels, restaurants, retail outlets, and among food processors. Consumer-oriented products with strong market potential include distilled spirits, food preparations, tree nuts, groundnuts, dried fruit, wine, beef, seafood products, craft beer, bio and organic products, and innovative food processing ingredients. In marketing year (MY) 2024/25, due to the increase in area planted and assuming regular yields, Post estimates that lemon production will grow by 2.6 percent, reaching 197,000 metric tons (MT). Chilean lemon exports will increase 3.3 percent, totaling 93,000 metric tons. In MY 2024/25, Post estimates orange production will increase by 2.2 percent and total 190,000 metric tons, due to higher orange area planted and assuming regular yields. Orange exports will follow and increase by 3.0 percent totaling 103,000 metric tons. In MY 2024/25, mandarin production will increase by 13.1 percent and total 250,000 metric tons due to higher area planted. Likewise, mandarin exports will reach to 218,000 MT which represents a 14.1 percent increase from MY 2023/24. Chile's hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) sector rebounded in 2023, with hotel occupancy reaching 51 percent and 9.1 million guests, driven by domestic tourism and normalized activities. Restaurants adapted to rising demand for healthier, sustainable options and embraced digital tools like online ordering and AI. Despite economic challenges, the sector showed resilience, leveraging innovation and an unsaturated market for growth. Travel and tourism contributed $32.5 billion to GDP, with 2024 prospects boosted by rising tourist numbers and international investments. On October 23, 2024, the Colombian Agricultural Institute (ICA) issued a resolution establishing a 3 percent threshold allowance for unapproved genetically engineered (GE) seed events, and a 5 percent threshold for animal feed. These thresholds will minimize the risk of disruptions to trade resulting from unintended low-level presence (LLP) of GE material approved in at least one country but not yet in Colombia. On December 3, 2024, the Ministry of Public Health and Social Assistance (MISPAS) of the Dominican Republic published a draft regulation for a Front of Pack Nutritional Warning Labeling (EFAN) for prepackaged foods. Modeled after similar systems in Latin America, the EFAN will require labels with warning messages such as "EXCESS" for nutrients like sodium, sugars, and fats, and "CONTAINS" for sweeteners. The regulation outlines specific criteria for determining "excessive" levels of these ingredients and prescribes label sizes based on packaging dimensions. The regulation provides an 18-month implementation period, with an additional 6 months for the use of complementary labels. With more than 84 million of the world's wealthiest consumers, Germany is the largest market for food and agricultural products in the European Union. The German market offers good opportunities for U.S. exporters of consumer-oriented food and agriculture products, particularly nuts, fish and seafood products, dried fruits, bakery products, and pulses. The HRI sector is one of the sectors of Germany's economy that was hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the end of COVID-19 restrictions, the sector's real turnover is still 10.8 percent below what it was in 2019, the last year before the pandemic hit, largely due to higher energy prices as well as rising costs for raw materials and personnel. In 2023, total sales of Japan's hotel, restaurant, and institutional food service industry (HRI) increased by approximately 16 percent compared to the previous year, reaching $226.2 billion. The surge in international tourists contributed to these increases in all categories within the hotel and restaurant industry. The U.S continues to be well positioned to continue supplying this segment with U.S. agricultural products accounting for nearly one quarter of the food that Japan imports. Reaching pre-pandemic levels in 2025, FAS Manila sees continued food service sales growth at 12 percent with the expansion of stores and customer queues in restaurants. As more consumers dine out, restaurant chains open new restaurants, cafes, kiosks, and bars, as well as franchise international restaurants in the Philippines. With international tourists surpassing government targets, a strengthened tourism industry with more than five million international visitors in 2023 boosts sales as events resume in hotels and event venues. Since 2021, U.S. consumer-oriented agricultural exports to the Philippines are the largest among Southeast Asia countries, providing opportunities for chicken, pork, and beef cuts, potato products, frozen vegetables, mozzarella, cheddar, Colby, and curd cheese, butter, bakery products, sauces and syrups, seasonings, nuts, non-alcoholic beverages, and wine. South Africa's hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) industry has mostly recovered since the COVID-19 pandemic; however, the sector continues to struggle from inflation, high food prices, and persistent unemployment. All the same, the food service sector in South Africa generated USD 5.5 billion in 2023, a 27 percent rise over the previous year. The industry increasingly recognizes the significant demand for healthier options at all levels. Large companies and chains, both domestic and international, dominate the highly developed South African fast-food market, which is bolstered by established and competitive franchising structures and a robust network of industry associations. Post has identified that the South African HRI offers market potential for a variety of American goods. Turkiye's HRI sector continues to grapple with rising inflation and economic uncertainty, while sales in terms of U.S. dollars have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels. The food and beverage sector has seen significant price increases, straining consumer purchasing power. Despite these challenges, the foodservice industry saw consumer spending rise to $18.6 billion in 2023, driven by higher menu prices and record demand from tourists eating out. In 2024, the food-to-go sector in the United Kingdom has emerged as a significant driver of growth within the broader foodservice industry, responding to changing consumer preferences for convenience and quick meal options. Demand for takeaway and on-the-go meals continues to rise as more individuals manage busier schedules. However, rising operational costs, including labor, energy, rent, and ingredient expenses, pose substantial challenges for the hotel restaurant and institutional (HRI) sector. Health remains a crucial trend with technology playing an increasingly vital role in shaping consumer preferences, including driving purchases from online reviews and social media influencers. In 2024, the European Union continues to be a key competitor to the United States in sourcing the HRI sector, with 24 percent of food consumed in the UK sourced from the EU. For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. |
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