Saturday, December 14, 2024

Canada Letter: The premiers and Trump’s tariff threat

Agreement on tightening the border, but not on how to respond if the president-elect follows through
Canada Letter

December 14, 2024

A Rare Cross-Canada Political Consensus Forms Against Trump's Border Threat

On Monday, Chrystia Freeland, the finance minister and deputy prime minister, will present her much-delayed fall economic statement just in time for the holidays. And the government has promised that it will address the issue that preoccupied politicians this week: how to respond to President-elect Donald J. Trump's threat to impose potentially devastating 25 percent tariffs on exports to the United States from Canada and Mexico unless the two nations tighten their borders.

Chrystia Freeland gesturing with both hands as she speaks at a lectern.
Chrystia Freeland, the finance minister and deputy prime minister, will lay out the cost of new border measures on Monday. Blair Gable/Reuters

In pushing for the tariffs, Mr. Trump has pointed to an "Invasion" of migrants and large quantities of fentanyl from Canada. Though that claim is not supported by federal data, Canadian leaders quickly agreed that calling his bluff would be unwise. Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta, told me this week that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "understands that with this president, he means what he says. And so when he says that the border is an issue — do something about it, we've got to take it a lot more seriously."

Mr. Trudeau and members of his cabinet gathered the premiers for a virtual meeting this week to lay out the federal government's plans for the border.

[Read: Drones, Dogs, Drug Labs: Canada's Plan to Avoid Trump's Tariffs Takes Shape]

They include drones and dogs along the border, technologies to detect fentanyl and the chemicals used to make it, expanded cooperation with provincial and municipal law enforcement agencies and improved intelligence sharing with the United States.

Ms. Smith, who is otherwise not given to praising Mr. Trudeau's government, called it a "pretty robust approach."

The next morning, Alberta unveiled its own plans for beefing up its 298-kilometer border with the United States. The border itself remains a federal responsibility, under the jurisdiction of the Canada Border Services Agency and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. But Alberta plans to amend a current law to declare the two kilometers north of the boundary a "critical border zone." That amendment, the province said, will allow provincial sheriffs to arrest without a warrant people in that area who they believe are involved in illegal border crossings or smuggling drugs or guns.

The province will deploy 51 uniformed and heavily armed sheriff's officers, 10 support workers like dispatchers and analysts, four drug-detecting dogs and 10 drones in the zone.

Mike Ellis, the province's public safety minister, told me that planning for the project had accelerated after Mr. Trump's threat.

"The concerns that President-elect Trump had raised were valid, but we also have some valid concerns as well," he told me. "It is a bit of a two-way street."

Mr. Ellis, a former sergeant in the Calgary Police Service, said that he wasn't concerned about constitutional challenges related to officers' questioning people in the border zone.

"If somebody is walking through a field in the middle of nowhere between a couple of entry points into the U.S., it's a valid reason to stop that person and question them," he said.

Cars approaching a border crossing that has the words
A U.S.-Canada border crossing. Graham Hughes/EPA, via Shutterstock

On the U.S. side, the only public development this week was Mr. Trump's mocking of Mr. Trudeau as the "Governor" of the "Great State of Canada."

[Read: Trump Calls Trudeau the 'Governor' of 'The Great State of Canada']

Where the consensus among the premiers and the federal government frayed a bit was around how Canada should respond if Mr. Trump isn't satisfied by the border measures and imposes the tariffs.

Mr. Trudeau and Ms. Freeland both suggested this week that Canada might retaliate with tariffs on imports from the United States.

But Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, had a more provocative idea. After appearing on American television networks and starting an ad campaign about Canada's importance to the United States, he suggested that Ontario could cut off electricity exports to American customers.

François Legault, the premier of Quebec, which is a major electricity exporter, flatly rejected that idea the next day. And Ms. Smith ruled out disrupting oil and gas shipments from Alberta, the United States' largest supplier of imported oil.

But when we spoke, Ms. Smith supported the idea of more conversation with the United States.

She said that a 25 percent tariff on Alberta oil would cause the price of gas to increase by $1 a gallon in the United States, according to a provincial estimate. "That's just going to hurt American consumers," she said.

"There aren't very many great options for where the U.S. can get heavy oil from other than us," she said. "Venezuela is an option. Iraq and Iran are options. I would put it to the American people that we're a much better friend and ally and neighbor than any of those nations."

Trans Canada

Alice Munro standing in a wooded, sunlit backyard.
Alice Munro, whose youngest daughter, Andrea Skinner, revealed in an essay for The Toronto Star during the summer that Ms. Munro's husband had sexually abused her. Ian Willms for The New York Times

Ian Austen reports on Canada for The Times and is based in Ottawa. Originally from Windsor, Ontario, he covers politics, culture and the people of Canada and has reported on the country for two decades. He can be reached at austen@nytimes.com. More about Ian Austen

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