Donald Trump swept the seven core battleground states, but it's the gains he made outside the swing states — especially in some of the biggest, bluest parts of the country — that have him poised to become the first Republican in 20 years to carry the national popular vote. These five jurisdictions help tell the story of where and how Trump expanded his coalition the most dramatically.
Osceola County, Florida
Population: 388,000
2024 result: Trump +1.5
2020 result: Biden +14
Just south of Orlando, this fast-growing county is one of only three in the state that are majority Hispanic, with Puerto Ricans by far the largest subgroup. Trump had already made big strides here four years ago, cutting what had been a 25-point loss in 2016 down to 14 points, and this time he outright won it. His particular strength with Puerto Ricans here is part of the broader national shift of Hispanic voters toward the Trump-led GOP. And it's doubly significant in light of the controversy over a joke about Puerto Rico at Trump's Madison Square Garden rally, which Democrats had argued would erode Trump's Puerto Rican support.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here to receive it weekdays.
Lawrence, Massachusetts
Population: 89,000
2024 result: Harris +17
2020 result: Biden +49
Don't be deceived by the margin: This was a disastrous result for Democrats in Massachusetts' most heavily Hispanic city. When Trump ran in 2016, he was crushed in Lawrence, an old mill city on the Merrimack River, by 66 points. Four years ago, he brought it down to 49 points. His 57%-40% defeat this time around is the first time a GOP presidential candidate has cracked 40% here since 1988, back when the city was still majority white. Dominicans are the largest Hispanic subgroup in Lawrence, demonstrating the breadth of Trump's gains.
Loudoun County, Virginia
Population: 420,000
2024 result: Harris +16
2020 result: Biden +25
In the D.C. metro area, suburban/exurban Loudoun's population growth and political shift toward Democrats in recent years is a key reason for Virginia's emergence as a reliably blue state in presidential elections. But last week, Loudoun took an unexpected turn back in the GOP's direction, with Trump erasing nearly 10 points from his 2020 deficit. One reason: The county has an unusually high concentration of Asian Americans (21%), another nonwhite group with which Democrats' previously massive advantage shriveled this election.
Rockland County, New York
Population: 341,000
2024 result: Trump +12
2020 result: Biden +2
Not far from New York City, Rockland has the highest concentration of Jewish residents of any county in America (nearly 1 in 3). The Trump campaign sought to channel a backlash over left-wing pro-Palestinian protests into new Jewish support, and while the national exit poll showed no meaningful GOP traction, Rockland's 14-point swing toward Trump suggests there was movement here. Part of this may be because of the county's sizable Orthodox community, which leans more to the right than the Jewish population as a whole. But given that the Jewish vote is so small and difficult to measure nationally, Rockland's result raises the possibility that Trump may have had more success with this group than the exit poll captured.
McKinley County, New Mexico
Population: 73,000
2024 result: Harris +25
2020 result: Biden +39
Three out of 4 McKinley residents are Native American, and across the county the Navajo language is still widely spoken. Here and elsewhere, Native Americans have long been a heavily Democratic constituency. But Trump's gains with nonwhite voters are evident here, too. His 25-point loss in McKinley is actually the closest a Republican has come here in 40 years. The possibility of a shift like this is part of why the Trump campaign made a late push in New Mexico, even though he did fall 6 points short statewide.
No comments:
Post a Comment