Milk production for 2025 in Australia is forecast to increase by 1.1 percent to 8.8 million metric tons (MMT) after strong growth of 2.7 percent for 2024 at an estimated 8.7 MMT from previous years of declining production. Expectations for 2025 would be higher if not for challenging dry conditions in parts of Australia's dairy-producing regions. Fresh milk consumption is forecast to reverse a five-year decline. Factory use of milk is expected to rise, with much of it forecast to be diverted to cheese production. Skin Milk Powder (SMP) and Whole Milk Powder (WMP) production is forecast to remain stable, but there is a slight increase in butter production. Exports for SMP, WMP, and butter are forecast to moderate in 2025 after strong results so far in 2024.
Brazil's MY 2024/25 total coffee production is forecast at 66.4 million bags, 0.2 percent higher than the previous season. This timid growth comes in the aftermath of a strong period of adverse weather conditions in the main producing regions, which led to a decrease in initial estimates for the season. As a result, the country has experienced a decline in robusta production, which was offset by a slight increase in the expected production of arabica, which represents most of the total coffee harvest. Meanwhile, coffee exports in 2024 have hit record highs as Brazil expands its share of the global market, occupying a gap left by other large producers, such as Vietnam and Indonesia.
FAS Bogota estimates marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 Colombian coffee production at 12.9 million bags green bean equivalent (GBE), 1.1 percent higher from the previous year revised figure, reflecting continued recovery from favorable weather conditions and producers adopting improved agronomic practices to mitigate climate change shocks. Exports are projected to reach 12 million bags GBE, while total coffee imports are estimated at 1.4 million bags GBE to reflect stable consumer demand. While the United States remains as Colombia's top coffee export market, China is rapidly becoming a significant importer of Colombian coffee.
African Swine Fever (ASF) remains a significant challenge in the Dominican Republic. Despite initial emergency response efforts, the disease is now endemic, with outbreaks showing an upward trend in 2024 and continuing to consistently appear throughout the country. A decline in local production due to the disease continues to provide increased export opportunities for U.S. pork & pork products to the Dominican Republic, which are looking to set another record in 2024 after reaching 96,010 Metric Tons (MT) in 2023.
The beef sector in Israel is growing and is heavily reliant upon imports. Israel's lack of grazing land for cattle and an increasing population are the main factors contributing to the growth in demand for beef imports. However, exporting beef to Israel comes with strict Kosher requirements, making it difficult for some companies.
Turkiye's commercial apple production in MY 2024/25 is forecast to fall to a five-year low because of unusually dry and warmer weather conditions, which growers say is caused by climate change. Even though production is down, apple exports are forecast higher year-on-year and expected to be the third largest on record. In contrast to apples, commercial pear production is projected to reach a record as weather conditions were better in the key pear-growing areas. With higher production, pear consumption and exports are likewise forecast higher. Commercial grape production is projected higher than last year, but still below the long-term average because of losses resulting from mildew disease.
The Government of Vietnam (GVN) issued Decree 144/2024/ND-CP on November 1, 2024, lowering Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariff rates on soybean meal to one percent from two percent. The Decree will enter into force on December 16, 2024.
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