News Information and Media Site: Will the polls be off again?

From the Politics Desk

Oct. 22, 2024

The polls were off in 2020. Will they be again in 2024?

By Steve Kornacki

Four years ago at this time, polling pointed to a relatively easy victory for Joe Biden. On this day in 2020, for example, he led Donald Trump by 7.9 points nationally in the RealClearPolitics polling average and held advantages in all of the swing states, where some surveys even showed double-digit advantages for Biden.

Biden, of course, did go on to win the election, but by a smaller popular vote margin (4.5 points) and an exceedingly narrow one in the Electoral College, where a total of about 43,000 votes across three states separated him from a 269-269 tie that likely would have led to a Trump victory in the House of Representatives.

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The race appears far tighter this time, with Kamala Harris just 2 points ahead of Trump in our current national polling average, and with the results in all seven battleground states within 2 points. It could be that the race is just as close as these numbers indicate and that polling this year is more accurately capturing the state of play.

But the possibility of another polling miss hangs in the air. If there's a repeat of 2020 (and 2016) and the full extent of Trump's support is again being missed, then he's headed for a decisive victory. And if it's Democratic support that this time is somehow being underestimated, then it's Harris who's actually in great shape right now.

Why Trump's support was underestimated in the past is a matter of debate. But where it was missed is clear: states with large populations of white voters without four-year college degrees:

Wisconsin, where the polls were off by the most, has the highest concentration of white residents without college degrees of any battleground state. Michigan has the second highest. This was a key reason national polls were off, too.

Is it happening again? Here's how the education divide among white voters looks in an average of current polls compared with what happened in 2020:

As you can see, Trump's margin with noncollege-educated white voters ended up being higher than the polls suggested. But his current 27-point advantage is almost equal with that 2020 result.

Read one way, this buttresses the idea that polling is now largely capturing Trump's support among white voters without college degrees. Then again, given how tight the polling is, it wouldn't have to be off by nearly as much this time to make a big difference.

From Harris' standpoint, part of the hope now is that polling is undercounting her support with what have long been core Democratic constituencies: Black, Hispanic and young voters. Here's how these groups are breaking now compared with what played out in 2020:

The concern for Harris, obviously, is that her Hispanic support is far lower than Biden's was, both in the 2020 polls and the final election results. But much of Trump's new Hispanic support comes from younger voters who have not participated at high levels in past elections. If these voters end up sitting on the sidelines in this election, Harris could end up faring much better with Hispanics than the polling now shows. It's also somewhat encouraging for her that Biden performed better in the election with Black voters than polling had suggested. Harris will need this to happen again.

Harris is also hoping that, in the post-Dobbs environment, her support among women is deeper than polling now finds. While current polls show her with an 11-point advantage with women, Biden had an 18-point edge in the 2020 polls and finished with a 15-point lead in the actual election.

Polling by gender has bounced around dramatically in this campaign, with some surveys showing historically wide gender gaps and others relatively modest ones. It averages out to an 11-point Harris lead among women, but plenty of polls show a much bigger advantage for her. If those polls are right, it could mean a Harris showing on Nov. 5 that is much stronger than the polls are now suggesting.

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Harris says 'of course' her team is prepared if Trump declares victory before votes are counted

By Alex Seitz-Wald

In an interview with NBC News' Hallie Jackson on Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris said she's preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump declares victory before the votes are counted in this next month's election.

Sitting down at her official residence in the Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C., Harris said her campaign is prepared for the possibility that the Republican former president tries to subvert the election, but that she's focused on trying to beat him first.

"We will deal with election night and the days after as they come, and we have the resources and the expertise and the focus on that," Harris said.

When pressed on the possibility that Trump tries to declare victory before the votes are counted and a winner is projected by the news networks and other media outlets, Harris said she is concerned.

"This is a person, Donald Trump, who tried to undo the free and fair election, who still denies the will of the people who incited a violent mob to attack the United States Capitol, and 140 law enforcement officers were attacked, some who were killed. This is a serious matter," Harris said, referring to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol where Trump supporters tried to prevent the certification of President Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 election.

Democrats brace for a possible crack in the blue wall

By Natasha Korecki, Carol E. Lee and Monica Alba

The "blue wall" states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have paved the path to the White House for the last two Democratic presidents.

But with just 14 days until the Nov. 5 election, there are concerns within Kamala Harris' campaign about whether the vice president can claim all three states.

Recent discussions have centered on the possibility of an anomaly happening this year with just part of the blue wall breaking its way. The conversations have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin "fall" to Donald Trump while the two other states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign's strategy.

Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would not reach the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another battleground state or possibly two.

Also potentially troubling for Democrats: What Harris' campaign had thought was one of its best insurance possibilities may also be in peril. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers in interviews pointed to the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada as a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes.

While North Carolina is still in the campaign's sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said.

🗞️ Today's top stories

🗳️ Vote watch: Election officials are taking increasingly drastic steps to ensure the security of poll workers and voters, from donning bulletproof vests to placing snipers on roofs to deploying drones for surveillance. Read more →

🍦 Not stopping for ice cream: Amid heightened security concerns and mounting staffing issues within the Secret Service, Harris and Trump have been forced to curtail smaller events, like drop-ins to a diner or ice cream shop. Read more →

🤠 Deep in the heart: Harris is scheduled to travel to Texas, which her campaign referred to as "ground zero of extreme Trump abortion bans," on Friday. Read more →

☑️ Silver State showdown: Republicans see an opening with Latino voters in Nevada, but Democrats tout advantages in consistent Spanish-language messaging and an active ground game. Read more →

🎓 Back on campus? Harris plans to spend election night in Washington, D.C., with her campaign eyeing her alma mater, Howard University, as a possible venue for her to speak from, according to seven people familiar with the planning. Read more →

🎙️ The boys are back in town: Trump is set to appear on Joe Rogan's podcast in his latest bid to appeal to young male voters. Read more →

🎸 Born to run: Bruce Springsteen will perform at Harris campaign rallies in Atlanta and Philadelphia. Read more →

🗽 Empire State of mind: After New York helped deliver Republicans the House in 2022, both parties see the path to the majority running through the blue state once again this time around. Read more →

📕 Book club: Usha Vance has been a near-constant presence by the side of her husband, JD Vance, on the trail, often with a book in hand. Her extensive reading list provides a glimpse into the life of someone who has otherwise been a quiet presence in the campaign. Read more →

Follow live coverage from the campaign trail →

Watch: Harris: 'We have the resources and expertise' to handle post-election challenges from Trump