Upshot: Analysis of our latest polls

Also: What fueled Hurricane Milton

View in browser|nytimes.com October 10, 2024 Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times Why Democratic Senate Control Seems to Be Slipping Away A Times/Siena poll shows Jon Tester behind by seven points in Montana, while Colin Allred trails Ted Cruz by four in Texas. By Nate Cohn Nicole Craine for The New York Times A Florida Poll That Should Change the Way You Look at the Election A big Trump lead in the state paradoxically adds to evidence of a smaller Electoral College edge for him. And a choice by pollsters may be causing them to miss state shifts. By Nate Cohn Feedback For suggestions on how we can improve this newsletter, write to theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com. If you have a compelling data set you'd like us to pursue, send it to dear.upshot@nytimes.com. WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/raymond-zhong">Raymond Zhong</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/mira-rojanasakul">Mira Rojanasakul</a> See the Ocean Heat Fueling Hurricane Milton, in One Chart The waters of the Atlantic Ocean have been abnormally warm, providing copious amounts of energy that can intensify storms. By Raymond Zhong and Mira Rojanasakul The New York Times Tracking Hurricane Milton See the likely path, evacuation orders and wind arrival times for Milton. By Camille Baker, William B. Davis, Madison Dong, Judson Jones, John Keefe, Joey K. Lee, Zach Levitt, Bea Malsky and Veronica Penney Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT Lily Boyce How to Win the Electoral College Explore possible outcomes in the battleground states to see how Harris or Trump could reach 270 electoral votes and the White House. By Lily Boyce, Jon Huang and Blacki Migliozzi Tyler Sloan and Amy Sterling for FlyWire, Princeton University After a Decade, Scientists Unveil Fly Brain in Stunning Detail Scientists have mapped out how 140,000 neurons are wired in the brain of the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster. By Carl Zimmer Like this email? Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up here. Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for The Upshot from The New York Times. To stop receiving The Upshot, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018