The Morning: The 2024 stakes for judges

Plus, the candidates' closing arguments, floods in Spain and a haunted house.

View in browser|nytimes.com October 31, 2024 Happy Halloween. Today, we're covering how the election could change the courts — as well as the candidates' closing arguments, floods in Spain and a haunted house. —David Leonhardt Inside the Supreme Court. Amir Hamja/The New York Times THE STAKES Holding court By Ian Prasad Philbrick I'm a writer for The Morning newsletter. On Tuesday, Americans will elect the next president and hundreds of Congress members. In doing so, voters will also shape the third branch: the judiciary. Federal judges — whom the president picks and the Senate confirms — have become even more powerful in recent years as a polarized Congress has failed to pass major laws on many issues. As a result, the judiciary has shaped policy on abortion, immigration, guns, voting rights and more. Today's newsletter explains how the election could change the courts for decades to come. The Supreme Court Donald Trump appointed three Supreme Court justices as president. If he wins next week, he may get more appointments than Kamala Harris would have gotten. History suggests one reason: In recent years, judges have tended to retire in time to let the president they prefer fill their seats. The oldest sitting justices today — Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 74 — are Republican appointees. If they stepped down during a second Trump administration, the president could choose younger replacements who would cement conservative control of the court for decades. The Senate is another reason. Republicans seem more likely to control the chamber next year. If they do, they can block Harris from filling a vacancy, much as they did Barack Obama in 2016. "If he were re-elected, he'd probably get to appoint one if not two members to the United States Supreme Court," Harris said of Trump last week. She did not say how many appointees she may get if she wins. Harris also wants to enact term limits and an ethics code for the court, given the revelation that Thomas and Alito accepted luxury gifts without disclosing them. That's unlikely if Republicans control the Senate — and maybe even if Democrats do, thanks to the filibuster. Courts, remade What about lower courts? Judges can serve for life. So the more a president appoints, the more he or she can shape the country. The Supreme Court hears only about 80 cases per year, meaning that lower courts are often the final arbiter on many issues. They set precedent on criminal justice, bankruptcy proceedings, corporate disputes and antitrust enforcement, and on whether federal laws and rules are constitutional. In a typical four-year term, a president replaces about one-quarter of the country's 870 active federal judges, across both federal district and appeals courts. Trump filled 231 vacancies, and President Biden may equal that number before the next Congress takes over. Partly as a result, Republican and Democratic presidents have each appointed about half of the judges on federal courts. The appeals courts lean slightly Republican, while the district courts lean Democratic (if you count senior judges who work less but still hear cases), according to Russell Wheeler of the Brookings Institution. The next president will likely be able to tip that balance, letting one party's appointees make up a clear majority of judges. By The New York Times The next president will also alter the courts' racial, ideological and professional makeup. Under Trump, 76 percent of judicial nominees were men, and 84 percent were white, according to an analysis by my colleagues. Many had ties to the Federalist Society, a conservative legal group. Biden's appointees have been 63 percent female and 61 percent nonwhite. He has prioritized nominees who served as public defenders and civil rights lawyers, and his picks have tended to be more liberal than those of past Democratic presidents. A second-term Trump might have the edge over a first-term Harris because a Republican-controlled Senate could block some of her appointees. Perhaps moderate Harris nominees would get through, though: Most of Biden's appointees received bipartisan support. Another potential area of agreement is a bipartisan measure to incrementally increase the total number of federal district judges to ease rising caseloads. The bill passed the Senate in August but has yet to receive a House vote. Harris hasn't specified whom she might nominate if given the chance. Trump boasts about his first-term nominees and suggests he'll name more people like them. What's next Even as the election will shape the judiciary, the judiciary may also shape the election. As in 2020, Republicans and Democrats have already asked federal judges, including those on the Supreme Court, to resolve disputes about ballots before Election Day. Their rulings could determine the outcome of a close race. Perhaps related, Americans' faith in the courts has eroded in the Trump era. Unpopular rulings on elections, abortion, presidential immunity, guns and other issues — as well as the criminal cases against Trump, which will likely move forward if he loses — have driven down public trust in the Supreme Court and the justice system, polls suggest. That decline may be hard to reverse no matter which candidate prevails — especially if the courts play a role in deciding the winner. For more The Supreme Court let Virginia remove about 1,600 people suspected of being noncitizens from its voter rolls. The Justice Department had argued that the purge could remove eligible voters. Pennsylvania Democrats sued Erie County, alleging that voters who requested mail ballots hadn't yet received them or had received the wrong one. The Stakes A Morning newsletter series on how Harris and Trump view some of the biggest issues facing the country. Presidential power Taxes Immigration Abortion Climate Health care THE LATEST NEWS Democratic Campaign Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania. Ruth Fremson/The New York Times Harris visited three battleground states to deliver her closing argument: that she can unite the country. "The vast majority of us have so much more in common than what separates us," she said in Raleigh, N.C. Harris distanced herself from Biden's remarks that seemed to call Trump supporters "garbage." Biden clarified that he had meant a Trump surrogate who made a racist joke. Harris said, "I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for." Bernie Sanders, campaigning for Harris, has taken a darker tone than she has. He denounced elites and the status quo as "disgraceful" and "disgusting." Republican Campaign Donald Trump in Wisconsin. Doug Mills/The New York Times Trump wore a garbage collector's vest during a Wisconsin rally, criticizing Biden's "garbage" comment. Brett Favre, former Green Bay Packers quarterback, campaigned with him. House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested that Republicans would try again to repeal the Affordable Care Act if Trump wins. "No Obamacare?" a voter asked. "No Obamacare," Johnson responded. Trump's campaign disavowed the remark. In his appeals to Black and Latino voters, Trump is pitting them against immigrants and sometimes against each other. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told supporters that Trump had promised to put him in charge of public health agencies. A notable number of former Trump aides have turned on him and said he should not be president again. Here is a list, with their comments. Voting Michigan officials charged a noncitizen for registering and illegally voting in Ann Arbor. They called it "an extremely isolated and rare event." Michigan also removed a local election official who said he planned to count ballots by hand, despite rules against it. The official has ties to activists who spread conspiracies about voting machines. The police in Florida arrested an 18-year-old Trump supporter for threatening two Harris supporters with a machete at an early-voting site. More on 2024 Americans pick their president, but their choice will affect the rest of the world. Times foreign correspondents explain the stakes for Europe, China, global trade and more. Republicans have softened their positions on abortion, competitive House races show. Americans are increasingly moving to areas where neighbors share their political views, a Times analysis found. International Ukrainians in Sumy, Ukraine, after arriving from Russian-occupied areas. Mauricio Lima for The New York Times Ukrainians say Russia is imposing brutal repression — including torture, detention and re-education — in regions under Moscow's control. At least 95 people have died in floods in eastern Spain. Many others are still missing, and rescuers are searching for bodies. Shanghai cracked down on Halloween celebrations, rounding up revelers — including some dressed as Kim Kardashian and Donald Trump — apparently to prevent gatherings turning political. Other Big Stories The U.S. relies on SpaceX to build its military and spy technologies. Elon Musk's plunge into politics complicates those deals. Consumers are spending and inflation is cooling, a report on the U.S. economy shows. Opinions Massachusetts voters will consider whether to do away with the state's high school exit exam. Keeping it would make sure students were ready to graduate, Jessica Grose argues. A pro-independence candidate running for governor of Puerto Rico gives Puerto Ricans hope, Yarimar Bonilla writes. Here's a column by Nicholas Kristof on pro-Palestinian voters against Harris. Enjoy open access to the election hub in The Times app. Explore polls, analysis, reporter videos and all other coverage featured in the election hub, for a limited time. Ready? Download the app. MORNING READS In New York.  Tony Cenicola/The New York Times Fake blood is expensive: This haunted house in TriBeCa costs $45 to enter. The owners explained what goes into that ticket price. Trick or treat: You may eat a lot of sugar this week. See how it will impact your body. Social Q's: "Our fun friend bails on dinner dates but still sends her dull husband." Lives Lived: John Gierach, a fly fisherman, was as skilled with words as he was with a rod and reel. Gierach wrote hundreds of articles and more than 20 books, including "Even Brook Trout Get the Blues" and "Sex, Death and Fly-Fishing." He died at 77. SPORTS Mookie Betts connects for the Dodgers. Major League Baseball World Series: The Los Angeles Dodgers are champions after beating the New York Yankees 7-6 in Game 5. N.F.L.: The Carolina Panthers announced that Bryce Young, the No. 1 draft pick in 2023, would remain the starting quarterback for now, despite Andy Dalton's return to practice. N.B.A.: Bronny James, son of LeBron James, scored his first career points last night in Cleveland, where the 20-year-old grew up. ARTS AND IDEAS Lionsgate "Saw," the horror movie about a serial-killer-slash-taskmaster, was released 20 years ago this week. The film's sequels ratcheted up the disgust, and reveled in it, earning them the label "torture porn." But the original "Saw" was more interested in morality than gore, Annie Aguiar writes. Read her retrospective. More on culture In China, a rock band of farmers has become popular. Late-night hosts joked about Biden's "garbage" comment. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Mark Weinberg for The New York Times Bake Nigella Lawson's monster cookies for an easy Halloween treat. Counter the effects of sitting all day. Replace your shower curtains. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was indictment. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections, Strands, and a bonus crossword for Halloween. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —Ian P.S. Curious about how The Times is covering this election? Our journalists answered readers' questions about fact-checking, biases and more. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018