In 2024, Brazil recorded extreme weather events including the intensification of heat waves in several regions. Although the impacts of the fire outbreaks in the sugarcane production are difficult to estimate, the losses caused directly by the fires should not affect Brazil´s total sugar production in the MY 2024/25. Post maintains the forecast for Brazil´s MY 2024/25 sugarcane crush at 645 million metric tons (MMT), revising down the sugarcane production in the CS due to adverse climate conditions to 590 MMT, a decrease of 1.7 percent (600 MMT). Post is revising up the forecast for the NNE production to reflect updated data and the increase in productivity caused by good weather conditions from 44 MMT to 55 MMT. Post revises down the production of sugar in Brazil for MY2024/25 from 44 MMT to 43 MMT raw value, due to the worsening of the quality of the sugarcane. Brazil remains the second-largest recipient of the U.S. sugar tariff-rate quota, receiving an allocation of 155,993 MTRV in FY2025.
On September 19, 2024, the Government of Egypt filed an eighth addendum to the World Trade Organization's (WTO's) Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) -- G/TBT/N/EGY/313/Add.8 -- informing interested parties that the time period during which imported milk and dairy products that are not accompanied by a Halal certificate will be permitted to enter Egypt has been extended until December 31, 2025.
The European Union (EU) follows a complex, rolling system of review for active ingredients and Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) in food. For agricultural inputs, U.S. farmers must know early in the process of review to prevent or mitigate the loss of, and/or access to, chemical inputs. The information in this document provides interested stakeholders with advance notice of those active ingredients under review, highlighting those substances undergoing new restrictions or that may not be renewed. This is a quarterly update from September 2024.
EU27 beet sugar production for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is projected to increase slightly by 4 percent to approximately 15.4 million metric tons (MMT), driven by favorable market conditions and expanded planting areas. However, varying weather conditions and phytosanitary issues have created uncertainties around yields. Consumption remains stable at 16.5 MMT. Imports are forecast up to 2.4 MMT due to rising imports from Ukraine, while exports are expected to drop to 1.1 MMT, down from 1.7 MMT in MY 2023/24. Isoglucose production is forecast to increase, benefiting favorable sugar and input prices.
Bite size local news, Post reports and activity summaries wrapped by ATO Hong Kong. In this issue: ATO Hong Kong teams up with Hong Kong Polytechnic University to train student chefs and showcase U.S. ingredients; Cotton Council International brings Cotton USA Sustainability and Transparency Seminar to Hong Kong; the Centre for Food Safety cracks down on illegal cross-border trade in regulated foods; Muslim leaders push for government halal certification of eateries, and Hong Kong prepares for up to 150,000 attendees at annual Wine and Dine festival.
This report serves as a follow up to FAS Jakarta's August 14 and October 3, 2024 reports on Indonesia's expanded "prior notice" requirements. Exporters must submit a prior notice notification in the Indonesia Quarantine Authority's (IQA) new online system, on a per shipment basis, for all U.S. commodity shipments departing on or after October 6, 2024. The User Manual, provided in English by IQA, is provided within the report. FAS Jakarta has added questions and answers based on our assessment of information gathered from IQA to help U.S. exporters comply with the prior notice requirement. Please note that this guidance is based on information gathered informally and may be subject to change.
On August 14, 2024, FAS Jakarta published a report summarizing an Indonesian Quarantine Agency notification to the WTO which stated that exporters must submit "prior notice" before shipping all agricultural commodities. The requirement to provide "prior notice" of shipments was previously limited to plant products (e.g. fresh horticultural products and grains) but the notification indicated this requirement would be extended to all agricultural products (e.g. meat, dairy, fishery products, and seeds). The U.S. Government submitted detailed comments regarding its concerns about this measure. IQA confirmed on September 30, 2024 that this requirement will come into effect on October 6, 2024. Post is actively working to ascertain more details on the implementation of this measure and provide feedback to IQA.
Israel is a net importer of all major categories of food products. The Israeli food retail sector was estimated to be $20.7 billion in 2023, and during the same year, Israel imported around $4.96 million of consumer-oriented products. However, towards the end of 2023, consumer-oriented agricultural imports slightly decreased because of a disruption in shipping due to Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. With the ongoing regional conflict, Israeli preferences for consumer-oriented food products have changed to match their changing lifestyle. While many consumers are very price sensitive, others are willing to pay a premium for high quality products. However, as prices remain high, the Israeli government continues to reform its food legislation in efforts to reduce prices and streamline imports.
Post forecasts Malaysia's palm oil production in MY 24/25 at 19.2 million metric tons (MT), a decrease from MY 23/24 projections due to delayed effects of the El Niño season. Recent tax changes for India's imports of vegetable oil and Indonesia's exports of palm oil contribute to an expected decline in palm oil exports in MY 24/25 to 15.7 million MT. A competitive vegetable oil market and decreasing soybean complex prices from the United States are expected in MY 24/25.
New Zealand has signed a free-trade deal with the United Arab Emirates - the fastest agreement the country has ever reached. After negotiations began in May, the country's trade negotiators concluded the deal in four months.
Consumer trends in Nicaragua are shifting towards modern retail channels as remittance flows increase. Supermarkets are expanding rapidly, with one grocery store chain opening eight new locations in 2024. Given the country's high price sensitivity, affordable protein sources like pork and chicken meat are in high demand. U.S. agricultural exports to Nicaragua, particularly consumer-oriented products, increased 27 percent in calendar year 2023, supporting the expansion of the retail sector.
The Norwegian Exporter Guide gives an overview for prospective U.S. exporters who would like to get acquainted with the Norwegian food retail and export market. It provides an economic overview of Norway, its food industry, along with current trends and developments, as well as insights on growing markets and prospects. Furthermore, it also includes references to useful legislation and resources.
FAS Manila forecasts Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 rice imports to reach 4.60 million metric tons (MT), given the implementation of Executive Order No. 62, 2024 that reduced rice tariff rates from 35 to 15 percent. FAS Manila forecasts rice milled production to decline in MY 2024/25 due to damage and losses from successive typhoons. FAS Manila forecasts corn imports to reach 1.35 million MT for MY 2024/25 as fall armyworm continues to cause a decline in local production. Feed demand is forecasted to grow in MY 2024/25, driven by the broiler and layer industry and the rebounding swine industry. FAS Manila forecasts imports for wheat to increase to 7.15 million MT for MY 2024/25. The demand for wheat is largely driven by increased demand for milling wheat due to economic growth, increased population, a rebound in tourism, moderating inflation, and demand for feed wheat given favorable pricing vis-à-vis corn.
FAS Manila forecasts raw sugar production at 1.85 million metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2025, higher than the Sugar Regulatory Administration's (SRA) forecast of 1.78 million MT, due to an expansion in area planted and improvements in weather conditions from the previous El Niño, which is expected to provide better production in MY 2025. Post forecasts no additional exports on top of the 24,800 MT raw value shipped to the United States at the beginning of MY 2025, following the recent Sugar Order No.1 allocating all production to domestic consumption. As of this report SRA has not authorized a sugar import program for MY 2025.
Hot and dry conditions in the autumn and winter of 2024 led to a drop in the production of South African sugar cane. This is expected to translate into a slight decrease in sugar production and exports. Domestic consumption of sugar in MY 2024/25 is revised downwards on further increases in the notional price implemented in September 2024. On August 8, 2024, the South African Revenue Service adjusted the custom duty on sugar from R1,096.60/MT to R2,348.90/MT due to a continued drop in global sugar prices. Despite a drop in sugar production, Post expects that South Africa will fully utilize its allocated U.S. tariff rate quota in MY 2024/25.
Rice export prices further dropped 1-6 percent from the previous week in response to the removal of India's rice export ban, despite the strengthening of the Thai baht.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
No comments:
Post a Comment