Feed demand in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is expected to recover slightly, with a projected total volume of 286.5 million metric tons (MMT). Corn is expected to dominate feed composition due to low prices, replacing wheat and old stock rice. Corn production is forecast at 293 MMT in MY2024/25, slightly down from previous estimates due to floods but still higher than previous marketing years. Corn imports in MY2024/25 are forecast to drop to 20 MMT. Sorghum and barley imports will remain high in MY2024/25 but slightly lower than record levels, influenced by government pressure to reduce grain imports. Wheat production is expected to rise in MY2024/25, but consumption will decrease due to improved corn quality, limiting wheat substitution in feed. Rice production in MY2024/25 is estimated to decline slightly due to flooding, while rice consumption will decrease, driven by lower feed and food demand.
China's MY 2024/25 sugar production is forecast at 11 MMT, up 600,000 MT as acreage for both cane and beet are up and competition crops are less profitable. China's MY 2024/25 sugar consumption is forecast at 15.6 MMT, adjusted down 100,000 MT as China's economy continues to show signs of slow recovery. As China's imports of raw sugar and processed sugar (syrup and pre-mixed powder) are forecast to remain relatively high, the MY 2024/25 stocks are poised to increase.
Against the backdrop of a series of global shocks, regional conflict, and the war in Ukraine, the Egyptian economy slowed down in 2024 and is projected to recover gradually in the coming years. Small local grocers are the dominant channel in the Egyptian retail market, comprising of more than $13 billion in retail sales and approximately 60 percent market share. However, the food retail industry in Egypt is becoming increasingly competitive, with both local and international players competing for market share through pricing and product innovation.
In 2023, the Guatemalan market showed significant potential for growth, with supermarkets, hypermarkets, and independent food stores expanding their locations. Despite the challenges posed by rising costs, the value of U.S. consumer-oriented product imports into Guatemala reached a record $778.6 million. This report is a valuable resource for U.S. exporters, offering crucial insights on entering the promising Guatemala market, identifying the most lucrative product prospects, analyzing competition, and providing a profile of businesses in the retail food sector.
A heavy 2024 southwest monsoon season has caused flooding and water logging in several central India states, leading to crop damage and expected lower agricultural production. India's Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated that monsoon withdrawal was delayed by a week to September 23 and is likely to further exacerbate crop damage during harvest. Through September 24, cumulative rainfall is five percent above the fifty-year average/long-period average (LPA), with excess rains reported in both central and southern India (15 percent above LPA). Consequently, overall reservoir storage levels are much improved and bode well for Rabi (winter-sown) crops.
Post forecasts Mexico's sugar production at 5.4 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October 1 – September 30). This forecast represents an 8 percent increase from MY 2023/24 on favorable weather conditions and seasonal rains in all sugar-producing regions that have contributed to alleviating, to some extent, drought conditions experienced in the last MYs. The National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugar Cane (CONADESUCA) has not yet published an official MY 2024/25 forecast.
U.S. food and agricultural products have continued to prove popular in the New Zealand market. In 2023, the value of these products was a record US$ 9.3 million, US$ 3.4 million of which were consumer-oriented products. The New Zealand grocery and food retail sector continues to expand. New Zealand imports from the United States include packaged food, pet food, grapes, pork, cheese, animal feed, beer, and wine. FAS/Wellington expects demand to remain strong for consumer food products manufactured in-country and imported.
Imports of wheat, rice, and corn in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 are estimated to increase as the economy stabilizes, inflation decreases, and the government implements a temporary zero-duty import policy for the afore-mentioned commodities until December 31. Corn production is expected to increase by six percent in MY 2024/25 to 11.68 MMT compared to FAS-Lagos' April 2024 estimate, due to the expected increase in area harvested as high prices encourage more planting. The depreciation of the naira relative to the CFA franc is expected to continue to result in increased informal exports of corn and rice to neighboring countries, as grain traders take advantage of relatively stronger neighboring currencies.
This report provides an overview of Thailand's food retail sector along with the latest market updates. Thailand's retail industry continued to evolve and improve, driven by increasing consumer demand for convenience. Food and beverage sales are a key driver of the country's retail industry. Urbanization, rising disposable incomes, changing consumer preferences, an increasing focus on health and sustainability are key drivers in Thailand's food retail sector.
Sunflowerseed production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to drop to its lowest level in almost a decade due to extremely dry weather conditions in the northeast part of the country, where more than half of the production is concentrated. To offset this expected decline, imports of sunflower seed, oil, and meal are all forecast higher. From January-April 2025, a lower-duty quota for sunflowerseed and crude sunflowerseed oil will come into effect to facilitate the country's import requirements needed to avoid a potential shortfall in cooking oil and meal.
Turkiye's beet sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to decline year-over-year due to dry and hotter-than-normal weather conditions in the country's beet growing areas. Our production forecast matches the government-dictated production quota of 3.1 million metric tons (MMT), which was announced back in May 2024. The quota predominantly favors beet sugar production versus corn starch-based sugar. Besides weather-related factors and incremental changes to the size of the quota, there is little change year-to-year in Turkiye's sugar complex because the sector is highly regulated by the government.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
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