Post projects 2025 Argentine chicken meat production to rise to 2.55 million metric tons (MMT), while exports are projected at 180,000 metric tons as the Chinese market remains closed to Argentine exports. The Argentine poultry industry has reopened almost all markets lost as a result of the Avian Influenza outbreaks in February 2023 other than China but the industry remains optimistic and believes the market will be reopened soon. As economic difficulties continue to affect Argentine consumers, the lower relative price of chicken to beef means per capita consumption of chicken is approaching parity with beef, the traditional protein preferred by Argentines. While total consumption continues to rise, per capita consumption is expected to plateau.
Brazil is the second-largest chicken meat producer in the world after the United States and the largest chicken meat exporter in the world. Post forecasts chicken meat production will increase one percent in 2025 due to high external demand, socio-economic performance, and improved costs of production. Brazil continues to maintain its status as free from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial plants. This report considers current status quo for its forecasts. Post forecasts consumption at 10.1 MMT both in 2024 and 2025. Chicken meat exports are forecast to increase three percent in 2025, as Brazil opens new markets and consolidates and diversifies exports to existing markets. Brazil is diligently negotiating regionalization clauses to its current health certificates, with the objective of protecting its exports in case of HPAI or additional Newcastle Disease outbreaks.
FAS estimates Venezuela corn production at 1.36 million metric tons for the new market year (MY) 2024/2025 on a planted area of 350,000 hectares. Significant economic uncertainty persists following the July 28, 2024, presidential election, and higher inflation and a scarcity of U.S. dollars will likely inhibit increased corn acreage and limit yields. The United States has resumed its position as the largest rice and corn supplier to Venezuela for MY 2023/2024 and is the fourth largest wheat exporter. Venezuela rice production for MY 2024/2025 is estimated to increase to 373,000 metric tons milled rice equivalent on a 16 percent increase year-on-year in planted area. Wheat consumption in MY 2024/2025 is expected to remain unchanged as low-priced imported pasta products continue to flood the market.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
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