The Morning: Inside the minds of swing voters

Plus, Eric Adams's indictment, a cease-fire proposal and Moo Deng the hippo.

View in browser|nytimes.com September 26, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering a poll of undecided voters — as well as Eric Adams's indictment, a cease-fire proposal and Moo Deng the hippo. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Kenny Halston and Doug Mills/The New York Times No. 1 concerns How will undecided Americans choose between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump — or decide to vote for neither — in the final six weeks of the campaign? To better understand these voters' thinking, my colleagues and I added an open-ended question to the most recent Times/Siena College poll in which we asked people to name their biggest concern about each candidate. In today's newsletter, I'll explain the results. Trump's temperament We define swing voters as the roughly 18 percent of likely voters who say they haven't yet made a firm decision. Some describe themselves as undecided, while others say they're leaning toward one candidate but open to changing their mind. (All the numbers in today's newsletter come from a poll of three swing states — Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. But I've analyzed a similar question in a nationwide poll conducted by YouGov and The Economist, and the themes were similar.) Swing voters' biggest concern about Trump, by far, is his temperament. "He's unwilling to admit that he's been wrong about anything," said a white woman under age 30 who has a bachelor's degree. A middle-aged Hispanic woman without a degree said, "My biggest concern is about the way he handles himself." Many of the responses were withering. People called him — and I'm using their exact words here — emotional, impulsive, reckless, unstable, unhinged, childish, arrogant, disrespectful, narcissistic, selfish, rude, chaotic and erratic. Overall, 35 percent of swing voters said that his personality was their biggest concern about him: Note: People who did not answer or gave another response are not shown. Source: Times/Siena College poll | By The New York Times As you can see in the chart, we treated honesty as a separate category, and it was the second most common concern about Trump. Some people cited his lies. Others said he was racist or sexist or mostly looked out for the wealthy. Still others doubted his ability to the job, saying he was too old. "He's not as dynamic," said a white man over 65 from Arizona. "His ideas and his behavior is strange." Unhappiness with Trump's personal behavior was far more common than concerns about his proposed policies. To put it another way, a meaningful slice of Americans dislike Trump as a person while liking some of his record, such as the economy's performance before Covid and his toughness on immigration and trade. This pattern helps explain why many Republicans believe Trump would have a comfortable lead in the polls if only he would act more normally. Harris's policies The concerns about Harris are different. Her personality was also the most cited area of concern, but by a much smaller share of voters than mentioned Trump's personality. And the worries about her were often vaguer. "I don't think she's got it all together," said an older white man in Arizona. Some voters said they didn't think she seemed serious or intelligent. Others explicitly questioned whether a woman could succeed as president or alluded to stereotypes tied to gender, such as whether she could "hold up under the strain." It's hard to know exactly how Harris can address these concerns, especially since the poll was conducted after her forceful debate this month. But many other voters have more concrete questions about Harris's candidacy. The share who cited specific policy areas was much larger than the share who raised such questions about Trump. Note: People who did not answer or gave another response are not shown. Source: Times/Siena College poll | By The New York Times Some called her too liberal. (Although some swing voters worry that Trump is an authoritarian, few describe his policy views as too conservative.) Two of the biggest areas of concern are the high inflation and surging immigration while she has been vice president. "Economic collapse and open borders," said a Black woman in Georgia between 45 and 64 with a bachelor's degree. A small percentage of other voters mentioned an issue other than the economy or immigration, including Harris's support for Israel and her liberal stance on gender issues. Then there are those voters who say they simply don't know enough about Harris. "She doesn't know how she plans to run the country because she doesn't give straight answers," said a white woman between 45 and 64. "She has been directly asked questions and deflected," said a Hispanic woman in the same age group. "She's politically vague," said an Asian man under 30. The Harris campaign has seen similar polling results, which helps explain the economic speech that Harris gave in Pittsburgh yesterday. It contained clearer themes than many of her previous remarks on the economy. It was also decidedly moderate, as my colleague Jim Tankersley explained. "Look, I am a capitalist," Harris said. Until recently, Harris has often chosen to say less rather than more about her agenda. Swing voters remain eager to hear more. William Davis and Ruth Igielnik contributed to today's newsletter. More on the election In Pittsburgh, Harris promised to invest in innovative industries like A.I. and accused Trump of favoring the wealthy. "For Donald Trump, our economy works best if it works for those who own the big skyscrapers," she said. In an MSNBC interview, Harris criticized Trump's economic record and called his proposed tariffs unserious. Read more takeaways. On "The View," Biden called Trump a loser and said he was at peace with ending his re-election bid. Trump's advisers are considering whether to change his travel — including flying less on his own plane — after threats to his life. A Senate committee investigating security lapses at the July rally where a gunman shot Trump found communications breakdowns that it blamed on unclear leadership at the Secret Service. THE LATEST NEWS Adams Indictment Eric Adams Karsten Moran for The New York Times Eric Adams, the mayor of New York City, was indicted after a federal corruption investigation. Prosecutors are expected to detail the charges today. The F.B.I.'s investigation focused on whether Adams had traded favors for illegal campaign donations from the Turkish government. In addition to the Adams case, at least three more federal investigations hang over City Hall. Here's a guide. What happens next? New York voters cannot recall the mayor and he is not required to resign, but Gov. Kathy Hochul has the power to remove him. Before the indictment, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had called for Adams to resign, becoming the most prominent Democrat to do so. See a list. More on Politics Congress passed a bill to fund the federal government into December. Biden is expected to sign it, avoiding a shutdown. Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for North Carolina governor, reportedly wrote in 2009 that the police "should have shot Al Sharpton," the civil rights activist. Several members of Robinson's staff plan to resign next week after previous reports of disturbing comments. The House condemned Biden, Harris and other administration officials over the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. All Republicans and 10 Democrats voted for the resolution. Investors from Saudi Arabia and other countries have paid Jared Kushner's private equity firm at least $112 million since 2021. Representative Clay Higgins, a Louisiana Republican, made racist claims about Haitians in a since-deleted social media post. "Eating pets, vudu, nastiest country in the western hemisphere, cults, slapstick gangsters," he wrote. Middle East The chief of Israel's military told soldiers at the northern border that it was drawing up plans for a possible ground invasion of Lebanon. Benjamin Netanyahu ordered soldiers to keep fighting. The U.S. is working to broker a short-term cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah. War in Ukraine Ukrainian soldiers. Nicole Tung for The New York Times Russian forces are fighting for a string of strongholds in eastern Ukraine. Taking any one could reshape the war there. Someone Zoom called a U.S. senator impersonating a top Ukrainian official, seemingly using deepfake technology. Hurricane Helene Hurricane Helene is expected to hit Florida's Gulf Coast tonight. The storm could intensify to Category 4 or worse. Helene's winds could stretch across Florida and Georgia, possibly to Atlanta. At least 17 counties along the Florida coast ordered evacuations. Other Big Stories A man with a gun hijacked a bus in Los Angeles, leading the police on a chase through downtown. One person onboard was killed. An American woman in Switzerland became the first to die using a so-called suicide capsule — an airtight pod that fills with nitrogen gas. Authorities have arrested several people who might have helped her. An Alaskan island has enlisted residents and the federal government to catch a rat, fearing an infestation that could wreck its delicate ecosystem. Opinions Trump The New York Times "You can't trust him." "He is wholly unfit to be in office." "He is a coward." Read the case against Trump, as made by former allies, colleagues and friends. Climate change threatens wheat and rice. Fonio, an African staple that could help the world cope, deserves to be the next quinoa, Marcus Samuelsson writes. Rutgers University's president resigned because he values critical thinking and today's campus politics does not, Pamela Paul writes. Here's a column by Nicholas Kristof on an orphan in Sudan. Readers of The Morning: Don't miss out on a full year of savings. From in-depth coverage of Decision 2024 to unlimited news and analysis, Games, Cooking, The Athletic and more, subscribe now for only $1 a week for your first year. MORNING READS An artist's rendering of the black hole. E. Wernquist/D. Nelson (IllustrisTNG Collaboration)/M. Oei Space: A black hole is spitting the biggest lightning bolt ever seen — a cosmic jet of energy so long that the Milky Way is a dot in comparison. Low-budget ads: Your local restaurant may be doing sketch comedy on TikTok. New York: Only seven of the city's 100 poorest schools have a student publication. A local nonprofit wants to change that. Lives Lived: Cat Glover danced onstage with Prince during his "Sign o' the Times" tour and her choreography added a frenetic flair to his late 1980s ensembles. She died at 62. SPORTS W.N.B.A. playoffs: The Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx secured semifinal spots. The Sun ended Caitlin Clark's rookie campaign, while Napheesa Collier scored 42 points in what may have been Diana Taurasi's final game. M.L.B.: Shohei Ohtani's 50th home run ball is up for auction. Bids open at $500,000. College football: The quarterback Matthew Sluka, who led U.N.L.V. to a 3-0 start, said he would step away over unfulfilled name, image and likeness payments. It's a first for the sport. ARTS AND IDEAS Moo Deng Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters Defiant, sassy, slippery, chubby: Meet Moo Deng, the internet's favorite pygmy hippopotamus. Since a zoo in Thailand introduced her this summer, she has popped up in memes posted by sports teams, businesses and the Encyclopaedia Britannica. Her popularity has raised awareness around about her endangered species; there are fewer than 3,000 pygmy hippos in the wild. More on culture In the latest Legend of Zelda game, Echoes of Wisdom, the princess herself becomes a hero. Read our review. On "The Daily Show," Desi Lydic joked about Trump demanding to see Harris's "burger certificate" for proof she worked at McDonalds. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Bryan Gardner for The New York Times Braise chicken in a skillet, and add greens and olives. Take a colorful trip this fall. Read a beginner's guide to the gym weight room. Sharpen your knives. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangrams were admitting, intimidating and mandating. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. 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