September 23, 2024

	By David Leonhardt

Good morning. We're covering the threats faced by the U.S. — plus, Israeli strikes in Lebanon, the 2024 election and "The West Wing" at 25.

A large ship with the words "China Coast Guard" on the side, and a smaller rubber boat with five people riding in it with the words "Philippine Coast Guard" on the side.

In the South China Sea. Aaron Favila/Associated Press

'The threats we face'

The first sentence of the report — released over the summer by a bipartisan, congressionally appointed commission — was blunt: "The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war."

The nation, the report continued, "is not prepared today."

The threats begin with China, which has grown more belligerent in Asia. In Europe, Russia started the first major war in almost 80 years. In the Middle East, Iran finances a network of extremist groups. Increasingly, these countries work together, too, sometimes with North Korea. The report described them as "an axis of growing malign partnerships."

I want to devote today's newsletter to the findings from the group (officially known as the Commission on the National Defense Strategy) because I found them jarring — and because I suspect many readers haven't yet heard them. "In a healthy political climate," Walter Russell Mead, a foreign affairs expert at the Hudson Institute, wrote in The Wall Street Journal, the report would be "the central topic in national conversation."

An anti-democracy alliance

This anti-American alliance presents a threat because its members are not satisfied with the status quo. That's why Russia invaded Ukraine and Iran's proxies have been so aggressive in Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. It's why China has rammed Philippine boats in the South China Sea and President Xi Jinping has directed China's military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. China, Russia and Iran all want more control over their regions than they now have.

One of the bipartisan group's central arguments is that American weakness has contributed to the new instability. "This is not a report encouraging the U.S. to go to war," Jane Harman, the former Democratic congresswoman from California and the commission's chair, told me. "It's a report making sure the U.S. can deter war."

If the U.S. doesn't do more to deter aggression, living standards in this country could suffer, Harman and her colleagues argued. Iran-backed attacks in the Red Sea have already raised shipping costs, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made energy more expensive. A war in Taiwan could cut off access to the semiconductors that power modern life.

Harman told me that she believed the warning signs today were similar to those in the run-up to both Pearl Harbor and 9/11 — serious and underestimated.

American weaknesses

The report cited several major U.S. weaknesses, including:

A failure to remain ahead of China in some aspects of military power. "China is outpacing the United States and has largely negated the U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investment," the report concluded.

One reason is the decline in the share of U.S. resources devoted to the military. This Times chart, which may surprise some readers, tells the story:

Three lines track federal spending on health care, social security and defense. Total budget allocated to defense has fallen since 1950, while money spent on health care and income security has risen.

Source: Congressional Budget Office | By The New York Times

The report recommended increasing military spending, partly by making changes to Medicare and Social Security (which is sure to upset many liberals) and partly by increasing taxes, including on corporations (which is sure to upset many conservatives). The report also called for more spending on diplomacy and praised the Biden administration for strengthening alliances in Europe and Asia.

A Pentagon bureaucracy that's too deferential to military suppliers. The report criticized consolidation among defense contractors, which has raised costs and hampered innovation. The future increasingly lies with drones and A.I., not the decades-old equipment that the Pentagon now uses.

A U.S. manufacturing sector that isn't strong enough to produce what the military needs. A lack of production capacity has already hurt the country's efforts to aid Ukraine, as The Times has documented. "Putin's invasion has demonstrated how weak our industrial base is," David Grannis, the commission's executive director, said. If the Pentagon and the innovative U.S. technology sector collaborated more, they could address this problem, Grannis added.

A polarized political atmosphere that undermines national unity. A lack of patriotism is one reason that the military has failed to meet its recent recruitment goals. Perhaps more worrisome, many Americans are angry at one another rather than paying attention to external threats.

The bottom line

A single commission won't have all the answers to the hard strategic issues facing the country. How much money should the U.S. spend on the military, given other priorities and the large federal debt? How much waste can be cut from the Pentagon budget? Which foreign conflicts are vital to the national interest — and which are a distraction?

All these questions are vexing. But Americans do face a more dangerous world than many realize. The unexpected global turmoil of the past decade makes that clear.

For more: I recommend this Times interactive, which has videos, photos and maps that document the Chinese coast guard's aggression toward Philippine ships.

THE LATEST NEWS

Middle East

The skies over a city filled with smoke and sparks.

In Tyre, southern Lebanon. Aziz Taher/Reuters

Israeli warplanes attacked hundreds of targets in Lebanon this morning as part of an aerial offensive.
The Israeli military warned Lebanese civilians to evacuate villages where Hezbollah — the Iran-backed group that controls parts of Lebanon — was storing weapons.
A Hezbollah official said that the group had entered a new stage of open warfare against Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would take "whatever action is necessary" to diminish the threat from Hezbollah.
The escalating violence across the Israel-Lebanon border is causing international concern. "We're going to do everything we can to keep a wider war from breaking out," President Biden said.

2024 Election

Donald Trump has gained a five-point lead over Kamala Harris in Arizona and is ahead in tight races in Georgia and North Carolina, according to polls from The Times and Siena College.
It's a good set of numbers for Trump, but not necessarily an exceptional one: Harris's easiest path to victory lies in the Northern battleground states, Nate Cohn writes.
A majority of likely voters in Arizona plan to support an amendment to the state's Constitution that codifies the right to abortion, Times and Siena College polling found.

MORNING READS

On a chilly but clear late summer night, thousands of people watch a concert on a large stage. A few flags are held aloft in the crowd.

At the Fête de l'Humanité south of Paris. Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times

Fête de l'Humanité: This French fair is a blend of Burning Man and a political convention, attracting the masses with bands, lectures and food.

Climate: Our appetite for meat is hurting the planet. Enter lab-grown flesh.

Ask Vanessa: "Is it time to rename the pussy-bow blouse?"

Metropolitan Diary: His hair was rather wild.

Lives Lived: Mercury Morris gave the rushing attack of the Miami Dolphins speed and dexterity in the early 1970s, helping to power the team to two Super Bowls and the N.F.L.'s only perfect season. He died at 77.

SPORTS

Malik Nabers N.F.L. on X

N.F.L.: The New York Giants rookie Malik Nabers led his team to a 21-15 win over the Cleveland Browns. Elsewhere, the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Atlanta Falcons thanks to a generous no-call.

M.L.B.: The Chicago White Sox lost their 120th game of the season, tying the record for the worst season in modern baseball history.

W.N.B.A.: It was Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas, not Caitlin Clark, who snatched the spotlight in the first round of the playoffs with a triple-double in a win over Clark's Indiana Fever.

ARTS AND IDEAS

"The West Wing" debuted in September 1999. Kevin Foley/NBCU Photo Bank

Aaron Sorkin's "The West Wing" turned 25 yesterday. The Times's chief TV critic, James Poniewozik, despite being an early skeptic, watched every episode of the show's seven seasons. The show was funny, James writes in a Critic's Notebook, and knew how to pluck at viewers' heartstrings. But its political wish-fulfillment has aged poorly.

"Just as '24' oversimplified the war on terror," James writes, "'The West Wing' propagated a Vaseline-lensed image of politics."

More on culture

A soccer shirt warehouse.

Vintage soccer jerseys have become a streetwear staple — and a target for major investors. Their real appeal is in the memories they conjure.
Activists are hopeful that the arrest of Sean Combs, also known as Diddy, will lead to changes in the music industry, which has largely avoided the #MeToo accountability that swept Hollywood and politics.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Two white bowls of soup on a gray surface, with metal spoons. The soup is a red broth studded with greens, white beans and bits of ground turkey.

Con Poulos for The New York Times

Make this adaptable white bean soup either brothy or stewlike.

Avoid the "cynicism trap."

Choose a new mattress. Here's how.

Exercise with a jump rope.

Take our news quiz.

GAMES

Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangrams were dialyze and dialyzed.

And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson

News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance.

You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account.

To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request.

Subscribe to The Times Get The New York Times app

Connect with us on: