FAS/Tokyo forecasts cattle inventory expands in 2025 on greater cow beginning stocks and a moderate pace of slaughtering from 2024. Despite a drop in total number of cattle slaughtered, beef production will remain flat in 2025 from 2024 as slaughtering expands of the larger carcass black hair wagyu cattle. Growth in sow numbers will raise the total swine population by the end of 2025 and pork production expands on greater slaughter numbers and heavier finishing weights.
The Kenyan dairy and beef sectors are important drivers of the country's economic growth, yet both sectors are unable to meet domestic demand. The challenges facing Kenya's dairy and beef sectors present opportunities for U.S. technical capacity building in research, knowledge, and technology transfer. Opportunities include enhanced trade in improved genetics, capacity building in the use of Artificial Insemination, access to high-quality feed through trade in feed and feed ingredients, and improved disease surveillance and treatment.
Chicken production in South Korea will continue its gradual growth trend through 2024 and into 2025, as poultry inventories recover from productivity challenges in 2023 and fend off a 2024 outbreak of HPAI. Chicken consumption in the market is stable and strong, with demographic factors and food price inflation shifting consumption patterns away from eating out and toward purchasing convenience foods to eat at home. Imports are expected to remain around 200,000 MT per year in 2025 and 2024, dipping over 25 percent from a record high in 2023 following the expiration of emergency tariff rate quotas (TRQs). Exports of processed poultry will continue to rise as the government secures access to additional markets for signature K-food dishes like chicken ginseng soup (samgyetang).
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