The Morning: A swing in momentum

Plus, markets, Israel's offensive and portable fans.

View in browser|nytimes.com August 9, 2024 Good morning. We're covering the state of the 2024 race — as well as markets, Israel's offensive and portable fans. Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz in Philadelphia. Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times Race reset By Lisa Lerer I'm a national political correspondent. Everything seems different now. A campaign that once felt like a death march has become a dance party for Democrats. Tens of thousands flock to rallies in battleground states and Zoom confabs online — White dudes! Cat ladies! Even venture capitalists for Harris! The campaign coffers are overflowing. And President Biden's dark warnings about a "battle for the soul of America" have been replaced with a brat-infused pursuit of "the joy." Political campaigns, of course, are the art of telling a story that enough American voters will embrace. Donald Trump has his story about a nation in decline, and so far he's sticking with it. At her rallies and online, Kamala Harris has crafted a tale of exuberant political opportunity. But the more significant electoral question is whether the change at the top of the Democratic ticket has remade the fundamental dynamics of the contest. Nineteen days into the new Harris operation, a growing amount of data suggests that both campaigns face a changed political environment. While the contest remains tight, the momentum seems to have swung in Democrats' favor. At least for now. In today's newsletter, I'll examine three ways that Democrats have gained a sudden — and surprising — advantage. The base is back In Philadelphia.  Erin Schaff/The New York Times I've covered presidential campaigns since 2008, and it's been a long time since I've seen the kind of energy I observed at Harris's kickoff rally in Atlanta last week. Beyoncé's music was booming. The crowd of nearly 10,000 supporters was dancing and cheering. And Harris was loving every minute of it. Rallies and media "vibes" don't determine election outcomes, but they do signal enthusiasm. For months, Biden struggled to maintain support among his own party. Large numbers of Democrats told pollsters they'd prefer another candidate. When they got their wish, they went all in. A New York Times/Siena College poll taken in the days after Biden exited the race showed Harris with 93 percent support from Democrats. Her numbers are also stronger among key segments of the party's coalition, including young and Black voters. Exciting a party's base, by itself, is not enough to win the presidency. But no candidate can win without those voters. Even if this level of enthusiasm can't be sustained, record-breaking fund-raising hauls have erased Republicans' cash advantage. Now, Democrats can spend more on advertising and organizing to shore up their already-sizable operation in key swing states. A more robust field staff could help Democrats turn support into actual votes. Trump's operation, by contrast, has outsourced most of its turnout operation to loosely coordinated conservative groups — relying on a largely untested strategy made possible by new loopholes in campaign finance rules. The map has shifted In the final weeks of Biden's campaign, his path to victory had narrowed to the "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Harris has re-expanded the map for Democrats. She appears to be competitive across all seven presidential battlegrounds. The New York Times's tracker for polling averages shows her locked in a neck-and-neck race in the three blue wall states. Yesterday, The Cook Political Report shifted three Sun Belt swing states — Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — from leaning Republican to being "tossups." It's also possible the third-party threat — long a source of anxiety among Democratic operatives — might not loom as large for Harris as it did for Biden. In a head-to-head Wisconsin matchup, for instance, Harris and Trump are nearly tied, according to a new statewide poll by Marquette Law School. But in a multicandidate contest, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears to siphon more from Trump's pool of voters than from the Democratic coalition. Trump is playing defense Donald Trump Doug Mills/The New York Times For months, the Trump campaign seemed untouchable. Through criminal indictments, courtroom appearances and criminal convictions, Trump's hold on the race seemed only to grow. His attack was clear and effective: The nation was worse off under Biden. Now, Trump faces a very different opponent who is younger and more energetic and a Black woman. And his team has struggled to update its message. Yesterday, in his first press conference since Harris won the nomination, Trump recycled a series of attacks, casting Harris as part of the "radical left," "incompetent" and weak on inflation. He repeatedly mispronounced her name, resurrecting the same kind of racially charged attacks that failed to defeat President Barack Obama. Perhaps the old tropes can work against Harris. But so far they have done little to undercut her fresh momentum. Yet he also appeared fixated on Biden's sudden departure from the race, even as his insisted little had changed. "I haven't recalibrated strategy at all," he told the reporters gathered at Mar-a-Lago yesterday. "It's the same policies: open borders, weak on crime." But whether Trump believes it or not, the race has changed. His ability to adjust may determine whether the Harris honeymoon is a summer vacation — or a journey to the White House. More on Trump's press conference Trump and Harris are set to debate on Sept. 10 on ABC News. Trump also proposed two other debates, on NBC and Fox. He said Democrats, including Harris, Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, had "taken away" the nomination from Biden. Trump claimed to have spoken to a bigger audience on Jan. 6, 2021, than Martin Luther King Jr. did for his famous "I Have a Dream" speech. Read a fact-check of his other claims. Asked about his recent claim that Harris, who is multiracial, "became" Black, Trump said, "Whether it's Indian or Black, I think it's very disrespectful." Trump told an untrue story about riding in a helicopter with Willie Brown, a former boyfriend of Harris, apparently confusing him with former Gov. Jerry Brown. Trump also incorrectly claimed the helicopter had an emergency landing. More on the Democrats Harris isn't giving interviews. She does not support blocking weapons shipments to Israel, an adviser said. Pro-Palestinian activists in Michigan had asked her to meet with them to discuss an embargo. As running mates, Tim Walz and JD Vance are presenting different versions of small-town America, based on their childhoods. THE LATEST NEWS U.S. Economy A wild week in markets made investors question the strength of the economy. Read what comes next and what to do with your portfolio. Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level in more than a year — good news for prospective home buyers and sellers. New data shows weekly jobless claims falling more than expected, a positive development as the Federal Reserve considers lowering interest rates. Trump, at his press conference, said presidents should have a say in setting interest rates, another sign that he might try to end the Fed's history of political independence. Middle East Fleeing the Khan Younis area of Gaza. Abdel Kareem Hana/Associated Press Israel said it had launched another offensive in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis. The attack involved fighter jets and helicopter gunships. In a joint statement, Biden and the leaders of Egypt and Qatar urged Israel and Hamas to resume negotiations over a cease-fire deal. The U.S. charged two Iranians with smuggling missile parts for the Houthi militia in Yemen. More International News The Austrian authorities accused two teenagers of conspiring to attack a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna. A suspect confessed to a plot using explosives and other weapons to kill as many attendees as possible, security officials said. In Liverpool, England, residents delivered a resounding message to far-right rioters: Not here. China is stressing science education in schools. That has given the country advantages — and is crucial to its lead in electric vehicles. Other Big Stories New footage from the Trump assassination attempt shows a frantic police effort to reach the gunman. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that there will be more hurricanes than average this season. Three Columbia deans resigned after sending text messages that the university's president called antisemitic. A glacial lake overflowed and damaged homes in Alaska. It keeps doing that. Opinions In Paris. Giulia Frigieri for The New York Times A public school in Paris has found success teaching hip-hop dance. The U.S., which invented the art form, should offer similar school programs, Jeff Chang argues. We should advance pro-family policies like child tax credits even if they don't improve birthrates, David French writes. Here are columns by Paul Krugman on free school lunches, and Jamelle Bouie on calling Trump and Vance "weird." Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. To access all of it, become a subscriber with this introductory offer. MORNING READS Towers under the sea. D. Kelley/M. Elend, via UW, via URI-IAO, via NOAA, via The Lost City Science Team "Lost City": Did life on Earth once spring from these rocks underwater? Little houses: Artists are preserving urban architecture by recreating it in miniature — dumpsters, graffiti and all. Today's Great Read: A glamorous family's life seemed picture-perfect on Instagram. Behind the scenes, though, it was a financial disaster — one that led to tragedy. Fertility: A woman challenged a rule in China that barred unmarried women from freezing their eggs. She lost. Lives Lived: Duane Thomas was a powerful and elusive running back who led the Dallas Cowboys to their first Super Bowl victory. Before that, he engaged in a well-publicized contract dispute during which he called his coach "plastic." He died at 77. OLYMPICS Nikola Jokic and LeBron James. Aris Messinis/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Basketball: The U.S. men's team survived a scare from Nikola Jokic and Serbia in a semifinal. The Americans will meet France and Victor Wembanyama in the title game. Water polo: The U.S. women's team, seeking a fourth straight gold, lost to Australia in a shootout in the semifinals. Track: The American star Noah Lyles took bronze in the men's 200-meter final and revealed shortly after that he had tested positive for Covid two days earlier. Closing ceremony: The swimmer Katie Ledecky and the rower Nick Mead will be the U.S. flag bearers for Sunday's closing ceremony at the Stade de France. Today: Highlights include track and field, soccer — and the debut of breaking. ARTS AND IDEAS In New York City. Jonah Rosenberg for The New York Times With temperatures rising, small portable fans have become a go-to accessory at bars, restaurants and even the post office. "I definitely have it on me all the time, because even in the subway, just waiting for the train, it's very stuffy down there," Adrienne Black, a 32-year-old New York City resident, said. Read more about the trend. More on culture Kieran Culkin, Bob Odenkirk and Bill Burr are set to star in a Broadway revival of "Glengarry Glen Ross." Steve Martin declined Lorne Michaels's offer to play Walz on "Saturday Night Live," The Los Angeles Times reports. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Julia Gartland for The New York Times Marry tamarind with the calabash nutmeg and ginger in this cake. Exercise while on vacation. See the super shoes Olympic runners are wearing. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was fixable. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018