The Morning: The British election

Plus, President Biden, a stampede in India and competitive eating.

View in browser|nytimes.com July 3, 2024 Good morning. Today, Mark Landler has a preview of this week's British election. We're also covering President Biden, a stampede in India and competitive eating. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform U.K., looks out at a crowd during a rally.  Hollie Adams/Reuters Against the tide By Mark Landler London bureau chief Britain goes to the polls tomorrow after a campaign that featured the same ingredients as other elections across Europe and the Americas: frustrated voters eager to reject the status quo, a deeply discredited government and a dash of populism — in this case, represented by the insurgent candidacy of Nigel Farage. But Britain is likely to emerge from the election as an outlier. While the electorates in other countries are shifting to the right, British voters are expected to evict the Conservative-led government after 14 years, in favor of the center-left Labour Party. In today's newsletter, I'll explain why Britain is zigging while others are zagging. Tory tumult The Conservatives, or Tories, have presided over a tumultuous era that began with David Cameron in 2010. It included harsh budget cuts after the financial crisis of 2008, the Brexit vote of 2016, the Covid pandemic and a revolving door of prime ministers. For many, it has been a circus that now needs to leave town. Boris Johnson was drummed out of office after serial scandals. (Among other things, he held parties during a Covid lockdown he had imposed.) Liz Truss lasted less than 50 days after the financial markets turned savagely against her proposed tax cuts. The current prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has steadied the ship but failed to give restless voters much of an argument for keeping his party in power. Beyond the constant drama, Labour politicians claim the Conservatives have broken Britain. They say: Cuts have starved the country's revered National Health Service, leading to overcrowded emergency rooms and monthslong waits for elective surgery. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Benjamin Cremel/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Other experts note that Britain's departure from the European Union has slowed trade and handicapped economic growth. Though its rebound after the pandemic was comparable to that of its European neighbors, its economy has since stagnated, and its public debt has ballooned. (These charts, by my colleagues Josh Holder and Ademola Bello, show how Britain has changed since the Conservatives took power in 2010.) The Tories have even struggled with their own priorities: Immigration has soared since Brexit. That is partly because of refugees from Ukraine and Hong Kong. But the influx is also fueled by huge numbers of migrants from South Asia and Africa, many of whom come to study at universities or are recruited as nurses or doctors in the understaffed N.H.S. In addition to these documented arrivals, thousands of asylum seekers try to cross the English Channel in unseaworthy boats. Conservative leaders, who sold Brexit as a tool to reduce immigration, say they will cut back the number of arrivals. Sunak has vowed to "stop the boats." He spent months securing the passage in Parliament of a legally challenged policy that would put some asylum seekers on one-way flights to Rwanda. But many voters no longer think the Conservative Party has credibility on this issue. Labour's pitch Labour vows to curb immigration by better policing Britain's borders. (It would mothball Rwanda flights, which it calls costly and ineffective.) Aside from that, however, the party's priorities don't seem all that different from those of the government, which is no accident. Across a range of issues, Labour has been careful not to draw deep distinctions between itself and the Conservatives. It is not proposing big tax increases. It has vowed no major spending hikes until Britain cuts its runaway public deficit. It has scaled back its ambitious program to curb climate change. It would maintain Britain's military support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party.  Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters Labour rejects the Tories less for the substance of their policies than for their hapless governance. It hopes to win over the many voters who are fed up with Conservative rule without frightening the ones who distrusted the tax-and-spend left — and especially its former leader, Jeremy Corbyn. Polls suggest the plan is working. Labour has led the Conservatives by double digits in polls for more than 18 months. The current Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has positioned himself as a plausible substitute for Sunak — a change agent but hardly a left-wing revolutionary. The real conceptual contest To the extent that there is an ideological struggle in this election, it is being waged on the right. Farage, a populist firebrand who campaigned on behalf of Brexit, is leading an anti-immigration party, Reform U.K., which is siphoning off votes from the Conservatives. Under the electoral rules that govern British politics, Reform is unlikely to win many seats in Parliament. But it could split the right-wing vote, deepening the scale of the Conservative defeat to Labour and perhaps even fracturing the Tories. Farage is an ally of Donald Trump, and his populist challenge echoes not only Trump's movement in the United States but also the gains made by far-right parties in France and Germany. In this respect, at least, Britain is not such an outlier. For more Starmer, a former human rights lawyer, is on the cusp of a potential landslide victory without the star quality that marked previous British leaders. In Starmer, King Charles could get a prime minister he likes. They are likely to find common ground on issues including climate change and the European Union. Soccer — which has long been a convenient P.R. vehicle for British politicians — has helped shape the election, Simon Hughes writes in The Athletic. Read more about the backgrounds and policies of Sunak and Starmer from the BBC. THE LATEST NEWS President Biden President Biden Eric Lee/The New York Times In recent months, some aides say, President Biden has had mental lapses — sometimes appearing confused, listless or losing the thread of conversations — particularly when tired. At a fund-raiser in Virginia, Biden acknowledged his poor debate performance, quipping that he almost "fell asleep on the stage." He blamed a busy international travel schedule. Most Democrats, including party leaders, still publicly support Biden. Nancy Pelosi defended him but said it was "a legitimate question to say, 'Is this an episode, or is this a condition?'" But other House Democrats expressed concern yesterday. Lloyd Doggett of Texas called for Biden to exit the race, while Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington said they thought Biden would lose to Trump. Tim Ryan, a former Ohio congressman who ran against Biden in 2020, said Vice President Kamala Harris should be the nominee instead. Representative James Clyburn, who is influential with Biden, said he would back Harris if Biden withdrew. Biden plans to meet with Democratic governors today and travel to battleground states this week. ABC News will interview him on Friday. Supreme Court The judge who oversaw Trump's Manhattan criminal conviction delayed the sentencing until September so that he can weigh whether the Supreme Court's immunity ruling threatens Trump's conviction. Trump had a very good year at the Supreme Court, and administrative agencies had a very bad one, Adam Liptak writes. See how the court ruled in major cases. For its next term, the court agreed to hear a challenge to a Texas law that seeks to limit minors' access to internet pornography. More on Politics Jack Smith, the special counsel investigating Trump, is said to be planning to continue his two criminal cases through the election if the former president wins. A New York court disbarred Rudy Giuliani, preventing him from practicing law in the state over his efforts to help Trump overturn the 2020 election. International Outside a hospital in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. Reuters In northern India, at least 121 people were killed in a stampede at a Hindu religious event. Israel issued an evacuation order for a large area of southeastern Gaza. Gazans are struggling to finding new places to shelter. Groups of men in Turkish cities have attacked Syrian refugees and damaged their property. Hurricane Beryl caused extreme damage on two islands in Grenada, the nation's prime minister said. See a tracker of where the storm is headed next. Business and Economy Elon Musk's public persona has become increasingly right wing. Analysts say this is alienating some potential Tesla customers. Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, said that inflation in the U.S. was coming down once more, and suggested that the central bank could lower interest rates if the trend continued. The Biden administration awarded millions of dollars in grants to help industries like biomanufacturing, clean energy and artificial intelligence. Other Big Stories Months after the end of a pandemic pause in student loans, about half of borrowers have not resumed their payments. The F.D.A. approved a new drug to treat Alzheimer's. Studies show it could modestly slow cognitive decline in early stages of the disease. Airports and roads could see record travelers this Fourth of July weekend. Avoid travel headaches with these tips, and check the forecast — it's going to be hot. Opinions Starmer's purge of the Labour Party's left wing proves he will maintain the British status quo, Oliver Eagleton writes. The data shows: Voters like Democrats. It's Biden who is the problem, Nate Silver writes. The Supreme Court's dismissal of Idaho's case against emergency abortions suggests that there's disagreement in the court's conservative ranks, Linda Greenhouse argues. A better Israeli prime minister than Benjamin Netanyahu would put Arab states in control of Gaza, Bret Stephens argues. Here is a column by Thomas Friedman on Biden's best next move. The Games Sale. Offer won't last. Games for relaxation. Games for concentration. We have them all. For a limited time, save 50% on your first year of a New York Times Games subscription and enjoy new puzzles every day. MORNING READS The New York Times Technology: The GPS system, an essential part of modern life, is under constant attack from hackers. America's network is especially old and vulnerable. Your next move: Is it better to rent or buy? Check with this calculator. Peak British summer: See inside Queen Camilla's second annual Queen's Reading Room Festival at Hampton Court Palace. Most clicked in June: Visit five cities with great beaches. Etsy vs. sex: The online marketplace has banned the sale of some products, including vintage Playboys and sex toys. Health: Do you need to apply sunscreen every day? Experts weigh in. Lives Lived: The painter and sculptor June Leaf developed a unique blend of expressionism, primitivism and a childlike sense of play. Her exploration of the female form paved the way for generations of feminist artists. She died at 94. SPORTS W.N.B.A.: The star rookies Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese were voted onto the All-Star Game roster. N.B.A.: Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers agreed to a three-year, $150 million extension. The biggest gamble in the franchise's history paid off, our columnist writes. ARTS AND IDEAS Eating practice in Tobyhanna, Pa. Jonno Rattman for The New York Times This year's Nathan's Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest, which takes place on July 4 on Coney Island, is unexpectedly open. Joey Chestnut, a 16-time champion, was barred after signing an endorsement deal with a vegan hot dog brand. Most elite eaters, however, are not signing endorsements deals: They're regular people with normal jobs. Read about how competitive eaters prepare the bodies and their minds. More on culture Two hundred years after it was written, Beethoven's "Ode to Joy" is still popular. A few years ago, Chet Hanks, the son of the actor Tom Hanks, made a seemingly ironic claim that a "white boy summer" was ahead. Hate groups have since latched onto the phrase. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Johnny Miller for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Samantha Seneviratne. Make this vibrant green pasta salad, which gets its color from a combination of spinach and basil. Stock your car with this gear for a roadside emergency. Block fireworks noise for kids and pets. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was flavorful. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018