July 13, 2024

Can Canada Trim Its Reliance on Foreign Labor?

To boil down the economy of labor for his university students, Mikal Skuterud often poses them a basic question: Would they prefer to graduate when jobs are scarce or when workers are scarce?

Tomatoes in a field with two workers in the background.

Agriculture in Canada has long relied on temporary foreign workers. Fabrizio Costantini for The New York Times

They mostly vote for a time of worker scarcity. Workers can benefit in a vast job pool through employers' competition to attract them — with better wages, for example — though this dynamic varies across industries, said Professor Skuterud, a labor economist at the University of Waterloo in Ontario who specializes in immigration.

"Labor economists tend to see labor shortages not as a first-order economic problem that governments need to solve," he said.

Instead, he said, they see them as "a blessing" for workers and job seekers.

In Canada, the government is on a mission to plug those labor gaps with foreigners, having set a goal of attracting 1.45 million immigrants between 2023 and 2025. Officials, in announcing the plan two years ago, framed it as imperative for Canada's future prosperity and its ability to fund public services.

Canada's immigration policy historically emphasized highly skilled workers. Its geographic isolation from countries facing emigration crises allows it to be selective about future newcomers.

The country has a ranking system for prospective migrants to register their work experience, language skills and other qualifications, which generate a score. Applicants who land above the threshold can receive an invitation to apply for permanent residency.

The government began to sidestep that system in February 2021, Professor Skuterud said, when it introduced programs that expanded the invitation roster to lower-skilled applicants. Last spring, Marc Miller, the immigration minister, unveiled a new immigration stream that would expedite general categories of applicants in fields such as health care, transportation, trades and agriculture.

"Everywhere I go, I've heard loud and clear from employers across the country who are experiencing chronic labor shortages," Mr. Miller said in a statement announcing the program.

Compared with the points system, the process of deciding which industries need help and should be given priority is more opaque and can be politicized or influenced by business lobbying, Professor Skuterud told me.

"There's absolutely no ambiguity that the push for this kind of lower-skilled immigration is coming from the business sector," he said.

Recent figures from Statistics Canada show that the nation's population grew by almost 1.3 million people last year, representing a 3.2 percent growth rate. That's the highest since 1957. About 471,000 people became permanent residents, meeting the government's target for 2023. The country hit a population milestone of 40 million people that same year. (Canada's current population is 41.4 million.)

The immigration department forecasts that 485,000 newcomers will arrive this year and that 500,000 will come in 2025.

The aggressive pursuit of newcomers comes as Canadians are preoccupied with the high cost of living, borne out in both homes and food prices. Banks say that Canada's economy is stagnating. Critics of the government's immigration plan argue that the influx of newcomers will strain these pressure points.

Public opinion polls suggest that the longstanding support of Canadians for immigration has been weakened by these concerns, according to a report by the Environics Institute for Survey Research, a nonprofit polling firm.

Marc Miller, in a suit and tie, and gesturing with his left hand as he speaks. Two Canadian flags are behind him.

Marc Miller, the immigration minister, says that businesses are facing labor shortages. Blair Gable/Reuters

Political backlash led the government to add restrictions for temporary residents, starting with changes that would place work-hour limits on international students and impose a higher savings threshold on applicants who wish to study in Canada.

[Read: Canada's Foreign Student Surge Prompts Changes, and Anxiety]

Mr. Miller, the immigration minister, also announced in March that the government would, for the first time, place a cap on temporary resident arrivals, which include foreign workers, students and asylum seekers. Further details will be released in the fall. But, as a starting point, Canada will seek to decrease the share of temporary residents to 5 percent of the population.

This group currently represents about 7 percent of Canada's population, according to estimates by Oxford Economics, a global economics consulting company with offices in Toronto. To reach its goal, the government would need to ensure that a net 500,000 temporary residents leave Canada by 2027, its analysts calculate.

The overall benefits of immigration to the Canadian economy will be seen in the long term despite the immediate pressures on housing and public infrastructure, said Tony Stillo, a director at Oxford Economics who works on Canadian economic forecasting.

"There is an ultimate lift to the economy," he said. "It just takes time."

Trans Canada

A room with several people seated and a person at the front standing near an easel.

A meeting of the Vancouver Area Network of Drug Users held to discuss British Columbia's retreat from decriminalization. Alana Paterson for The New York Times

British Columbia retreated from a bold experiment to decriminalize drug possession amid rampant drug-related deaths. I traveled to Vancouver and Victoria to report on how decriminalization, a policy introduced as a way of alleviating the opioid crisis, has instead been blamed for deepening it.
The daughter of Alice Munro, the revered Canadian author and Nobel laureate, revealed a dark family secret weeks after her mother's death. It shocked admirers and raised questions about how the secret had eluded Canada's literary and media circles.
Rory Linkletter, a Canadian marathoner, is one of the athletes training to compete in extreme heat at this summer's Paris Olympics.
An international team of scientists extracted DNA from a 52,000-year-old woolly mammoth found in Siberia using an innovative experimental technique. The findings "floored" at least one scientist, Hendrik Poinar, an evolutionary geneticist at McMaster University in Ontario.
President Biden's campaign faces challenges to his leadership, and a key figure trying to keep him on track is Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, who also worked as the lead strategist for Canada's Liberal Party in 2015 when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was elected.
From The Athletic: Argentina defeated Canada in the semifinals at the Copa América soccer tournament.
For the first time since 2017, Costco is raising its membership fees in both Canada and the United States.

Vjosa Isai is a reporter and researcher for The New York Times in Toronto.

How are we doing?
We're eager to have your thoughts about this newsletter and events in Canada in general. Please send them to nytcanada@nytimes.com.

Like this email?
Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up here.

Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance.

You received this email because you signed up for Canada Letter from The New York Times.

To stop receiving Canada Letter, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request.

Subscribe to The Times Get The New York Times app

Connect with us on: