News Information and Media Site: How Trump could make history in Iowa and New Hampshire

From Mark Murray, Bridget Bowman and Alexandra Marquez

Thursday, January 04, 2024

FIRST READ

How Trump could make history in Iowa and New Hampshire

Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images file

Happening this Thursday: We're now 11 days out until the Iowa caucuses… NBC's Dasha Burns and the Des Moines Register's Brianne Pfannenstiel interview Ron DeSantis… Donald Trump asks Supreme Court to overturn Colorado ballot ruling… Vivek Ramaswamy, in interview, argues that Trump is "wounded" and GOP needs a new leader… And the Biden campaign previews upcoming Jan. 6 speech with new TV ad, NBC's Mike Memoli reports.

But FIRST… Donald Trump has the opportunity to do something no non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate has ever done before.

That's win both the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary – back-to-back – over the next 20 days.

Ronald Reagan didn't do it in 1980 (he lost Iowa to George H.W. Bush). George W. Bush didn't do it in 2000, either (he lost in New Hampshire to John McCain). Mitt Romney couldn't do it in 2012 (he lost, barely, to Rick Santorum, in Iowa). And ditto Donald Trump in 2016 (after losing in Iowa but winning New Hampshire).

And that's just to name some of those past contests.

Indeed, the only modern non-incumbent presidential candidates to win both Iowa and New Hampshire were Democrats – Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. (Bernie Sanders came oh-so-close to the feat in both in 2016 and 2020.)

It's that history that perhaps gives Nikki Haley (or someone else) more than a puncher's chance of defeating Trump in New Hampshire, where the GOP contest has gotten a bit closer in recent weeks and where independent/undeclared primary voters play an outsized role.

But it's also that history that signals why this Republican presidential race might be different than those past GOP contests above: Trump, as a past president, is acting more like an incumbent than a non-incumbent.

Especially when the polling – for now – shows a majority of Republican primary voters wanting him to continue as the Republican Party's leader.

Headline of the day

The number of the day is ... more than 60

That's how many House Republican lawmakers on Wednesday visited the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas, as the party seeks to make border security a top issue in 2024.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., who led the group, called the situation at the border "an unmitigated disaster, a catastrophe," and blamed Biden for an increase in migrants crossing the border illegally.

House Republicans' visit came on the same day the Justice Department sued Texas over a state law that allows state and local police to arrest migrants who illegally cross the border.

But, border security is not the only issue leading to clashes between the Biden administration and Texas, NBC's Gabe Gutierrez reports. Reproductive rights are also at the center of "seething animosity" between GOP Gov. Greg Abbott and Biden, Gutierrez writes.

Blog / Meet The Press

Eyes on November: Ramaswamy's closing argument in Iowa

Jamie Kelter Davis for NBC News

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is making his pitch to former President Donald Trump's supporters in Iowa that he is actually the candidate to take Trump's agenda even further.

Ramaswamy sat down for a wide-ranging joint interview with NBC News and the Des Moines Register as part of a series of interviews with GOP candidates ahead of the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15. And he repeated his assertions that the "system" is not going to allow Trump to return to the White House.

Ramaswamy said he could overcome that system because, "They don't have on me what they have on him," referring to Trump's ongoing legal battles.

"I do think we're in the middle of a kind of cold cultural war in this country, between those of us who love the United States of America, and a fringe minority who hates this country and what we stand for," Ramaswamy said. "And when it comes to selecting a commander in chief, a general, to lead us to victory in that war, I think I'm best positioned to do it — with fresh legs, as a leader who is not yet wounded in that war."

Ramaswamy still contended that he believes he can win the Iowa caucuses, despite recent polling showing him in the single digits. And, he pledged, "I'm going in this 'til the very end."

Ramaswamy also discussed his recent comments on conspiracy theories, his endorsement from former controversial GOP Rep. Steve King, his thoughts on abortion and more. Watch the full interview on NBCnews.com.

In other campaign news …

Democracy on the airwaves: The Biden campaign is launching a new 60-second TV ad on Saturday focused on his fight for democracy, arguing that democracy faces threats from "MAGA extremism" and the GOP, per NBC's Mike Memoli. The ad will launch as Biden gives a speech on Saturday, the third anniversary of the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.

Targeting Haley: Trump's campaign is planning to target former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley on immigration in a new ad in New Hampshire, NBC's Ali Vitali, Jake Traylor and Megan Lebowitz report.

Ballot appeal: Trump is taking the standoff over the Colorado ballot to the Supreme Court, asking the high court on Wednesday to overturn a state court ruling that barred Trump from the Colorado ballot due to his effort to overturn the 2020 election, per NBC's Lawrence Hurley. Senate Republicans' campaign arm also filed a brief to support Trump's appeal, per the New York Times.

Taking on Trump: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has faced increasing questions on the campaign trail about why he hasn't criticized Trump more directly, the New York Times reports.

Endorsement alert: House Republican Whip Tom Emmer and the entire Minnesota Republican House delegation endorsed Trump on Wednesday, joining over 80 House members who have already endorsed the former president. Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton also endorsed Trump's campaign on Wednesday.

On the ballot: Utah on Wednesday became the first state to grant ballot access to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent candidate for president.

Leaning into a major issue: Several Latina candidates for the House and Senate are centering the issue of abortion rights in their campaign messaging and strategy this year, Roll Call reports.

The cavalry comes in: The conservative Club for Growth on Wednesday endorsed Trump's preferred candidate in Ohio's Senate race, businessman Bernie Moreno.

They're running: GOP Rep. John Curtis and Brent Orrin Hatch, the son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, both said Tuesday that they would run for Senate in Utah, seeking to fill an open seat currently occupied by retiring GOP Sen. Mitt Romney.

Next chapter: Former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2023, will now lead a group that rails against "woke ideology" in the corporate sector.

Video of the day

Full Interview: Vivek Ramaswamy says voters will reward his 'authenticity,' but he'd be 'at peace' with losing

ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world?

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is headed to the Middle East, where he will make a stop in Israel. It is his fourth visit to the region since Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

State capitol buildings in at least six states were forced to evacuate after bomb threats on Wednesday.

NBC's Lawrence Hurley examines how Trump's conservative appointees to the Supreme Court — Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett – don't always rule in his favor.