The Morning: What the polls say about Gaza

Plus, Henry Kissinger, Elon Musk and Spotify Wrapped.

View in browser|nytimes.com November 30, 2023 SUPPORTED BY APPLE CARD By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering Americans' opinions about the war in Gaza — as well as Henry Kissinger, Elon Musk and Spotify Wrapped. An Israeli soldier at the entrance to Kibbutz Re'im. Amit Elkayam for The New York Times What polls show In our polarized country, it counts as news whenever members of one political party deeply disagree on an issue. The Israel-Hamas war has become an example for the Democratic Party. Many Democrats — including members of the Biden administration — are divided over Israel's war strategy. That divide has rightly received a lot of attention. But the focus on Democratic infighting can obscure other parts of American public opinion about the war. In today's newsletter, I will walk through four main findings from recent polls. 1. More Americans support Israelis than support Palestinians. This finding holds across polls. When a Marist poll (conducted for NPR and PBS) asked people which side they sympathized with more, 61 percent chose Israelis and 30 percent chose Palestinians. When YouGov (in a poll for The Economist) asked a similar question with a third option — "about equal" — the results also favored Israelis: Source: The Economist/YouGov poll from Nov. 25-27 In an NBC poll, Israel's approval rating — with 47 percent of Americans saying they feel positively toward it, compared with 24 percent who feel negatively — was very similar to Ukraine's right now. Only 1 percent of Americans feel positively about Hamas, and 81 percent felt negatively. Similarly, most people blame Hamas for starting the war — that is, they see the Oct. 7 killing and kidnapping of Israelis as the central cause, rather than longer-standing issues like Israel's blockade of Gaza. In a Quinnipiac poll that asked Americans who was "more responsible for the outbreak of violence," 69 percent chose Hamas and 15 percent chose Israel. Most Americans also believe that Israel is an important ally of the U.S. The Quinnipiac poll asked people whether supporting Israel was in the national interest of the United States, and 70 percent said it was. 2. Americans are worried about the civilian toll in Gaza, and support for Israel's actions has slipped. Although most respondents in the recent Marist poll said that Israel's military response has been either appropriate or too restrained, the number who called it too aggressive has risen since last month: Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist polls The share of people who said they sympathized more with Palestinians than Israelis has also increased — to 25 percent this month from 15 percent last month, according to the Quinnipiac poll. A major reason appears to be the civilian death toll in Gaza, which is mostly women and children. More than 80 percent of Americans told Ipsos (in a poll for Reuters conducted a couple weeks ago) that Israel should pause military operations, as it since has, to allow humanitarian aid to reach Gazans. 3. Public opinion isn't always consistent. Consider these two facts: One, most Americans say that Israel's military response has been both reasonable and understandable. In the Ipsos poll, for instance, 76 percent of people agreed that "Israel is doing what any country would do in response to a terror attack and the taking of civilian hostages." Two, most Americans say they favor an end to the fighting. They support not only a humanitarian pause but also a full cease-fire. In the YouGov poll, the margin favoring a cease-fire was 65 percent to 16 percent. In the Ipsos poll, 68 percent of people agreed that "Israel should call a cease-fire and try to negotiate." This combination of views doesn't quite mesh. A full cease-fire would amount to a defeat for Israel and a victory for Hamas, with Hamas's leaders able to claim the Oct. 7 attacks as a major success. Still, you can understand why many Americans would hold this mix of views: They both support Israel's effort to topple Hamas and do not want Palestinians to keep dying. Poll questions don't always ask people to make consistent choices. I encourage readers to avoid the temptation to focus on only one of these two patterns — the support for a cease-fire or for Israel's military actions — and to ignore the other one. Yes, only one of the two findings is convenient to each side in the debate, but both findings are real. 4. Very liberal Americans view this war differently from most other Americans. Democrats sometimes like to point out ways in which Republican views depart from majority opinion, and there certainly are such cases. But there are also issues on which Democrats, especially those who identify as very liberal, have views that most Americans do not. This war has become an example. While most Americans told Marist that Israel's military response was either "about right" or "too little," most Democrats — 56 percent — said it was "too much." And this breakdown from the YouGov poll is stark: Source: The Economist/YouGov poll from Nov. 25-27 Self-described "very liberal" Americans express more support for Palestinians than Israelis. No other ideological group does. That helps explain the intensity of the debate on the American left. More on the war Israel and Hamas extended their cease-fire. Hamas said it would last another day, while Israel did not give a timeline. Two Palestinian gunmen killed at least three people in Jerusalem, Israeli officials said. Hamas freed 16 more hostages yesterday, including an American citizen. Read about those released. Hamas said that previous Israeli airstrikes had killed three hostages: a mother and two young red-haired children whose image has spread widely. The claim hasn't been verified. Israel released more than two dozen women and children from prison, including the prominent Palestinian activist Ahed Tamimi. To some Palestinians in the West Bank, freed prisoners have become a symbol of Hamas's ability to get results. After Palestinian American students were shot in Vermont, one survivor said the attack shattered the idea that he was safer in the U.S. Continue reading the main story A MESSAGE FROM APPLE CARD Give Gifts. Get Rewarded with Apple Card. Get up to 3 percent Daily Cash back on every purchase, every day. Apply now in minutes. APPLY NOW THE LATEST NEWS Henry Kissinger Henry Kissinger in London in 1972. Evening Standard/Hulton Archive, via Getty Images Henry Kissinger, a scholar-turned-diplomat who shaped U.S. foreign policy over six decades as an adviser to 12 presidents, died at 100. Read his obituary. The most powerful secretary of state of the post-World War II era, Kissinger engineered the U.S. opening to China, negotiated America's withdrawal from Vietnam and eased relations with the Soviet Union. Kissinger also disregarded human rights when he thought it would serve U.S. interests. He helped topple Chile's president in 1973 and authorized a bombing campaign in Cambodia that killed 50,000 civilians. Kissinger remained active after leaving office. He co-wrote a book about artificial intelligence at 96 and met with Xi Jinping, China's leader, in July. Politics Donald Trump was "depressed" and "not eating" after his 2020 election loss, according to Liz Cheney's memoir. One of Trump's lawyers warned him last year that it would be a crime to not comply with a subpoena for classified documents he took to Mar-a-Lago. Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, urged Americans to "help Nikki Haley" win the 2024 Republican nomination. Political operatives and conspiracy theorists are using open records requests to slow down government work, The Texas Tribune reports. President Biden clapped back at Representative Lauren Boebert, a right-wing Republican who has criticized his climate law, while visiting a wind-turbine factory in her district. Climate The U.N. climate conference begins today in Dubai during the hottest year in recorded history. Many are skeptical that the summit, known as COP28, will produce results. Vice President Kamala Harris will attend the summit instead of Biden. Countries have started to clean up their power plants and cars. But emissions from cement or chemical factories have been harder to curb. See the largest sources of planet-warming pollution. The E.P.A. proposed a requirement to replace virtually all lead water pipes in the U.S. over the next decade. Airlines say ethanol, a fuel made from corn, is the future of air travel. But growing enough crops could drain groundwater supplies. Tech Elon Musk said an advertising boycott on his social platform, X, could bankrupt the company. He added a crude insult. Sam Altman, back at OpenAI, said he would improve products and build a new board, with Microsoft as a nonvoting member. Blue vs. green bubbles: Apple will improve the texting experience with Android phones. Other Big Stories For nearly two decades, a loose band of sheriff's deputies roamed central Mississippi, and, witnesses say, tortured people for information. An Indian man was charged with plotting to kill a Sikh activist in New York City. The thwarted plan resembled an assassination in Canada. Most drivers will probably have to pay $15 to enter some of the busiest streets in Manhattan as soon as next spring. Opinions The recycling industry is slow and limited. Those pushing to abandon it should first try to improve it, Oliver Franklin-Wallis writes. Here are columns by Charles Blow on the 2024 elections, Pamela Paul on Trump and Gail Collins on the Electoral College. The Times has something for everyone — insightful reporting, daily games, doable recipes, detailed product reviews and personalized sports journalism. Enjoy it all with an All Access subscription. MORNING READS Spotify's Sound Town feature. Spotify Wrapped: Did Spotify say your music taste belongs in Burlington, Vt., or Bozeman, Mont.? Here's why. Moose on the loose: Fans follow Minnesota's most famous moose everywhere he goes. All you can eat: Red Lobster had to raise the price on an endless shrimp deal that it said helped it lose $11 million. Thrift-store find: The painting she bought for $4 fetched $191,000 at auction. But then the buyer reneged. Lives Lived: Frances Sternhagen played mothers on "Cheers" and "Sex and the City," and her Tony-winning Broadway career included "Driving Miss Daisy" and "On Golden Pond." She died at 93. SPORTS Angel Reese: The L.S.U. women's basketball star will return after a four-game absence. Her coach declined to say why she was benched. N.B.A.: The police are investigating allegations that the Oklahoma City Thunder guard Josh Giddey, 21, had an inappropriate relationship with a minor. Continue reading the main story A MESSAGE FROM APPLE CARD Give Gifts. Get Rewarded with Apple Card. Get up to 3 percent Daily Cash back on every purchase, every day. Apply now in minutes. APPLY NOW ARTS AND IDEAS Paddington Bear in "Interstellar." Jason Chou Paddington Bear, everywhere: Jason Chou — or @JaytheChou as he is known on X — is undertaking a feat of digital endurance. In March 2021, he began posting images of Paddington, the anthropomorphized bear, edited into scenes from movies and TV shows like "The Rocky Horror Picture Show" and "Forrest Gump." In each post, he pledged to continue "until I forget." He has yet to forget. On Sunday, Chou will reach an impressive milestone: his 1,000th post. More on culture ​After tensions rose among its members​, a ​country ​music ​venue ​in Scotland ​voted to end ​its display of ​the Confederate ​flag. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Simpson for The New York Times Roast salmon with fruity citrus, dill, spicy radishes and ginger. Watch Ridley Scott's "Gladiator" before it leaves Netflix. Choose the perfect gift for a teenager. Curl up and watch a holiday movie on a good TV. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was expound and expounded. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David P.S. Thanks to my colleague Ruth Igielnik, a polling expert, for help with today's newsletter. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. 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