News Information and Media Site: Everything you need to know for Election Night

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman and Alexandra Marquez

Tuesday, November 01, 2022

FIRST READ

Here's how to watch the early midterm returns

Joe Raedle / Getty Images

If it's TUESDAY… President Biden, in Florida, attends events for Charlie Crist in FL-GOV and Val Demings in FL-SEN… Barack Obama campaigns in Nevada… Battle for Senate control is a "jump ball," NBC's Sahil Kapur writes… And be sure to watch tonight's "Meet the Press" Election Special that begins at 8:00 pm ET on NBC News Now.

But FIRST… Election Day is just one week away, and if you want to prepare like a pro, make sure to bookmark the new NBC News Political Unit Election Book, our guide to everything you need to know about the upcoming midterms.

And if you want to see how the early winds are blowing on Election Night, make sure to keep close tabs on these five contests to watch in states/districts that typically count their votes quickly:

IN-1 (7:00 pm ET poll close): This is a Toss Up congressional race between Dem incumbent Frank Mrvan and GOP challenger Jennifer Ruth-Green in this Gary, Ind.-area district that Biden won by 8 points in 2020. If Republicans win it, it's a strong sign they're headed for a good night.

VA-2 (7:00 pm ET poll close): This contest – one of our eight "consequential" House races – is essentially a must-win for Democrats if they have a shot at holding the House (or coming close to it). It's between Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va., one of the members of the Jan. 6 committee, and Republican challenger Jennifer Kiggans, who, like Luria, is a Navy veteran.

FL-SEN (most polls close at 7:00 pm ET, final polls in the western Panhandle close at 8:00 pm ET): Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is favored against Dem challenger Val Demings, but this contest will give us one of our first statewide tests of how Election Night is playing. Remember, the early votes (typically Dem-leaning) come in first, followed by the Election Day votes (typically GOP-leaning).

NC-SEN (7:30 pm ET poll close): This race between Rep. Ted Budd, R-N.C., and Democrat Cheri Beasley for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., is another early statewide contest to watch. Beasley hanging tough by 9:00 pm ET or so would be a good sign for Democrats.

OH-SEN (7:30 pm ET poll close): This contest – between Republican J.D. Vance and Dem Tim Ryan – is our third early statewide race to watch. If networks like NBC News haven't called it by 9:00 pm ET or 10:00 pm ET, you know that Democrats are having a stronger-than-expected night. Conversely, if Vance locks it down early, Republicans are asserting their strength in states where they've had plenty of recent success.

An important reminder, however: This is only an EARLY guide. After all, it's very possible that Dems could lose all three of FL-SEN, NC-SEN and OH-SEN and still hold on to the Senate.

But to see that story play out, we might have to wait a day or two or three to see how the vote is going in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

For more on how to watch Election Night – as well as everything else you need to know about the midterms – check out our network's 62-page Election Book we're releasing to the general public.

Take a look to study up on all the contests, all of the exit polls and all of the history.

Tweet of the Day

The rural vote

Data Download: The number of the day is ... 8

In addition to Virginia's 2nd District, which we mentioned earlier, there are seven other House races we'll be watching very closely on Election Night for clues about where the political winds are blowing. You can delve deeper into each of these races in our election guide, but here's a quick rundown:

Along with VA-2, two open seat races in Colorado's 8th District and North Carolina's 13th District are playing out in very evenly divided districts.

In the fight for the suburbs, pay attention to Minnesota's 2nd District, where Democratic Rep. Angie Craig is in a rematch against GOP Marine veteran Tyler Kistner; Nevada's 3rd District, where Democratic Rep. Susie Lee is facing GOP attorney April Becker; and Nebraska's 2nd District, where GOP Rep. Don Bacon is running against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas.

Pennsylvania's 8th District, which includes Biden's hometown of Scranton, will test each party's sway with blue collar voters, and whether Democratic incumbents with strong personal brands can hang on. The race features Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright against GOP businessman and former Trump administration official Jim Bognet, also a rematch from 2020.

And for clues about whether Republicans can win over voters in deep blue districts, keep an eye on California's 22nd District, where GOP Rep. David Valadao (who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6) is taking on Democratic state Assemblyman Rudy Salas.

Other numbers you need to know today

$81.7 million

That's how much Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock's campaign has been spent on ads in the Georgia Senate race, making him the 8th highest spending campaign ever, per AdImpact.

$275,000

How much the Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC is spending on an ad buy in New York's 25th District, a deep blue seat, per Politico.

43%

President Biden's approval rating in a new poll from The Wall Street Journal.

That's how many elections Israel has had in four years, as voters there head to the polls again after the coalition that ended former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed this summer.

133,000

The number of U.S. homeowners who can save money with a mortgage refinance today, down from more than 19 million in 2020, according to data reported on in this Wall Street Journal story about how rising rates have affected the mortgage industry.

Blog / Meet The Press

Midterm roundup: Polls, polls and more polls

Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

On the heels of Monday's New York Times/Siena College polls in key Senate races, Monday brought a deluge of new polls showing jump-ball races across the battlefield.

In Nevada, the new Nevada Independent/OH Predictive Insights poll found Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak both up narrowly (by 2% and 4% respectively) over their GOP opponents, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo with leads well within the margin of error.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's final poll found a razor-thin margin in Georgia's Senate race – Republican Herschel Walker leading Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock 46%-45%, but more breathing room in the governor's race, where Republican Gov. Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams 51%-44%. (Again, both leads are within the margin of error.)

And both statewide races are virtual tossups in Arizona — Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly leads Republican Blake Masters 48%-46%, while Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake leads Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs 49%-47%.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail…

AZ-SEN: The New York Times reports that the Libertarian nominee for Senate, Marc Victor, will drop out and endorse Republican Blake Masters in the hopes of not playing spoiler. But the move comes well into early voting.

FL-SEN: Democratic Rep. Val Demings launched her closing TV ad of the Senate race, focusing on her biography and warning that GOP Sen. Marco Rubio saying he will "gut Social Security and Medicare." Demings will also hit the trail Tuesday with Biden for a rally in South Florida, per a press release from her campaign.

GA-SEN: A new ad from the Senate Leadership Fund uses police body camera footage from Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock's ex-wife, where she claims he ran over her foot. Warnock denied the allegation when it became public during his 2020 race. And one of the women who says Republican nominee Herschel Walker encouraged her to have an abortion spoke to ABC News (Walker continues to deny the allegations).

NH-SEN: Former President Donald Trump endorsed GOP Senate nominee Don Bolduc, noting writing in a Truth Social post that Bolduc "was a strong and proud 'Election Denier,' a big reason that he won the Nomination, but he then disavowed," adding that Bolduc "has since come back." Bolduc also teamed up with the National Republican Senatorial Committee for a new TV ad.

PA-SEN: Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman discussed his debate performance, his past comments on fracking and inflation with NBC 10's Lauren Mayk.

WA-SEN: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is launching her closing TV ad of the race, tying her GOP opponent, Tiffany Smiley, to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

AZ-GOV: GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake appeared to mock the attack on Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband during a campaign event on Monday.

GA-GOV: Former Vice President Mike Pence is joining GOP Gov. Brian Kemp on the campaign trail today, NBC News' Blayne Alexander reports. Pence and Kemp will hold two events in GOP strongholds. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is also joining Kemp on the trail later this week.

MI-GOV: A new ad from Get Michigan Working Again harkens back to the days of Covid restrictions, calling Whitmer a "dishonest hypocrite" for her handling of those policies.

OK-GOV: Former GOP Congressman J.C. Watts cut an ad supporting Democratic gubernatorial nominee Joy Hofmeister over Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, where he says "all this scandal and corruption is just too much."

VA-2: In a new ad in a race featuring two Navy veterans, the Congressional Leadership Fund is out with a new ad that asks voters from the deck of a military ship if they want to "stay the course, or change direction?"

MI-7: Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., is hitting the campaign trail today for an event with Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin.

Ad watch: Going on offense, with one week to go

One week ahead of Election Day, the GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund is launching its first ad in Arizona's 2nd District, targeting Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran.

"After Tom O'Halleran backed Biden's spending plan … where'd the money go? Pet projects like golf course renovations … bailouts for luxury spas … even convicts got cash," a narrator says in the ad, shared first with NBC News.

O'Halleran is locked in a tight race with Republican nominee Eli Crane. In the ad, a narrator tells viewers, "For real service, Eli Crane: Navy SEAL."

The ad is part of a $1.8 million ad buy by CLF in Phoenix that will be used in Arizona's 1st and 2nd Districts. "Republicans are in a great position to flip this seat, and we're investing to help ensure we do," Cally Perkins, the group's press secretary, told NBC News in a statement.

The best of Meet the Press NOW

Kornacki: Midterm polling sending 'mixed signals' with just 8 days to go

ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world?

Prosecutors at the state and federal level announced criminal charges against Paul Pelosi's attacker on Monday.

The Supreme Court heard arguments in two cases on Monday regarding consideration of race in admissions to Harvard University and the University of North Carolina.