2. GOP turnout has exceeded Dem turnout
Reflecting the Republican enthusiasm we see in polls, nearly twice as many Republicans turned out in Texas' March gubernatorial primary (1.95 million) as Democrats did (1.075 million).
In Ohio's gubernatorial primary earlier this month, GOP turnout (nearly 1.1 million) was more than twice Dem turnout (502,000).
The one race where Dem turnout (1.28 million) got close to GOP turnout (1.34 million) was in PA-SEN.
3. Republicans have nominated some problematic nominees
They include – so far – Doug Mastriano in PA-GOV and J.R. Majewski in OH-9 (who will face Dem incumbent Marcy Kaptur).
It will be an important story to follow if this list grows during the summer.
4. There are still several uncalled races
They include the GOP recount in PA-SEN between Mehmet Oz and David McCormick (where Oz leads by just 959 votes), the TX-28 runoff between Henry Cuellar and Jessica Cisneros (where Cuellar leads by 177 votes) and the OR-5 Dem primary (where incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader trails).
All of the uncalled races, per NBC News' Decision Desk:
May 3
OH-4 (no call in Dem primary to take on Jim Jordan)
May 17
OR-SEN GOP primary- too early to call
OR-5 Dem primary
NC-7 Dem primary
KY-3 GOP primary
PA-SEN GOP primary
May 24
TX-28 Runoff (D)
GA-1 (D)
TX-15 Runoff (D)
TX-24 Runoff (D)
5. Progressives have had a mixed win-loss record
Nina Turner lost – again – in OH-11. Erica Smith and Nida Allam lost in NC-1 and NC-4, respectively. And Jessica Cisneros trails in TX-28.
But the good news for progressives have come with Summer Lee's victory in PA-12, as well as Jamie McLeod-Skinner's current lead over Schrader in OR-5.
6. Dem leaders' endorsements haven't been all that hot, either
Donald Trump hasn't been the only party leader who has seen his endorsed candidate lose/trailing.
Remember, President Biden endorsed Schrader in OR-5.
And despite getting the endorsement from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Whip Jim Clyburn, Cuellar is leading by fewer than 200 votes in TX-28.
Bottom line: Both establishments have shown some vulnerabilities.
7. Republican incumbents haven't paid a price for certifying the 2020 election results
Several months ago, it sure looked like Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger would lose their primaries – simply for certifying the 2020 presidential results.
But both won last week.
One other way to look at this trend: Being the super-Trumpy candidate – either Perdue in GA-GOV, Hice in GA-SOS, or Herbster in NE-GOV – isn't a guarantee to victory.
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