My Blue Heaven? … and VA-GOV isn’t the only race we’re watching tonight

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Ben Kamisar FIRST READ: Just how blue is Virginia? We'll find out tonight Over the last two decades, Virginia has transformed – politically and demographically – from a state that broke for Republican George W. Bush by 8 points in 2004, to one that Democrat Joe Biden won by 10 points in 2020.   And in today's race for Virginia governor between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin, just how blue the state has become will be put to the test in a political environment that has deteriorated for Democrats in Biden's first year as president.   As we've told you before, two trends have hovered over this contest.   Trend No. 1: Of the 14 major statewide contests since 2005 – for president, the Senate and governor – Democrats have won 13. The exception was Republican Bob McDonnell's gubernatorial victory in 2009.   Trend No. 2: Since the 1970s, the party that just won White House has always lost this gubernatorial contest the following year, with just one exception.   That exception? McAuliffe's narrow 2.5-point victory in 2013, which was colored by a corruption scandal involving the aforementioned McDonnell, a government shutdown and the crash of the Obamacare website. Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters It was just seven years ago, back in 2014, when Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., BARELY won re-election the last time Democrats faced these kinds of political headwinds.   How much has Virginia changed since then? We'll find out tonight.   One more point about Virginia and its political hue: It's been a pragmatic blue – with Warner, Tim Kaine, Ralph Northam, Abigail Spanberger and a McAuliffe who won his primary last June by more than 40 percentage points.    Has the Democratic Party's progressive transformation, at least on Capitol Hill, also played a role in this race? Math, momentum and uncertainty For all of the discussion of poll movement, crowd sizes and yard-sign counts, there are only three things we're sure about going into tonight:   One, that this race for Virginia governor is close.   Two, as Politico writes, Democrats have math on their side, while Republicans have momentum.   And three, there's PLENTY of uncertainty in this contest, especially when we start seeing election returns come in.   If you've followed Virginia elections over the past decade like we have, it's traditionally been a state that's counted quickly, that's had most voters casting ballots on Election Day, and that's had rural counties reporting first and Dem-heavy Northern Virginia voting last.   But we know that more than 1 million Virginians have already voted early. We also expect different counties to report on their early votes vs. day-of votes at different times. And unlike in 2020, Dems believe many of their voters have returned to their pre-pandemic patterns of voting on Election Day, while the GOP has run an aggressive early-vote campaign.   So a bit caution: When the returns START coming in, they might not tell the whole story.   Let's be patient to see ALL of the votes come in after polling places close at 7:00 pm ET.   By the way, since we're expecting a close contest, there is no automatic recount in Virginia. But per the State Board of Elections, the losing candidate has 10 days after the certification of the election (Nov. 15, in this case) to request a recount if they fall within 1 percent of the winner. Tweet of the Day: VA-GOV isn't the only race we're watching tonight More from our poll: 50 percent of Republicans doubt their votes will be counted accurately: One of us writes on the latest numbers from our new NBC News poll:   "Two-thirds of all registered voters, 66 percent, say they are confident their vote will be counted accurately, down from 85 percent in October 2020. And 29 percent say they are not confident that their vote will be counted accurately in the future, compared to 11 percent who said the same a year ago."   The decline has come mainly from Republicans:   "Last year, 84 percent of Republicans said they were confident in the vote count, about on par with Democrats. But now, 41 percent of Republicans share that view, while 50 percent say they are not confident their vote will be counted accurately."   And: "Just 22 percent of Republican adults believe that Biden was elected legitimately, while 71 percent of independents and 93 percent of Democrats said they believe that Biden's election was legitimate." Data Download: The numbers you need to know today 75 percent: The portion of the country's methane emissions that will be covered by new Biden administration regulations on those emissions from oil and gas infrastructure.   2070: When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged that the nation will aim to reach net zero carbon emissions.   46,109,378: The number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the United States, per the most recent data from NBC News and health officials. (That's 123,716 more since Monday morning.)   750,541: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far, per the most recent data from NBC News. (That's 1,267 more since Monday morning.)   423,005,384: The number of total vaccine doses administered in the U.S., per the CDC. (That's 935,285 more since Monday morning.)   19,178,738: The number of booster vaccine doses administered in the U.S., per the CDC. (That's 571,233 more since Monday morning.)   58 percent: The share of all Americans who are fully vaccinated, per the CDC.   69.6 percent: The share of all Americans 18-years and older who are fully vaccinated, per the CDC. ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world? Here's what to watch for in the Virginia's race for governor.   The jury in the case against Kyle Rittenhouse has been selected, with opening statements starting Tuesday.   Here's what's still up in the air as the Democrats look to land the plane on their $1.75 trillion social spending package.     The wife of Pennsylvania Republican Senate hopeful Sean Parnell testified Monday that he abused her, allegations Parnell has denied. Thanks for reading. If you're a fan, please forward this to a friend. They can sign up here.   We love hearing from our readers, so shoot us a line here with your comments and suggestions.   Thanks,  Chuck, Mark and Ben Follow Meet The Press Download the NBC News Mobile App Privacy Contact Unsubscribe