Friday, November 19, 2021

Are you afraid of the market's bears?

Dear Reader,

Morgan Stanley recently made a bold statement.

They said that U.S. stocks will go down in 2022.

More specifically, they put their 12-month price target for the S&P 500 at 4,400. That's about 6% below where the market has been over the last week.

Morgan Stanley strategists recently said, "We think that 2022 is really about 'mid to late-cycle' challenges: better growth squaring off against high valuations, tightening policy, rambunctious investor activity and inflation being higher than most investors are used to."

That could be perceived as unsettling news. So, what's an investor to do?

While I think it would be foolish to ignore these headlines, it is essential to place some context around them.

1. As an investor, it's easy to get "smoked" in the short term. Looking at an average year for the S&P 500, we often see a drawdown of 14%. We even see this drawdown during bull markets. So a 6% decline from current levels is very manageable.

2. We have to remember that valuations won't give us a whole lot of information about the next year. Yes, valuations are currently high. However, valuations have a pretty unbelievable track record of predicting the next 12 months worth of returns. Stocks will almost always stay more expensive for longer than you think.

Even after putting things into perspective, let's say Morgan Stanley is correct, and the stock market ends down 6% next year.

Lest we forget, the S&P 500 fell 6.2% in 2018 during year nine of an 11-year bull market, only to be followed by a 28.8% surge in 2019.

While some bear activity might be spotted in the market, I'm not running for cover anytime soon.

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Andrew Graham

Editor, Silver Ridge Market Report

P.S. Jeff Brown called Bitcoin when it was just $240—giving his readers a chance at 270 times their money. And now, he's come forward to warn of a disturbing new trend... something that he calls a "Tech Shock." An event which could derail the post COVID recovery—and send the NASDAQ and high-flying tech stocks into a tailspin. Click here for his warning.

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