Friday, July 2, 2021

2021 U.S. Soybean Outlook Remains Strong After Record First Quarter Export Volume

Photo of a field of young soybeans

2021 U.S. Soybean Outlook Remains Strong After Record First Quarter Export Volume

In the first quarter of 2021, U.S. soybean exports reached the second-highest value ever at $7.7 billion, nearly double the same period last year. This growth was driven by record first quarter export volumes coupled with high prices, which have been climbing steadily during the past year. Export volumes are up substantially due to the rebound of trade with China owing to the removal of retaliatory tariffs, the rebuilding of the swine herd from African swine fever (ASF), and a delayed South American harvest extending the U.S. selling window. Export values were further supported by U.S. soybean prices increasing to 7-year highs on strong China purchases, high corn prices, and tight supplies in the United States and South America.

Building off record first quarter export volumes, 2021 is poised to be an excellent year for U.S. soybeans. Aided by sustained high prices and growing trade with major markets outside of China, such as Egypt and Mexico, export values are likely to remain strong throughout the year. However, facing expanding domestic crush, smaller carryin, high prices, and a record crop in Brazil, U.S. soybean export tonnage is unlikely to match last year's record. With sustained high prices and growing global consumption, 2021 is likely to be another strong year for U.S. soybean exports.

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