The following Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) reports were released on Friday, December 18, 2020.
For MY 2020/21, Post forecasts fresh lemon production at 1.03 MMT, down 30 percent from MY 2019/20, due to cold damage and dry growing conditions. For fresh sweet citrus, Post estimates production at 700,000 MT for oranges and 360,000 MT for tangerines, up 7.5 percent and 16 percent, respectively, from MY 2019/20. Lemon exports are estimated to decline to 190,000 MT while orange exports increase slightly to 80,000 MT, and tangerines remain flat at 35,000 MT. Private sources estimate that Argentine lemon exports to the U.S. in MY 2019/20 could reach 40,000 MT in MY 2020/21. The COVID-19 pandemic has not had a major impact on the activity of the Argentine citrus fruit industry. Citrus production in Australia is experiencing a major turnaround as a result of drought-breaking rains in 2020 throughout much of the citrus producing regions. The improved rainfall in 2020 will have a significant positive impact on forecast production in 2021 (marketing year 2020/21) with orange production at 535,000 metric tons (MT), and tangerine/mandarin production at 175,000 MT, both around a 10 percent increase over the drought-impacted marketing year (MY) 2019/20. Orange exports are forecast at 195,000 MT, a three percent increase over the strong campaign in MY 2019/20, and tangerine/mandarin exports are set to rebound by 29 percent to 80,000 MT. The citrus industry is concerned by an expected further reduction of labor available for harvest in 2021, an impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the federal and state governments are working with the industry to try and mitigate this impact.
This report should be read in conjunction with the EU-28 Food and Agricultural Import Regulations and Standards (FAIRS) report written by the U.S. Mission to the EU. This report focuses on the import regulations and standards that are not harmonized at EU-level or where Belgium varies. In MY 2020/21, EU citrus production is projected to grow 7.5 percent compared to previous season to 11.4 MMT. Favorable weather conditions in the top EU citrus-producing countries and a rebound from the previous season account for the projected rise in EU citrus production. The recovery in EU production and higher global demand for citrus derived from the COVID-19 pandemic may encourage EU exports to strategic markets and discourage EU imports. Strategic export markets destinations for EU citrus continue to be Canada, the Middle East, and China, followed by Switzerland, Norway, and Serbia. Additional tariffs related to the ongoing World Trade Organization (WTO) cases against aircraft subsidies is expected to continue impacting citrus trade going both ways. In addition, the terms of the new EU-UK relationship may also affect EU citrus exports to UK.
Japan's Unshu Mikan production is expected to recover in MY 2020/21 following poor harvest in MY 2019/20. Increased household consumption of oranges due to the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a modest boost in imports of fresh oranges. Reflecting a COVID-19-driven decline in hotel, restaurant and institutional (HRI) consumption in MY 2019/20 and resulting stocks, Post projects MY 2020/21 imports of lemons and orange juice to slump. Grapefruit demand continues to steadily slip.
On November 30, the Government of Japan approved the Export Expansion Action Strategy for Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery Products, and Food with the stated goal to increase profits for businesses in these sectors. To achieve the overall export targets for these products of two trillion yen (US$19 billion) in 2025 and five trillion yen (US$48 billion) in 2030, the strategy identifies 27 products with export growth potential and outlines a course of action for increasing exports. In 2019, Japan's total exports of agricultural and related products totaled 912 billion yen (US$8.8 billion). The Government of Japan did not identify new, dedicated funding to support this effort within the strategy document, which calls for a market driven approach and greater collaboration throughout the supply chain and across government.
Kenya's import ban on genetically engineered (GE) products continues to constrain commerce and trade of agricultural products, preventing local producers, consumers, and industry access to improved products. The Government of Kenya however supports the second planting of Bt. cotton for commercialization, scheduled for the October-November 2020 short rainy season in the eastern and central regions. Bt. Cotton is expected to help revive the national cotton, textile, and apparel sector, a priority under President Kenyatta's Big Four Agenda. Orange production in marketing year (MY) 2020/21 is forecast to partially rebound after drought decimated last year's crop by nearly 40 percent. Residual soil health effects and low producer investments in orchard rehabilitation will prohibit full production recovery. Lack of government support for drought recovery, production inputs, and pest mitigation is likely to prevent significant sector growth in the coming years. While orange consumption is forecast higher than the previous MY, it is forecasted below average levels due to ongoing effects of COVID-19 sanitary measures. The hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) sector in Mexico has been greatly affected by COVID-19, with capacity restrictions still in place, and significant permanent closures have occurred. As a result, a higher percentage of fruit is expected to be sent to the processing industry.
There have been no recent significant official changes to the genetically engineered (GE) policies established by the New Zealand government. Food Standards Australia New Zealand, the regulatory authority for approving the sale of GE food products in New Zealand, has approved 78 GE food products to date. These food products could be for direct human consumption or animal feed. All GE foods sold in New Zealand must be labeled. Meat and other products from animals that have been fed GE-derived feed do not require labeling. The products resulting from biotech microbial fermentation are imported into New Zealand, but there is no commercial activity of this nature happening outside of containment trials. Rice export prices increased 2-3 percent due to concerns about the strength of the Thai baht.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
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Monday, December 21, 2020
GAIN Reports from Friday, December 18, 2020
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