Chile produces a quarter of the world's copper.
Output fell in each of the last five months of 2025 while export revenues climbed on higher prices. Fewer tonnes mined and more dollars spent equals depletion in real time.
New mines take an average of 17 years from discovery to production.
It takes permits, reviews, consultations, legal fights… the pipeline cannot respond to today's tightness until the mid-2030s.
Even aggressive recycling covers only one-quarter of 2040 demand.
The math points to a 10-million-tonne shortfall by 2040.
That gap only closes through higher prices.
Smelting copper adds another chokepoint…
China controls over 40% of global smelting capacity, and that share keeps growing. Treatment charges collapsed as smelters multiplied faster than concentrate supply.
Weaker operators got squeezed out.
Building Western smelters costs billions and takes years. Nobody wants to build Western smelters while China keeps adding capacity
The Copper Stock I’m Betting On…
Copper trades near all-time highs while governments stockpile and deficits widen. Goldman Sachs calls it overvalued but the market keeps bidding.
I've seen strategic metals reprice when supply constraints meet policy urgency. That’s where the new floor ends up higher than the old ceiling.
Many copper deals have crossed my desk this year and most don't survive due diligence. The ones worth owning share common traits: quality deposits, stable jurisdictions, and catalysts that work without $8 copper.
Just last month, my top copper pick nearly doubled since I first recommended it.
The company holds a joint venture interest in one of the world's largest copper-gold deposits. The underground expansion is ramping up, and the major next door will need every ounce.
The stock ran hard and I do believe it will run harder as my thesis plays out.
A takeout before year-end wouldn't surprise me, because the asset is too strategic to leave in small hands.
That’s why I own a significant position.
The reasons are all there: The world needs 50% more copper by 2040, supply peaks in four years and governments are stockpiling.
The math doesn't work and I’m positioning to capitalize on it.
You can find the name of the stock (and strategy) in my premium newsletter – Katusa’s Resource Opportunities.
Regards,
Marin Katusa
