Don placed a Christmas Tree trade LIVE this afternoon while the S&P crashed 1%.
He built the position from scratch on camera.
But that was just the beginning…
Then he showed his actual trade history:
- April's crash made him $1,400.
- October's five-day rally delivered $629.
- September's chop produced $818.
Zero losses on this setup since 2016. The strategy profits whether the market crashes, rallies, or sits flat.
👉 Watch the live trade replay now
Don here...
Jeff Bierman reminded us today that some things in life are inevitable. Benjamin Franklin said it best in 1789. Nothing is certain except death and taxes.
Jeff added a third certainty. Markets correct. Always. The timing? Unknown. The fact? Guaranteed.
Here's what makes today's market particularly dangerous…
The S&P 500 is 44% concentrated in just 10 tech stocks like Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Google…you know the names.
Bank of America analysts found only two other times in history when the market reached this concentration. 1990 and 1996.
What happened after? The market didn't implode. But upside vanished. Zero. When concentration reaches these levels, one or two stocks dropping restrains the entire index from moving higher.
In today's free session replay, you'll see:
- Why momentum breaks before trend changes—the market shows warning signs long before the actual correction begins, giving positioned traders time to act
- The defensive stock rotation nobody's watching yet—Norwegian Cruise Lines dropped 13% despite beating estimates because next year's consumer outlook is weakening
- How concentration risk creates market tops—when 10 stocks carry half the index weight, the math says upside is exhausted regardless of AI narratives
- The Federal Reserve split that could trigger December chaos—three governors now oppose rate cuts due to inflation concerns, up from just one two weeks ago
Jeff spent the session walking through Alexander Elder's Impulse System. It's a trend-momentum framework that's been around for decades. Simple enough that someone with zero market experience can learn it in an hour.
The system uses color coding. Green signals mean the trend is intact and momentum confirms it. Red signals mean both are declining together. Blue signals mean they disagree. Mixed signals. No trade.
Most traders complicate things. They pile on indicators. They listen to every talking head on Bloomberg and CNBC pushing narratives. The Elder system cuts through all that. It shows you when conditions align and when they don't.
This market has spoiled most traders. Seven straight months of walking higher without meaningful pullbacks. No consolidation. No normal rhythm. Just liquidity-fueled levitation.
That creates a problem. When selling accelerates, traders conditioned by this environment won't know how to manage risk. They've never experienced the normal zigzag pattern. Two steps up, one step back. That's how healthy markets operate.
Jeff made his positioning clear. Every time the market moves higher, he reduces long exposure. He's adding defensive positions in stocks like Ball Corporation and Bristol Myers. He's selectively shorting names that broke technical levels.
The momentum on the S&P has broken. The trend hasn't. That's the key distinction. When momentum fails first, trend change follows. Not immediately. But inevitably.
The TransUnion credit report Jeff highlighted tells the real story. Consumers with credit scores above 780 are spending more and improving their ratings. The top 5% are fine. Everyone else? The 80% of Americans with credit scores below 600 are getting worse. Credit declining 17 points in a month.
Wall Street and Main Street are diverging. The bifurcation is widening. Eventually that drags on discretionary spending. Cars. Vacations. Everything non-essential gets cut first.
→ See How Jeff Identifies Market Inflection Points Before They Hit
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
