Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Can This 14% Yielder Finally Afford Its Dividend?

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Can This 14% Yielder Finally Afford Its Dividend?

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Marc Lichtenfeld

AGNC Investment Corp. (Nasdaq: AGNC) is popular with income investors because of its fat 14.4% dividend yield. The company is a real estate investment trust that invests in pools of mortgages that are backed by government-sponsored organizations like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

I covered the stock twice in 2024, giving it an "F" rating both times.

In January 2024, I wrote that it had "about as bad a dividend history as I've seen" and said the dividend was "at great risk of being cut."

Then, in November, I called the dividend "extremely unsafe and a strong candidate for a cut."

At the time, AGNC was coming off of a year with negative net interest income (NII), the measure of cash flow that we use for mortgage REITs. It was expected to post another negative number in 2024.

Instead, the company generated $18 million in positive net interest income. However, it paid out $1.2 billion in dividends.

That's like if you made $18 and gave your buddy $1,200. You might be a hell of a friend, but it's not smart or sustainable.

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This year, net interest income should be much improved at over $600 million, but dividends paid are expected to be more than double that figure at over $1.3 billion.

Chart: AGNC Investment Corp. (Nasdaq: AGNC)
View larger image
 

AGNC has slashed the dividend three times over the past 10 years. The last one was in April 2020, right as the pandemic was kicking in. The $0.12 per share monthly payout that was established then has remained the same since. That track record shows us that management is willing to slash the dividend when necessary - and it certainly seems necessary now.

With three recent dividend cuts and an expected dividend payout that is still miles above the amount of net interest income the company generates, AGNC's dividend remains very unsafe.

Dividend Safety Rating: F

You've continued to send in some great requests, so I'm going to let you decide which stock I evaluate in next week's Safety Net.

Your choices are...

  • UPS (NYSE: UPS), the household-name shipping company with a 7.8% yield
  • MPLX (NYSE: MPLX), a midstream energy company with a 7.7% yield
  • B&G Foods (NYSE: BGS), which owns popular brands like Crisco, Green Giant, and Cinnamon Toast Crunch and pays a 17% yield.

Be sure to check back next week to see if your stock won - and if you have another stock you'd like me to evaluate in the future, feel free to post it in the comments after you vote.

UPS
MPLX
B&G Foods
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