While retail panicked and sold, hedge funds managing billions were doing the opposite—accumulating their highest-conviction altcoin plays at discount prices.
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The Smart Investor's Guide to Overheated Volatility
Posted On Mar 04, 2026 by Ian Cooper
Keep an eye on the stretched CBOE Volatility Index (CBOE: VIX). At 26.33, the VIX is now challenging October 2025 trade war highs. However, this time, it’s uncertainty about the joint United States and Israel military campaign against Iran that is driving volatility higher.
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For one, the conflict appears to be widening. Drones hit the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. The State Department ordered evacuations at facilities in Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan. Hezbollah attacked Tel Aviv. And there are concerns about how long Gulf states can keep themselves safe from Iranian attacks. Plus, President Trump just said the conflict could continue for another four weeks, which raises uncertainty, which markets hate.
In addition, "Market anxiety ratcheted higher overnight amid concerns that a decapitated and leaderless Iranian government and military will execute a prolonged retaliatory response aimed at sowing chaos throughout the region by targeting key economic and energy infrastructure for weeks to come," said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge, as quoted by CNBC.
Until there's clarity, markets could slip even more. Except for oil, which could easily gush higher.
Eventually, the Situation Will Cool Off
This too will pass. It’s easy for investors to say, but harder to internalize in volatile markets. However, right now, even though tensions are sky-high, the VIX is telling us that fear is too hot. And when the temperature goes down in the Middle East, we’ll be offered an opportunity on the short side of volatility.
In fact, if you look at the VIX dating back to early 2022, you can see that with every spike, RSI, MACD and Williams' %R tell us when the VIX is likely to pivot lower. We saw that happen in April 2025, December 2024, August 2024, April 2024, October 2023, March 2023, October 2022, September 2022, and also in May 2022. Each time the VIX peaked with those three indicators, buying calls on the DIAs, QQQs and the SPY typically paid off well.
One of the best ways to trade an overheated fear gauge is by jumping into inverse VIX ETFs, which move higher when the VIX moves lower.
Take Advantage of Volatility With These ETFs
Here are two of the top ETFs to consider when the VIX moves lower:
The ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (BATS: SVXY) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one-half the inverse (-0.5x) of the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, as noted by ProShares.com.
Specifically, the fund tends to profit from decreases in the expected volatility of the S&P 500, as measured by the prices of VIX futures contracts. The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index has historically been less volatile than the VIX but significantly more volatile than the S&P 500. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.95%.
Another option is the -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (BATS: SVIX), which is an inverse VIX-linked ETF that seeks to provide daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond generally to the Short VIX Futures Index, as noted by VolatilityShares.com.
Simply put, as the VIX drops, the SVIX ETF rises. The inverse is also true. That’s why the SVIX is down 13.4% in the 30 days ending March 3.
Make Volatility Your Friend
Right now, the headlines are full of doom and gloom. Geopolitical tensions are rising with uncertainty, oil is reacting by gushing higher on fear of what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz, and the VIX is elevated. That combination naturally makes investors uneasy.
But seasoned investors know something important: volatility is emotional. It spikes when uncertainty rises — and it falls when clarity returns. It doesn't stay elevated forever.
When volatility stops rising on bad news, that's often the first sign that panic is burning out.
If the VIX begins to roll over, history suggests markets may stabilize and potentially rebound.
That's when some of the greatest opportunities tend to appear — not when fear is building, but when it starts to fade. For now, patience matters. Let the fear spike. Let the technical signals develop. And be ready to act when conditions begin to normalize.
As Warren Buffett has said, "A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy." Or, as we learned from Baron Rothschild, "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." His family is now worth $400 billion because of that, by the way.
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They've banned exports of germanium, gallium, and antimony to the U.S. — minerals that are critical to AI chips, missile systems, EVs, and America's tech backbone.
Now they're threatening to shut off rare earths entirely — a move that could cripple the U.S. energy grid, military supply chain, and semiconductor sector overnight.
This is full-blown economic warfare.
And President Trump just fired back with a $100 trillion counterattack.
Through Executive Order 14241, Trump has:
Unlocked 640 million acres of federal land
Declared lithium, copper, uranium, and gold national security assets
Activated the Defense Production Act
And fast-tracked just 10 elite mineral projects for full federal support...
Brian Hicks Founder and President, Angel Investment Research
P.S. This isn't just a mining boom — it's a mineral war. The last time something like this happened, China seized control of global supply chains. This time, Trump is fighting back — and these four U.S. stocks are on the front lines. Make your move before Wall Street does. Click here for the details now.
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Broadcom Stock Surges After Blowout Q1 Earnings — Can It Hold the Gains?
Posted On Mar 05, 2026 by Chris Markoch
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO)delivered a blockbuster first quarter, sending shares up nearly 5% in after-hours trading on March 4, 2026. The semiconductor and infrastructure software giant crushed expectations on virtually every meaningful metric, powered by an AI semiconductor business that is growing at a staggering pace.
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The question now is whether the euphoria will hold when the market opens on March 5, or whether AVGO will follow a pattern that has become all too familiar with AI-related stocks this earnings season.
A Quarter That Was Hard to Argue With
Broadcom reported first-quarter fiscal year 2026 revenue of $19.31 billion, a 29% increase from the $14.92 billion the company posted in the same quarter a year ago. Net income on a GAAP basis came in at $7.35 billion, or $1.50 per diluted share, representing a 34% year-over-year improvement. On a non-GAAP basis, the measure most closely watched by Wall Street, Broadcom earned $2.05 per diluted share, up 28% from the prior year period.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $13.13 billion, or 68% of revenue, up 30% from a year ago. Free cash flow was $8.01 billion, representing 41% of revenue. For a company of Broadcom’s scale, these numbers are a statement about operational discipline. CEO Hock Tan and CFO Kirsten Spears have built a machine that converts revenue into cash at a rate that stands out among technology companies.
The AI Engine Is Just Getting Started
The headline number buried inside the quarter was AI semiconductor revenue of $8.4 billion. That was up 106% year-over-year (YoY) and came in above the company’s own forecast. That's not a rounding error. It's a doubling of AI revenue in a single year, driven by robust demand for custom AI accelerators and AI networking products.
Broadcom’s semiconductor solutions segment, which includes its AI chip business, generated $12.52 billion in revenue during the quarter, up 52% year-over-year. Infrastructure software, which includes the VMware business Broadcom acquired in 2023, contributed $6.80 billion, up just 1% from the prior year. The story here is unmistakably about semiconductors — and specifically about AI.
What makes this particularly compelling for long-term investors is where management says things are heading. Hock Tan guided for AI semiconductor revenue of $10.7 billion in the second quarter alone. If that comes to pass, Broadcom’s AI business will have grown from a meaningful contributor to an absolute cornerstone of the company’s identity in the span of just a few quarters.
Guidance That Demands Attention
Second quarter revenue guidance of approximately $22.0 billion would represent 47% growth year-over-year — a significant acceleration from the 29% the company just reported. Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to remain at 68% of projected revenue, suggesting that Broadcom is not buying growth by sacrificing profitability. This is the kind of guidance that tends to make analysts reassess their price targets for a company.
The company also announced a new $10 billion share repurchase program authorized through December 31, 2026, and reaffirmed its quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share, payable March 31, 2026. During the first quarter, Broadcom returned $10.9 billion to shareholders through $3.1 billion in cash dividends and $7.8 billion in stock repurchases. A company generating $8 billion in free cash flow per quarter and returning nearly $11 billion to shareholders in the same period is not just a growth story — it is increasingly a capital return story as well.
Can the After-Hours Pop Hold?
This is where the picture gets more complicated. Looking at the chart, AVGO shares closed Wednesday at $317.53, already sitting well below the 50-day simple moving average of $334.69. The stock has been in a downtrend since peaking near $400 late last year, and the RSI of 41.82 suggests the stock has been in oversold territory, but has not yet found a decisive floor.
The after-hours pop to roughly $332 puts the stock right back at that 50-day moving average. That's exactly the kind of technical resistance level that can turn a gap-up open into a “sell the news” reversal. We've seen this movie before. The reaction to NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) earnings has been instructive. That is enormous beats, euphoric after-hours moves fueled by high-speed algorithmic trading programs. But in the case of NVDA stock, those gains disappeared once the regular trading session began.
It is not hard to construct the bear case for the next 24 hours. Broadcom is not cheap on any traditional valuation metric. The VMware integration, while proceeding well, still leaves infrastructure software growth at just 1%. That's a reminder that not all parts of this business are firing equally. And the broader market tape, with tariff uncertainty and macro headwinds weighing on sentiment, is not exactly a tailwind for high-multiple tech names.
Still, the bulls have plenty of ammunition. A 47% revenue growth guide is not something the market ignores. If institutional buyers decide this quarter represents a re-rating event. That is, a moment where the consensus AI revenue trajectory gets revised meaningfully higher. In that scenario, AVGO stock could sustain and extend its gains through the regular session and beyond.
The Long-Term Case Remains Intact
Whether AVGO holds its gains on Thursday or gives some back, the long-term investment thesis around Broadcom deserves to be taken seriously. The company sits at an increasingly critical intersection of custom silicon and AI infrastructure, designing the kinds of chips that hyperscalers need to run their AI workloads at scale. Memory and high-bandwidth interconnects — areas where Broadcom’s networking expertise is particularly relevant — are going to be essential bottlenecks in AI infrastructure for years to come.
At $317 before earnings, the market was pricing in considerable skepticism. The results announced tonight suggest that skepticism may have been overdone. Whether you are a momentum trader watching that 50-day moving average or a long-term investor building a position around the AI infrastructure thesis, Broadcom just gave you a lot to work with.
The quarter was about as clean as they come. The story is getting bigger, not smaller. How the stock trades tomorrow will say more about the market’s mood than about Broadcom’s business.
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