Brazil is the second-largest beef producing country and the largest beef exporting country in the world. Post expects decreased slaughter in 2026, due to the start of the reversion of the cattle cycle. Producers are likely to begin holding cattle from the market, driving calf prices upwards. Solid beef exports are forecasted for 2026, following record exports in 2025. Domestic consumption is forecast to slightly decrease, as producers will prioritize exports, driven by strong external demand, devalued local currency, and challenges faced by foreign competitors. The swine industry is expected to increase in both production and slaughter in 2026. As a result, Post forecasts increased pork production and domestic consumption, as well as record exports in 2026.
This report is intended to supplement the FAS U.S. Mission to the EU's Food and Agricultural Import Regulations and Standards (FAIRS) Certificate report with Italy-specific information. The U.S. export certification requirements for most products of animal and plant origin destined for the EU and Italy have been harmonized. The few products not yet harmonized are subject to Italian regulations which can be found in this report.
FAS/Tokyo projects Japan's beef and pork sectors to remain stable in 2026. Cattle inventory and beef production face marginal decreases due to declining breeding cow numbers, though heavier wagyu cattle will allow for maintaining production levels. Beef consumption remains flat as retail sales decline from consumers shifting to cheaper proteins, but are offset by record tourist arrivals that increase demand in the food service sector. Beef imports remain unchanged, with potential U.S. market share gains as Australian prices are near parity with U.S. prices. Pork production, consumption, and imports also hold steady. High costs from the continuing weak yen and elevated feed prices discourage expansion. Despite Spain's ASF-related import suspension affecting 15 percent of imports, Japan will seek to diversify sourcing while maintaining stable total volumes.
U.S. products arriving to Kenya now face mandatory conformity inspection on arrival to port. The Kenyan Bureau of Standards (KEBS) shifted U.S.-origin products from pre-shipment inspection to destination inspection following the expiration of their Pre-Export Verification of Conformity (PVoC) contract with the Société Générale de Surveillance (SGS). As of February 9, 2026, SGS no longer serves as KEBS's inspection agent for U.S. exports, leaving those functions to KEBS inspectors . With the change, KEBS also updated the inspection fee to 0.6 percent of the customs value (minimum $300, maximum $3,500). This change alters established compliance procedures for U.S. exporters and is likely to increase clearance times, documentation requirements, and port-related costs. The change was not notified to the World Trade Organization.
Malaysia's Budget 2026 was tabled on October 10, 2025, in the Malaysian Parliament against a backdrop of moderate economic growth, stable inflation, and renewed attention on food security and supply chain resilience. For 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (KPKM) received RM6.87 billion / USD1.76 billion, an increase of seven percent from the RM6.42 billion / USD1.64 billion allocated for 2025. KPKM allocated RM2.62 billion / USD671 million for agricultural subsidies and incentives in 2026, and paddy growers will receive the largest share of this amount. Together, these programs position the paddy sector as the single largest beneficiary within KPKM's budget due to its role in national food security.
In 2025, Taiwan imported US$4.3 billion agricultural and related products from the US, which accounted for 23.7 percent of the island's total import value. Its food processing industry produced $32.9 billion of processed food and beverages, among which the strongest subsectors are animal feed, butchery, meat processing, baked goods, and non-alcoholic beverages. Consumers in the super-aged market are increasingly attracted to healthy and safe products with added nutritional benefits, as well as convenient, single portion products to better suit the changing family structure.
Taiwan operates a risk-based, three-tier inspection system for imported agricultural products, with intensity levels ranging from two to ten percent random sampling at the standard level to 100 percent inspection at the batch-by-batch level. A single shipment failure triggers escalation to enhanced inspection (20-50 percent selection rate), while a second failure results in 100 percent batch-by-batch inspection. Inspection procedures differ between food-grade products regulated by the Taiwan Food and Drug Administration and feed-grade products regulated by the Ministry of Agriculture. Testing methods are primarily adopted from U.S. FDA, USDA, and other international agencies. Failed shipments may be returned, destroyed, or in some cases undergo sequential container inspection to separate compliant from non-compliant products. Repeated failures trigger escalating consequences, including importer-level suspensions and potential country-level import suspensions affecting all U.S. exporters of that product type.
Post estimates chicken meat production and exports will increase in 2026 following the Ukrainian poultry industry's adaptation to war-related production issues. Post estimates decreased chicken meat production and exports for 2025 on industry-reported production and supply problems. Production declines affected Europe's largest poultry producer, MHP SE, headquartered in Ukraine, as well as smaller producers targeting domestic markets. Ukraine's exports to the European Union (EU) will remain robust but will be limited to the new tariff-rate quota negotiated in fall 2025. Growing chicken meat exports to the United Kingdom will continue, and it may surpass the Netherlands as Ukraine's largest single country export market. EU markets will also remain export destinations of choice due to geographical proximity and premium prices. The Russia-Ukraine war remains the major production and trade risk in 2026.
