IPO of the Decade? What Elon's $17 Billion SpaceX Move Means [sponsor]
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Dear Reader, |
Elon Musk made a $17 billion move that could change the future of global communications forever. |
His company SpaceX struck a deal to acquire wireless spectrum from EchoStar… the missing piece that allows Starlink satellites to act as "cell towers in space." |
With this deal, Starlink can now expand its capacity by more than 100x and begin eliminating mobile dead zones around the world. |
The news sent shares of EchoStar surging 19%... but the biggest gains from this deal could still be on the horizon… |
Because this could prove a key step in SpaceX finally filing its IPO paperwork. |
Legendary tech investor Jeff Brown has been following this story for months… |
He believes the coming IPO could be the biggest of the decade… and he's showing everyday investors how they can claim a stake right now with as little as $500. |
Click here to see the details before this story hits the front page of The Wall Street Journal. |
Regards, |
Lindsey Hough
Managing Director, Brownstone Research |
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FEATURED ARTICLE |
Inside the SpaceX IPO Opportunity Wall Street Is Watching Closely |
If you're hunting for IPO upside, SpaceX is the biggest "if/when" story on the board right now.The IPO "inside SpaceX" isn't just one company. It's a stack of businesses with very different economics — and different catalysts. |
Over the past few days, the reporting has gotten unusually specific on three things: |
How big the numbers are How real the 2026 IPO window is What growth engines bankers believe justify a valuation that could exceed $1T
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Let's unpack it Zacks/Agora-style: what the IPO could look like, what drives the valuation, what could derail it, and where the "hidden IPO opportunities" actually live within SpaceX. |
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The newest hard numbers: profits, revenue, and the $1.5T headline |
A Reuters report published today cited sources saying SpaceX generated about $8 billion in profit in 2025 on $15–$16 billion in revenue. |
That's already "large-cap profitable" territory — and it's why banks are floating IPO raise estimates north of $50B at a valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion, with timing discussed around mid-June 2026 (notably, tied to Elon Musk's 55th birthday in June). |
Whether that exact date happens or slides, the key point is: the market is now pricing this like a serious, cash-generating platform — not a science project. |
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Where the IPO opportunity really lives: "SpaceX is not one business" |
When investors say "SpaceX," they usually picture rockets. Bankers and growth analysts see four engines: |
1) Starlink: the recurring revenue machine (and the main reason IPO bankers are salivating) |
Sources cited by Reuters say roughly 50% to 80% of SpaceX revenue is coming from Starlink. |
Concrete scale signals: |
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That matters because it changes the narrative from "launch cadence" to "subscriber economics," which public markets understand and reward. |
Starlink is also where new monetization layers are forming: |
Direct-to-device ambitions (more on that below) More enterprise + government capacity Expansion into new regions and verticals
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This is why, even if the parent company IPOs, many investors still frame the deal as:
"You're buying Starlink with rockets attached." |
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2) Starshield: the higher-margin government layer |
In the same Reuters reporting thread, Starlink's government and military contracts — commonly associated with Starshield — are described as helping finance Starship development. |
Why investors care: |
Government revenue can be stickier It can be less price-sensitive than consumer broadband It can produce a higher-confidence backlog narrative
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Even if margins aren't disclosed like a public company yet, this line of business is the kind Wall Street tends to reward with a higher multiple when it's visible. |
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3) Starship: the moonshot that can change unit economics for space (and create entirely new markets) |
This is the biggest "option" embedded in SpaceX. |
Starship isn't just a better rocket — it's supposed to be a cost curve shift. If Starship becomes reliable at high cadence, it potentially unlocks: |
cheaper deployment of satellites (including Starlink capacity expansion) cheaper government launches entirely new categories (on-orbit infrastructure)
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The Reuters piece notes Musk expects Starship to begin launching payloads this year (per the reporting context). |
Investor translation:
If Starship's operational cadence and payload success improve, it strengthens the case that SpaceX is not only profitable now — it can scale profitably later. |
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4) "SpaceX + AI": the wild card that could reshape the IPO structure |
This is where the story gets spicy — and also where risk creeps in. |
Reuters reports SpaceX is in discussions to potentially merge with xAI ahead of the planned public offering, and that xAI has been valued around $230B after a recent raise. |
Why this matters to the IPO opportunity: |
A merger could change what public investors are buying It could alter risk profile, disclosures, governance, and narrative It could also create a "one-stop Musk platform" story that some investors love — and others will discount heavily
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And there's another newly reported data point: Reuters says Starlink updated its privacy policy to allow customer data to be used for AI training unless users opt out — a move reported in the context of IPO planning and broader AI ambitions. |
Investor translation:
This could either be framed as "data advantage + product improvement," or it could invite scrutiny. In public markets, scrutiny often means multiple compression. |
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The IPO timeline: what we know vs what we don't |
What's reasonably supported by current reporting: |
SpaceX is being discussed as a 2026 IPO candidate, with mid-June specifically mentioned in recent coverage. The company is reportedly lining up major banks for roles (recent reports have named Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley).
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What we do not have (and should not pretend we do): |
an SEC filing confirmed IPO structure (parent company vs Starlink carve-out vs combined entity) final valuation or share count confirmed exchange timing
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So the honest stance is: the window is being prepared, not guaranteed. |
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The catalysts that could drive "IPO-style upside" (even before an IPO) |
If you're trying to understand why bankers can even say "$1T+," these are the catalysts that matter most: |
Catalyst A: Starlink scale + pricing power |
Subscriber growth (already at 9M+) ARPU stability + enterprise mix New product layers (mobility, maritime, aviation, direct-to-device)
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If Starlink continues to look like a global telco/platform, the IPO valuation case strengthens. |
Catalyst B: Direct-to-device becomes real |
Reuters reported SpaceX recently acquired $19B in wireless spectrum rights from EchoStar to expand into the direct-to-device market. |
That's not "optional." That's a massive capital decision intended to open a new revenue lane. |
Catalyst C: Starship reliability + cadence |
This is the "long-dated call option" inside the company. If the year brings tangible progress (more successful payload missions, higher cadence), the market's confidence in forward economics increases. |
Catalyst D: Government / defense growth |
If Starshield continues expanding, it can improve revenue visibility — and Wall Street tends to pay up for that kind of contract-driven stability. |
Catalyst E: A clean IPO narrative (no messy corporate mashups) |
If the xAI merger talk fades and the IPO story stays simple — "Starlink + launches + Starship option" — it becomes easier for mainstream institutions to underwrite. |
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What could go wrong: the bear case public investors will care about |
This is where the "Cheap Investor" mindset keeps you from getting hypnotized by the rocket launches. |
Valuation risk:
A $1.5T valuation implies enormous expectations. If revenue is $15–$16B and profit ~$8B (per sources), investors will debate whether those numbers are sustainable and scalable at public-company scrutiny. Regulatory and political risk:
Starlink is effectively telecom infrastructure. That means regulatory friction, privacy scrutiny (especially with AI training policy changes), and geopolitical risk. Execution risk on Starship:
The company can be profitable now and still get punished if the "future option" stumbles, because that future option is baked into valuations. Complexity creep (mergers and empire-building):
Public markets discount complexity. A SpaceX+xAI narrative could expand the story — or muddy it and invite skepticism.
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The practical question: "How do investors get exposure before an IPO?" |
This is where I'll be careful and factual. |
If there is no IPO yet, investors typically look at: |
Public suppliers/beneficiaries (space components, telecom equipment, satellite manufacturing, ground infrastructure) Public comps (satellite operators, aerospace primes, connectivity providers) Private-market access vehicles (varies by investor eligibility, fees, and liquidity)
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I'm not going to claim a "regular brokerage account" gets you SpaceX pre-IPO directly — for most investors, it doesn't. The more realistic "public-market" approach is picks-and-shovels exposure until an actual filing exists. |
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Bottom line: the "IPO opportunity inside SpaceX" is Starlink + optionality |
If the latest reporting is even directionally correct, SpaceX is nearing the kind of moment where: |
profitability is real, recurring revenue is dominant, and the next growth legs (direct-to-device, government expansion, Starship cadence) are credible enough for public markets to underwrite.
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But the most important takeaway for a profit-driven reader is simple: |
The closer an IPO gets, the less "cheap" it usually becomes.
Your edge isn't predicting the exact date — it's understanding which engine drives value and which catalyst moves the story next. |
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. |
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