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Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Why the 2026 midterm environment is looking different from 2018

Plus, Day 7 of the shutdown
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From the Politics Desk

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

In today's edition, Steve Kornacki digs into why a blue wave doesn't appear to be materializing (yet) for Democrats in next year's midterm elections. Plus, the government shutdown stretches into a 7th day. 

 

— Adam Wollner

 

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Have a question for the NBC News Politics Desk about the government shutdown, the Trump administration's deployment of National Guard troops, or the November elections?


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The signs of a blue wave aren't there like they were in Trump's first term

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

The blue wave that interrupted President Donald Trump's first term could be seen coming from far away. This time around, the signs are not so clear.

 

By the fall of 2017, Trump's first year in office, Democrats had opened a sizable advantage in the generic congressional ballot. On this day in 2017, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, the Democratic lead was 7.8 points. It's a margin that would more or less hold over the ensuing year, culminating in a 40-seat gain in the 2018 midterms that gave Democrats control of the House.

 

Today, by contrast, the RCP average has Democrats up by only 3 points in the generic ballot. This comes even as Trump's overall job approval rating sits in the low- to mid-40s – similar to his first term – and as he continues to accrue negative ratings for his handling of the economy and inflation.

 

Views of Trump's opposition, though, look very different today than they did eight years ago. In the run-up to the 2018 midterms, Democrats fared consistently – and significantly – better than the Republicans on party image. This time around, it's a different story.

 
 

Earlier this year, Democrats registered their lowest positive rating in the history of our NBC News poll, which dates back more than three decades. Similar findings have emerged in other surveys.

 

A significant factor is self-identified Democrats expressing unfavorable views of their own party. This internal frustration – combined with other data that shows these voters want a more confrontational posture from their party's leaders – helps explain why Democrats in Washington have embraced a government shutdown.

 

This also raises the question of what other new tactical or ideological steps Democratic leaders may take to appease their base – and whether the wider electorate will be receptive to them. In Trump's first term, independents took a less negative view of Democrats than Republicans. Now, it's more of a wash.

 

Of course, to win back the House next year, Democrats don't need a wave; a net gain of just three seats will do the trick. But Republicans may end up effectively raising that number to the high single digits through mid-decade redistricting efforts. 

 

Typically, the opposition party can count on a midterm boost by serving as the protest vehicle for whatever dissatisfaction voters want to express with the White House. But in today's atmosphere of intense polarization, there may be some voters who want to express their displeasure with the opposition party, too.

 

Do you have a news tip for our politics team? Tell us discreetly.

 

Shutdown, Day 7: Trump dials up the pressure as MTG breaks with her party on Obamacare

 

The White House raised the stakes of the government shutdown as it entered its seventh day with a draft memo arguing that furloughed federal workers are not entitled to back pay, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told NBC News.

 

The memo, first reported by Axios, comes despite the Office of Personnel Management's own September guidance, which said federal workers will receive retroactive pay after the shutdown lifts.

 

The memo also clashes with a 2019 law that requires back pay for federal workers. The law, called the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019, says all federal employees, whether furloughed or deemed essential and working without pay, must receive back pay after a shutdown ends.

 

Asked about the White House's position on back pay, President Donald Trump told reporters, "I would say it depends on who we're talking about." Trump also likened the shutdown to a "kamikaze attack" by Democrats.

 

The idea of denying back pay prompted some intraparty backlash, with Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., calling it a "horrible message" and a "bad strategy."

 

Speaking of GOP divisions: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., broke with her party by calling for action on expiring Obamacare subsidies to avoid premium hikes, Sahil Kapur reports. 

 

In a long post on X, Greene, the far-right MAGA firebrand, made it clear she was not in Congress when the 2010 law passed.

 

"Let's just say as nicely as possible, I'm not a fan," she wrote. "But I'm going to go against everyone on this issue because when the tax credits expire this year my own adult children's insurance premiums for 2026 are going to DOUBLE, along with all the wonderful families and hard-working people in my district."

 

"Not a single Republican in leadership talked to us about this or has given us a plan to help Americans deal with their health insurance premiums DOUBLING!!!" Greene added.

 

Asked by our colleague Ryan Nobles about Greene's comments, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said she doesn't sit on the committees of jurisdiction and "she's probably not read in on some of that." He added that "everybody's entitled to their opinion," but "not everyone knows everything."

 

At the airport: Flight delays across the U.S. stretched into a second day as the Federal Aviation Administration braced for more airport staffing shortages amid the shutdown, Matt Lavietes and Corky Siemaszko write. 

 

Maya Rosenberg and Jay Blackman also note that federal funding for air travel in rural areas will run out Sunday if the shutdown continues. 


In the states: Some governors are drawing on state funds to keep popular national parks open for tourists, Raquel Coronell Uribe reports. 

 
 

πŸ—ž️ Today's other top stories

⚖️ SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court appeared poised to back a free speech challenge to a Colorado law that bans conversion therapy aimed at young people questioning their sexual orientations or gender identities in a case likely to have national implications. Read more →

 

πŸͺ‘ On the hot seat: Attorney General Pam Bondi faced questions from senators about National Guard deployments and immigrant arrests in U.S. cities, the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey, and files related to Jeffrey Epstein. Read more →

 

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Oh, Canada: Trump said there's "mutual love" but "natural conflict" between the U.S. and Canada as he met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House. Read more →

 

πŸ“± Sprint to November: In the final weeks of the Virginia governor's race, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears is attempting to tie Democrat Abigail Spanberger to the uproar over the violent texts that surfaced from the Democratic nominee for attorney general in the state. Read more →


πŸ—³️ If it's Tuesday: Voters are heading to the polls for a special primary election to fill former Rep. Mark Green's seat in Tennessee's deep-red 7th District. Trump stepped in at the last minute with an endorsement of Matt Van Epps, the former commissioner of the state Department of General Services. Read more →

 

➡️ Explainer: Trump suggested numerous times this week that he could invoke the sweeping presidential powers granted by the Insurrection Act "if necessary." Here's what that is →

 

That's all from the Politics Desk for now. Thanks to Owen Auston-Babcock for helping compile today's newsletter. 

 

If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.

 

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Forget PLTR – here’s an overlooked AI player ready to soar

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Hey, Steve here:

Palantir isn’t some flash-in-the-pan company. 

They build bleeding-edge software, support defense contracts, and now wear the crown as one of Wall Street’s favorite AI plays.

But at current prices?

It’s trading at a valuation that challenges the likes of Lockheed Martin – a literal weapons manufacturer and defense behemoth with decades of government contracts under its belt.

Is Palantir growing? Yes. Are margins solid? Sure.

But is it Lockheed Martin? The sniff test says no.

Which brings me to a more reasonable AI opportunity the market hasn’t fully priced in yet…

 

How Insiders Legally “Print Money”

SEC Rule 10b5-1 lets company insiders trade their own stock.

Of course they know when good news is coming… 

Earnings blowout? FDA approval? 

Yeah, they’ve got the inside scoop.

But this one little filing tells you EXACTLY what they’re doing.

It’s public. It’s legal. And it’s the closest thing to a crystal ball I’ve ever seen.

Click here and I’ll show you how to use it before the next big move.

In Case You Missed It:

  • Ready for Tesla’s “iPhone moment”?
  • NVDA & PLTR could be toast – here’s 3 “invisible” alternatives
  • The next big AI trade is NOT what you think…

To your success,
Steve Place

New here? To quickly orient you… 
We target stocks from a couple different vantage points. 
First — by following a group of people I like to call “the best traders you’ve never heard of. Spoiler… they’re corporate insiders, and the same loophole that allows them to buy and sell their own stocks also allows us to follow their moves… often for explosive profits. Learn all about it right here.

ABOUT US: At Global Profit Systems International LLC, we hold the conviction that financial literacy and freedom should be accessible to everyone, not just the seasoned investors. Our mission is to democratize the world of investing through comprehensive educational services and products. We simplify trading with our online platform, featuring an extensive collection of trading strategies designed to empower you at the start of your investment journey. We provide interactive webinars and training sessions because we are passionate about teaching. Regardless of the market opportunity, we foster a vibrant community of traders with shared interests, dedicated to dissecting daily market news together.
DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Global Profit Systems International are for your informational purposes only. Neither Global Profit Systems International nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk.
DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Global Profit Systems International is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions.  Please visit https://www.markettradersdaily.com/tos/ for our full Terms and Conditions.

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Winter Garden 34787, FL.

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How 26 Minutes Changed the Trade

Not every trade is what it appears. ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  


They stack the deck. We learned how to beat it.

After 18 months of live testing I’ve got the passcode that threads tight loss caps and time windows.

No hacks. No gray areas. 

Just a repeatable plan that prevents violations and gets you approved.

Join me Thu, Oct 9 — leave with the exact rules to pass.

Claim your seat now 👉 [Claim Your Seat Now]


Don here...

6:50 am looked like a textbook entry.

If you took it, markets steamrolled you.

So, what changed by 7:16 am that Tony Rago said NOW was the time to jump on?

One word - Context.

You see, the ES carved out a perfect W-pattern on the weekly pivot early today.

The first short entry at 6:50 am looked perfect: a lower high forming, clear resistance. 

That entry ran traders over. It came right back inside the range and shook everyone out.

The REAL entry was 7:16 am…AFTER the lower low confirmed…after the clean close back below the opening range. 

That's when the probability shifted.

In today's free session replay, you'll discover:

  • Why the ES leads the entire market like a compass pointing true north. This morning the ES carved out a perfect textbook pattern on the weekly pivot while NQ struggled to follow. But eventually NQ had no choice. Tony explains why watching ES behavior gives you the edge before moves happen. The volume data proves it. ES traded 1.1 million contracts versus 470,000 in NQ. Almost three times the participation. That's where the big money operates.
  • The divergence pattern that telegraphed the morning selloff before it accelerated. While tech was holding relatively flat, ES was already breaking down. The advanced decline line confirmed broad selling was happening across the S&P 500 universe. Tony walks through exactly how to read this divergence so you're positioned before the cascade starts. This is how professionals see moves coming while retail traders are still hoping for bounces.
  • Why a half percent down day felt like the market would fall out of bed. On the daily chart it looks like nothing. Barely breached yesterday's low. But in real time it felt heavy and relentless. Tony explains the psychology of why markets feel different at support levels versus resistance. The weekly pivot at 6750 held the selloff. That level became a magnet. Price gravitated to it, paused, and held. Understanding these inflection points is what separates reading tape from guessing.
  • The opening range framework that catches big moves without getting chopped up. The first attempt to short resistance at 6:50am ran traders over. But the patient entry at 7:16am after the clean break gave you 40 handles to weekly open and yesterday's low. Tony breaks down why you cannot just jump on the first test. You wait for confirmation. You let the impatient traders get stopped out first. Then you enter with probability on your side.
  • Why dip buyers kept getting denied all session despite the relentless market. Reflexive bounces kept appearing. Price would pop 10-15 handles and traders would rush in. Then it would fail immediately. Tony explains what this price action tells you about conviction. The big money wasn't buying this dip. They were legging in for scalps only. When that's happening, you know the path of least resistance is still down.

Tony caught the morning move for solid profit. Then spent the afternoon admitting he was "playing in traffic" trying to catch the next leg. Took multiple small losses. Ended up 4.5 handles feeling lucky.

That's the reality of trading. You take your edge when probability is high. You manage risk when the tape turns choppy. You don't force trades that aren't there.

The patterns Tony showed this morning repeat constantly. The ES leading. The opening range providing structure. Support levels becoming magnets.

He's been watching these patterns for 13 years. They don't change. The market keeps doing the same thing over and over again.

You just need to know where to look.

→ Watch Tony's complete session to see how ES drives market direction and why the opening range framework catches moves others miss

To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

 

Helping You Become a Better Trader...it’s What We Do. Experience TheoTrade® Today!

Whether you are a beginning, intermediate, or active trader, you will find a treasure chest of valuable trading education resources, both free and paid, that will help take your trading to the next level. We are committed to helping you become the best trader you can be.

 
Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade.com  or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA |SIPC |NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment.Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Why individuals at top Wall Street institutions listen to this ONE man...

Wednesday is your rare opportunity to hear from a market legend
Trade of the Day ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ 
Trade of the Day Logo

Why Individuals at Top Wall Street Institutions Listen to This ONE Man...

Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Karim Rahemtulla

Dear Reader,

Look at this list carefully:

  • Merrill Lynch...
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  • Blackrock...
  • Morgan Stanley...
  • Royal Bank of Canada...
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  • TD Ameritrade...
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  • Truist Bank...
  • Wells Fargo...
  • State Street Global Advisors...
  • Citibank...
  • Individuals at institutions across Wall Street who have turned to legendary market analyst JC Parets' research and insights over the past few years...

And on Wednesday, October 8th @ 2 PM ET he's hosting an Emergency Zero Hour Briefing LIVE to share a MASSIVE trading opportunity for the first time publicly.

It all stems from a government-mandated event that he calls the "Pivot Point"...

And 99.9% of Americans will foolishly miss out on targeting gains as much as 2,000% within just weeks.

If you would have listened to him when he first warned about this back in May...

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And seeing as many as 14 opportunities to AT LEAST double your money.

Don't be one of them who ignores this warning...

>>> CLICK HERE TO CONFIRM YOUR FREE SPOT  <<<

Yours in smart speculation,

Karim Rahemtulla Signature

Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician
Monument Traders Alliance

 

Monument Traders Alliance

Monument Traders Alliance, LLC

 

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😲 Wall Street blindsided by a $1 stock?

The loophole they don’t want exposed ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  

How this outsider cracked the code ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  

Logo: Schaeffer's Investment Research


A message from Millionaire Publishing

 

Most people have never heard of Tim Sykes.

But in the trading world, he’s famous for one thing:


Turning a $12,415 starting stake into $1.65 million.


He didn’t do it by trading Apple, Tesla, or Bitcoin.


Instead, he found a way to target obscure “Supernova” stocks Wall Street avoids.


The results?

  • A stock at $1.50 that ran to $98.40 in a week
  • Another that exploded from $6 to $35 before lunchtime
  • One that surged 5x in a single morning


Of course past performance can’t guarantee future gains, and moves like this are not typical… 


But Tim recorded a 9-minute video walking through the exact checklist he uses to find setups like these.


Watch it here before it comes down.

 

Regards,

Millionaire Publishing


Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, timing, proper execution, dedication, and hard work.

There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk.

 

This is a paid advertisement provided to customers of Schaeffer's Investment Research. Although we have sent you this email, Schaeffer's does not necessarily endorse this product nor is it responsible for the content of this advertisement. Schaeffer's makes no guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above.

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