Monday, June 12, 2023

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VIX Reveals What To Expect

 

With a big week of numbers lining up, it is a good time to look at the indicators that can tell you what to expect moving forward. As the market looks for inflation data and another potential hike from the Feds, short term memory may prevent traders from seeing what is on the horizon.

A great place to start is the VIX. This is an indicator that measures how much volatility traders are expecting in the market in the coming months. It is often mistaken as an indicator that measures the actual volatility of the markets but that is not the case. It is actually a representation of the prices of put and call options on the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. Now it is at a low we haven't seen since before the pandemic started.

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When you look at the spike in the VIX at the pandemic, that gives you an idea of how it works. The market dropped for a matter of weeks before rebounding into a historical rally. But you can see on the chart above, that drop not only sent the VIX to record highs, it also moved it into a range that was 2-3 times the range it had been in. There is a correlation between the VIX and the broader market in that the VIX will typically go up when the market goes down.

So what do these new lows tell us about what we can expect.? Take a look at the S&P and pay attention to the period leading up to the pandemic.

With the exception of a couple pullbacks, we experienced a slow, steady climb. With Interest high and going higher, it is tough to get money for rapid growth. This means companies are forced to look to more organic ways to build their businesses. Inflation means consumers are being forced to be more conservative in their spending. It sounds over simplified, but it is what we have seen in the past. The low VIX is a sign that we are in for a grind.

If you are looking for the silver lining, the return in fixed income investments are benefiting greatly from the rising rates and offering effective ways to buoy a trading portfolio as we scan through for the big moves. Also, a lower VIX creates cheaper options making now the time to look to the powerful leverage they provide as a way to keep a trading account growing.

Keep learning and trade wisely,

John Boyer

Editor

Market Wealth Daily


See Related Articles on TradeWinsDaily.com

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This Legendary Deal Brought a GOAT to Miami

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This Legendary Deal Brings a GOAT to Miami

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Matt Clark,
Chief Research Analyst

Anyone who knows me will tell you I have a few loves in life.

One of the biggest … aside from my family … is soccer.

I’ve loved the sport since I was a kid growing up in the Midwest — where the “other” football was more prominent.

It’s great to see the sport grow over the years from random high school and college teams to a significant national league with broad media exposure.

Last week, that exposure hit a fever pitch with the “Greatest of All Time” player joining America’s ranks.

If you already know what I’m talking about, you might not think this news is investable. But, surprisingly, there’s a way to potentially profit from this development.

Today, I’ll tell you why … and show you what our Green Zone Power Ratings system says about one stock in the middle of it all.

The Messi Effect

Growing up as a fan of the global game, I dreamed of playing like Brazilian greats Pelé or Cristiano Ronaldo.

Today’s youth have a different idol, but one who’s no less talented. Many even consider him to be the world’s greatest player: Lionel Messi.

After this year’s World Cup, the Argentinian has achieved everything there is to achieve as a soccer player: league championships, European championships, player of the year and World Cup champion.

His journey for that last accolade captured the hearts of millions around the world … even here in the U.S.

Last week, his journey took another turn when he left the riches of Europe and turned down a billion-dollar deal from Saudi Arabia to play for … U.S. Major League Soccer team Inter Miami.

Messi hasn’t even suited up yet, but the impact of his generational talent was immediately clear:

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Ticket prices for MLS games skyrocketed last week to see a player from Rosario, Argentina, play here in the States.

Here in South Florida, ticket prices for Inter Miami shot up more than 1,000% in a matter of minutes.

It speaks to the impact a player the caliber of Messi has (and will have) on soccer here in the United States.

But it wasn’t easy for Inter Miami and MLS to become the epicenter of global soccer overnight…

It took one unexpected company’s involvement to land the deal…

Apple Helps Get Messi to Miami

The allure of playing for David Beckham (a soccer great in his own right and part owner of Inter Miami) likely wasn’t enough to draw a player like Messi to the U.S.

While the precise structure of his deal to play in MLS isn’t fully known, some pieces are. And one includes a publicly traded company that’s all over the news…

A piece of Messi’s deal to play in Miami includes a revenue share with Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL). This deal is on revenue generated by Apple for its MLS Season Pass subscription service. And Apple owns the exclusive rights to broadcast MLS games through its Apple TV platform.

It’s unclear what the percentage is, but it is clear what the impact of bringing Messi to the MLS had on Apple stock:

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(Click here to view larger image.)

Created in June 2023.

Despite its product announcements earlier last week, AAPL stock suffered a 1.7% drop from June 2 to June 7.

Following Messi’s announcement to play in MLS (and information leaking about his revenue share deal with the company), AAPL shot up 1.2% in less than a day.

That boost helped the Nasdaq shoot over 1% higher on Thursday (AAPL makes up 12% of the entire index).

But even with this deal, is AAPL a good buy for your portfolio?


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From our Partners at Banyan Hill Publishing.

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Green Zone Power Ratings: AAPL

To answer that question, let’s turn to our proprietary Green Zone Power Ratings system to take a deep dive into AAPL:

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(Click here to view larger image.)

AAPL Green Zone Power Rating in June 2023.

AAPL rates 64 out of 100 on our system. That means we are “Bullish” on the stock and expect it to outperform the broader market by 2X over the next 12 months.

The stock scores a 94 on our quality factor with returns on assets, equity and investment all higher than its communication equipment peers.

And, aside from its lackluster launch of new virtual reality goggles at its recent developer conference, the stock’s momentum has been solid.

AAPL’s growth is also bullish with a one-year sales growth rate of 7.8% and an earnings-per-share growth rate of 8.9%.

Though, its current price does make it slightly overvalued — its price-to-earnings ratio is 30.2 compared to its peer average of 27.7.

Bottom Line: AAPL was a solid stock even before the deal with Messi became public.

Throwing in the fact that millions of soccer fans worldwide will be clamoring to sign up for its MLS broadcast package just to watch the greatest player in the world tells me there is still room for this stock to run. (Full disclosure: I signed up for the package as soon as Messi’s announcement was verified.)

That is a strong reason to consider AAPL for your portfolio.

Stay Tuned: Dissecting the Blistering Nasdaq Rally

Tomorrow, Adam O’Dell will give you good reason to be cautious of the Nasdaq 100’s huge rally in 2023.

Adam recently proved to his 10X Stocks subscribers that the more than 100% of the Nasdaq’s gains are in the hands of the same old mega-cap tech stocks. But is that enough?

Tune in to see how each of these stocks rates under the Green Zone Power Ratings system, and why you might want to take some chips off the table.

Until then…

Safe trading,

Matt Clark signature
Matt Clark, CMSA®
Chief Research Analyst, Money & Markets


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U.S. Department of Justice Attorney Vacancies Update

The United States Department of Justice


You are subscribed to Attorney Vacancies for U.S. Department of Justice. This information has recently been updated, and is now available.

06/12/2023 06:00 AM EDT

USAO Western District of North Carolina

Charlotte, North Carolina
Announcement #: 23-NCW-12002872-AUSA
Application Deadline: June 23, 2023

An appointment with the United States Attorney's Office offers unique and challenging experiences for the highly motivated attorney. The office is accepting applications for a permanent Assistant United States Attorney (AUSA) opening in our Civil Division in the Charlotte office. The AUSA will be responsible for conducting civil litigation on behalf of the United States, in particular civil rights litigation, to include enforcing federal statutes prohibiting discrimination on the basis of race, color, sex (including pregnancy, sexual orientation, and gender identity), disability, religion, familial status, national origin, and citizenship status. The attorney will be required to appear in federal and state court. All initial attorney appointments to the Department of Justice are made on a 14-month (temporary) basis pending a favorable adjudication of a background investigation.

Individuals applying for the position must have strong leadership skills, possess a strong work ethic, exhibit good organizational skills, exercise fair and sound judgment, pay careful attention to facts and details, work well both independently and on a team, be ready and willing to volunteer to help other attorneys, possess excellent negotiation skills, have very strong ability to analyze complex legal and factual issues, write clearly and persuasively, and represent the Government's interests at hearings and trials before the United States District Court.

Responsibilities will increase and assignments will become more complex as your training and experience progress.

06/12/2023 06:00 AM EDT

USAO Western District of North Carolina

Charlotte, North Carolina
Announcement #: 23-NCW-12002212-AUSA
Application Deadline: June 23, 2023

The United States Attorney for the Western District of North Carolina seeks an experienced attorney to serve in the Criminal Division as a prosecutor and as the Tribal Liaison.

The Western District of North Carolina is home to two federally recognized Tribes: the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians and the Catawba Nation. The Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians is the largest Native American Tribe in the eastern part of the United States. Approximately 10,000 of the Tribe's over 16,000+ enrolled members reside on trust lands that span five of North Carolina's western-most counties. The town of Cherokee lies approximately one hour's drive west of Asheville.

The newest parcel of Native American trust land in the eastern part of the United States belongs to the Catawba Nation. Approximately 17 acres of trust lands were established in 2020 near Kings Mountain, North Carolina, a little less than two hour's drive southeast of Asheville. The Tribe's over 3,000+ enrolled members mostly reside in and around Rock Hill, South Carolina.

The applicant selected to become an Assistant United States Attorney would be responsible for cultivating relationships with Tribal, federal, state, and local partners as the Office's Tribal Liaison. Duties of the Tribal Liaison include sponsoring relationships and facilitating communication between various individuals and agencies responsible for public safety in Indian country, developing expertise regarding Indian law, providing training and education to law enforcement partners to improve relationships and policing in Indian country, consulting with Tribal governments as they create and refine legal systems and processes, developing and engaging with multi-disciplinary teams on child/sexual abuse and domestic violence, and serving as a point of contact in the District for all matters arising out of Tribal lands.

The Tribal Liaison also would be primarily responsible for all federal criminal prosecutions arising from Indian country. These cover a wide variety of federal crimes, including murder, felonious assault, domestic violence, sexual abuse, drugs, firearms, human trafficking, and other crimes. Of particular concern are rising numbers of opioid- and fentanyl-related drug overdoses, violent crime, and cold cases involving missing and murdered indigenous people.

The selected candidate would work out of the branch office in Asheville, North Carolina, a beautiful city nestled in the Blue Ridge Mountains. Frequent travel within the District is expected, with occasional travel to other areas of the country.

Responsibilities will increase and assignments will become more complex as your training and experience progress.

 

 

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