Monday Morning: Your election guide

And what else you need to know.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story November 2, 2020 By David Leonhardt Good morning. One day before the election, we rank the 12 big outcomes to look for. Voters waited to cast their ballots in Pflugerville, Texas, on Friday.Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times Your election guide With only one day before Election Day, we’re using today’s newsletter to offer our ranking of this year’s 12 most important outcomes. 1. The presidency. This one is obvious. The U.S. will be a very different country under a second Trump term as opposed to a Joe Biden presidency. The first things to watch for tomorrow night will be whether Biden wins Florida, Georgia or North Carolina. Any of these will probably give him the presidency. If he seems to be losing all of them, the country may be looking at a long night — or a long week — of vote counting, with the outcome coming down to some combination of Arizona and Pennsylvania. 2. Senate control. Even if Biden wins, he may struggle to pass major legislation unless Democrats also control the Senate. And if President Trump wins, the Senate will determine how many judges he can appoint in a second term. The Democrats are likely to lose the Senate seat they now hold in Alabama, meaning they would need to flip four Republican-held seats to retake control if Vice President Kamala Harris is breaking Senate ties (and five if Vice President Mike Pence still is). Democrats have held consistent if small leads over four Republican incumbents in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. The races for five other Republican-held seats are tight: Iowa, Montana, South Carolina and two in Georgia. 3. State legislatures. Control of state legislatures is especially important in a census year, like 2020, because they draw congressional districts in many states. Over all, Democrats control 19 legislatures and Republicans control 29, with Minnesota split and Nebraska nonpartisan. Tomorrow, Democrats hope to take full control in Arizona, Minnesota and North Carolina, and to win partial control in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. (Stephen Wolf of Daily Kos has a detailed breakdown.) 4. The House. This would be higher on the list, but the result seems clear. Democrats are heavy favorites to retain control and maybe expand their 35-seat margin. A few races to watch: Republicans are in danger of losing seats in New York, New Jersey and Ohio. Democratic incumbents are at risk of losing in southern New Mexico, Staten Island and Minnesota. 5. Prosecutors and courts. Some large cities and counties — including Los Angeles, Orlando and Arizona’s Maricopa County — could elect prosecutors who have argued against mass incarceration. These candidates typically oppose the death penalty and the prosecution of simple drug-possession cases, as Daniel Nichanian of The Appeal explains. In Michigan and Ohio, Democrats hope to gain control of the state supreme courts, which could reduce gerrymandering, protect labor and voting rights and uphold governors’ pandemic policies. 6. Populist economics. Several states will consider ballot initiatives intended to reduce economic inequality, including: a measure to establish a $15 minimum wage in Florida; a step toward a more progressive income tax in Illinois; higher taxes on the affluent in Arizona; and an increase in property taxes on businesses in California. 7. Abortion in Colorado. Voters will decide whether to ban abortions after 22 weeks of gestational age. Many red states already have such laws, but Colorado would become arguably the most liberal state to adopt one. 8. Puerto Rico statehood. Citizens there will vote in a nonbinding initiative to signal whether they want the island to become a state. If it passes, a future Congress is more likely to add two new states — Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. 9. Bernie-style Democrats. Justice Democrats — the progressive group that recruited Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — has endorsed five House candidates trying to win election for the first time. Perhaps the most intriguing: Kara Eastman, who’s running in a swing district in Nebraska. So far, Bernie Sanders-style Democrats like Eastman have won virtually no races in competitive districts. 10. The future of Uber and Lyft in California. The companies are backing an initiative that would allow them to continue paying their drivers as independent contractors rather than employees, saying it’s vital to the business model. Many labor unions oppose the measure, saying it would prevent drivers from earning a living wage. 11. Ranked-choice voting. Voters in Alaska, Massachusetts and a handful of cities will decide whether to adopt ranked-choice voting, which makes it easier to vote third party without undermining a major-party candidate. Currently, only Maine uses the system statewide. 12. Drug policy. Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota will consider versions of marijuana legalization, while Oregon and Washington, D.C., will vote on whether to ease restrictions on mushrooms. For a longer list: See this guide to “what’s on the ballot,” by Nichanian, a political scientist. THE LATEST NEWS THE 2020 CAMPAIGN A Trump supporter at a rally in Shelby Township, Mich., on Sunday.Brittany Greeson for The New York Times Both campaigns will be in Pennsylvania today, the state most likely to decide the election. Biden will also campaign in Ohio, which Trump flipped from the Democrats in 2016. The Times’s final polls of the 2020 election show Biden leading in four battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden has a meaningful but not commanding lead in Pennsylvania, The Times’s Nate Cohn explains. The Texas Supreme Court denied a Republican attempt to throw out more than 120,000 early ballots cast at drive-through locations in the state’s largest county, which is heavily Democratic. But a Republican-appointed judge has called a hearing today in a nearly identical effort in federal court. Trump’s election night party will take place inside the White House and could involve around 400 guests — a potentially dangerous number for an indoor event during the pandemic. THE VIRUS A worker packs away tables at a cafe in London.Hollie Adams/Getty Images England is shutting pubs, restaurants and most retail stores for at least a month, as health experts warn that the current wave could overwhelm hospitals. Dr. Scott Atlas, the White House coronavirus adviser, went on a Russian state-sponsored news show to play down the seriousness of the pandemic. He later apologized. Trump suggested at a rally that he might fire Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, after Election Day. Fauci had told The Washington Post that the U.S. “could not possibly be positioned more poorly” heading into the winter. OTHER BIG STORIES A damaged home in Sagñay, Philippines, on Sunday.Francis R Malasig/EPA, via Shutterstock Typhoon Goni made landfall in the Philippines with sustained winds of 135 miles per hour, the most powerful storm to hit the country in years. At least 16 people died. An earthquake off the coast of Turkey killed at least 62 people and injured more than 900. Rescuers this weekend continued to dig through tons of rubble for survivors in the city of Izmir, the country’s third largest. Trump brought the news media four years of ratings and page views. Now, leaders in the industry are planning big shifts in their strategy, no matter who wins the election, The Times’s Ben Smith writes. Johnny Depp lost a court case against a British newspaper that called him a “wife beater.” A Morning read: “When I came in from Columbus Circle into the park? I just started crying. The exact same emotions.” The New York City Marathon was canceled this year, but that didn’t stop some runners. Lives Lived: After he was fired by The New Yorker, the journalist Dan Baum told his story in 350 tweets in 2009, producing one of the first examples of a Twitter thread. He died at 64. The Times can help you navigate the election — to separate fact from fiction, make sense of the polls and be sure your ballot counts. To support our efforts, please consider subscribing today. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT IDEA OF THE DAY: A NAME GAME A maternity ward of future voters in 1958.Yale Joel/The Life Picture Collection , via Getty Images How are Americans with the first name Jennifer planing to vote? What about people named Joe — or Donald? My colleagues and I have created a 10-question quiz that lets you see how well you can answer questions like these. It’s based on recent Times polls of more than 17,000 likely voters across 18 battleground states. We learned a lot about politics and culture while putting together the quiz, and we hope you enjoy it. PLAY, WATCH, EAT, PAINT David Malosh for The New York Times Make something warm This winter squash and wild mushroom curry is perfect for a fall evening (and it’s vegan). The key is to use a mix of mushrooms, like oyster, shiitakes and portobellos. Read something funny “The Best of Me,” David Sedaris’s new book, presents a collection of stories and essays spanning the author’s career. Whether you are familiar with Sedaris’s work or not, “You must read ‘The Best of Me,’” Andrew Sean Greer writes in a review. “It is miraculous to read these pieces placed close together, the earliest written without any knowledge of where things would lead, the last guffawing at the ridiculousness of where they did.” Bob Ross fans in Muncie, Ind.Evan Jenkins for The New York Times The Bob Ross experience The painter Bob Ross, with his iconic perm and gentle voice, filmed his PBS show “The Joy of Painting” in Muncie, Ind. Now, the city is home to “The Bob Ross Experience,” a permanent exhibit of memorabilia like Ross’s easel and brushes. The culture reporter Sarah Bahr describes the lively scene on opening day. Diversions In need of some stress relief? Here’s a great distraction. Jim Carrey read a spooky election update of “The Raven” on “Saturday Night Live.” Games The pangram from Friday’s Spelling Bee was familiarly. Today’s puzzle is above — or you can play online if you have a Games subscription. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Like cutting your own hair (five letters). Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David P.S. The word “squiddish” — in an article about the ram’s horn squid — appeared for the first time in The Times yesterday, as noted by the Twitter bot @NYT_first_said. You can see today’s print front page here. Today’s episode of “The Daily” is a viewer’s guide to election night. On the latest Book Review podcast, Alex Ross discusses his new book on the German composer Richard Wagner. Lalena Fisher, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. The Morning Briefing newsletter is now The Morning newsletter. You received this email because you signed up for the newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018

Daily Skimm: It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas

Skimm'd while talking about careers in politics

November 2, 2020 Read in Browser

Skimm'd while talking about careers in politics

Quote of the Day "It's time (But let's get through Thanksgiving first)" – Mariah Carey, on the start of the holiday music season. The Queen of Christmas has spoken.

Election Day Eve

The Story The US is officially one day out from Election Day. Big day. You know it. Let's start with a walk down memory lane...we began the election cycle watching over a dozen people duke it out on the debate stage. And thought we saw the worst of our country's voting issues at the Iowa caucuses. Little did we know, many would become deeply invested in the USPS. And the mute button. Now, Nov 3's officially less than 24 hours away. And there's no better time to get a refresher on what's at stake in this election than now: The Presidency...It's President Donald Trump vs former VP Joe Biden. Ever heard of them? Trump wants to get reelected to another four years. And Biden wants his job. They're both vying for the votes of nearly 240 million eligible voters and 538 electors. If you need a refresher on where they stand on the issues, we've got it here. The Senate...Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. And they've played a crucial role in getting three new justices in the last four years. There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs tomorrow: 23 red and 12 blue. Democrats not only need to keep the 47 seats they have but also gain four if they want to ditch their minority status. Or, they need to add three seats and the presidency to call the shots – since the VP breaks any tie votes. As for the GOP, they can lose up to three seats and still hold the majority, as long as Trump wins reelection. Some of the races where Republicans and Democrats are going head-to-head include: Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, and Montana. The House...Democrats have a majority in the 435-seat chamber of Congress. They've often butted heads with the other chamber on issues like coronavirus relief and police reform. All seats will be up for election tomorrow. And while Republicans have a solid chance to increase their side of the aisle, analysts say winning the majority may not be in the cards. Keep an eye out for close races in: New Jersey, New Mexico, Texas, and Minnesota. Local races…where decisions that can affect your day-to-day are generally made. Each municipality has different races on the ballot. Think: for state legislature, city council, school board, and more. One study found that fewer than 15% of eligible voters turned out to vote for local elections. Meaning, a limited group of voters gets to decide what's in store for the future of their community. Reach out to your local election officials to find out more about your down-ballot races and make an informed decision. theSkimm Over 92 million Americans have already cast their ballot in an election happening amid a pandemic. If that's not history, we don't know what is. But tomorrow is the last day to make your voice heard in this election. So if you haven't done so already, find your polling location, read up on who's on your ballot, and go vote.

Crunch Time

As the coronavirus rages on and people have had to adjust to a new normal, it's clear this year has been stressful. And tomorrow's general election may be adding to your stress and causing angst, no matter who you're voting for. Just know, you're not alone. Americans are stressed: Last month, the American Psychological Association found that 68% of adults surveyed say the 2020 election is a significant source of stress in their life – up from 52% in 2016. Across the board, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents are significantly stressed. And Black adults had an even greater increase in stress from the election, from 46% in 2016 to 71% in 2020. Whoosah: There are things you can do to help with that. The APA advises focusing on what you can control and encourages exercising and spending time with friends and family. You can also take time to breathe in and out, do a body scan meditation, and even the 12-12-12 challenge. Want to learn more ways to de-stress? We've got you.

And Also...This

What's raising alarms... COVID-19. Last Friday, the US reported nearly 100,000 new coronavirus infections in one day – the highest single-day number of cases recorded for any country. The record comes as health officials warn that cases will rise as the weather gets colder and people head indoors. Meanwhile, across the pond, the UK is going into lockdown mode. Starting Thursday, nonessential shops, pubs, restaurants, and gyms will close through at least Dec 2. But things like grocery stores, childcare, schools, and universities will remain open. This is after a rise of about 20,000 daily cases. But while the UK is days away from restrictions, Spain has already implemented theirs. And is now dealing with violent protests against the gov's 11pm to 6am curfew, which some protesters reportedly say will threaten their jobs.

Where people are mourning… Turkey and Greece. Last week, at least 64 people were killed and hundreds injured after a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck the Aegean Sea. And since it's located between a Greek island and the Turkish coast, both regions felt the shake. It even caused a mini tsunami that flooded streets in Turkey. Rescue crews are working to find survivors under the rubble of several destroyed buildings. Turkey's president said at least 103 people had been rescued so far.

Who people are remembering… Sean Connery. Over the weekend, the Scottish actor died at age 90. His family said he passed away peacefully in his sleep. Connery is best known for playing James Bond. And was considered the best actor to play the character by many fans. He won several awards in the US and UK for his work, including an Academy Award for the 1987 film, "The Untouchables." He was also knighted by Queen Elizabeth II in 2000. James Bond producers paid tribute, saying Connery is "undoubtedly largely responsible for the success of the film series." And said they'd forever be grateful to the man that created the signature line, "The name's Bond...James Bond." RIP.

Who people are talking about... Johnny Depp. Today, the actor lost a high-stakes libel case against the publishers of The Sun – a tabloid in the UK. In 2018, The Sun published an article describing Depp as a "wife beater" and claiming there was "overwhelming evidence" he had assaulted actress Amber Heard repeatedly during their relationship. Depp sued the tabloid's publishers and sought compensation for damage to his reputation. But today, a UK High Court judge said The Sun proved that what they published was "substantially true." Heard testified on the tabloid's behalf and maintained she was telling the truth. Depp has denied the allegations.

What's getting us in the election spirit... These "I Voted" stickers.

Stay Fresh

Feeling stuck in a rut? Same. So we partnered with Mentos Pure Fresh Gum to bring you some ways to shake things up. Because Mentos is all about fresh ideas, fresh breath, and fresh perspectives. This week we have ways to refresh the 3pm slump. Get some air. Because fresh air can revive you. Today, walk for 10 mins in a direction you don't normally go. Chat with a coworker. Even if you're WFH, you can break up the day with some socializing. Schedule a quick video call or chat with your office BFF, and talk about anything but deadlines. Brain break, achieved. Re-set your focus with Mentos Pure Fresh Gum. It will help you stay energized and tackle the task at hand. And hey, EOD is closer than you think. Werk it.

Here are our favorite picks to help you take a break today... 1. Classic cocktails to make right now. Fact: everything in life is better when there are bitters and liquor involved. Especially when there's an election going on. Cheers. 2. A bra you'll be happy wearing all day. Enter: Maidenform's Pure Comfort® bras. They're made of super soft fabrics, and they still offer total support even though they're wireless. Basically it's like winning the lottery. Bra-vo.* 3. 17 stress-relief recipes that'll help get all your feelings out. Aka ones that require a lot of chopping, whisking, and kneading. If you can't take the emotional heat, stay out of the kitchen. PS: Want more? Sign up to get weekly recs in your inbox.

For when all you want is a spa day... Spoil your scalp from home. This award-winning, plant-based hair care brand is launching a new Hair Mask and Scalp Renew treatment next month. But Skimm'rs get exclusive early access for 24 hours only. Plus 27% off sitewide. Psst...they sold out in seven hours last time. Act fast.* For when it's your niece or nephew's first holiday… Secure your place as the favorite relative. This mom-founded company offers gender-neutral styles for babies and kids without silly slogans. And you can get matching PJs for the whole family too. PS: Skimm'rs get an exclusive offer. Oh, baby.* For when you wanna "Smart Home" your life (but don't know where to start)... We can help. This list has tech gadgets designed to make your days a bit easier. Like an electric wine opener and a water + climate sensor to prevent things like home floods. Imagine that. *PS: This is a sponsored post.

Skimm'rs

In times like these, community matters more than ever. Let us know how you (or someone you know) is making an impact by helping others. Threading the love with...Bree P (IL). She's the founder of Only Human – a community org fueled by kindness and social entrepreneurship. This month, they're launching the "Never Alone" campaign to spread awareness around advocating for neglected and abused children around the world who need someone to be there for them. And will be donating 10% of their proceeds to Voices for CASA Children. Learn more. (Some) Birthdays...M.G. Siegler, Louise Cronin (CA), Faith Greenberg (FL), Hatley Thompson (DC), Sarah Hofschire (MA), Monique Ervine (CAN), Leana Macrito (IL), Aakankhya Patro (TX), AnnMarie Murtaugh (TX), Kalon Taylor (TN), Lauren Valainis (DC), Maria Perwerton (MI), Jaycie Moller (CA), Erin Manfull (IA), Jennifer Rheaume (MA) *Paging all members of theSkimm. Reach out here for a chance to be featured.

Skimm Share

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