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This Month's Featured Story
5 Space Stocks Already Climbing Ahead of the SpaceX IPOWritten by Bridget Bennett. Publication Date: 4/14/2026. 
Key Points
- Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are the two most-watched beneficiaries of a SpaceX IPO, with accelerating revenue growth and expanding launch backlogs that could attract fresh institutional capital once the space sector gets its benchmark public listing.
- Intuitive Machines stands closest to profitability among the five names, with 2026 revenue guidance of up to $1 billion and a backlog approaching $943 million anchored by NASA and defense contracts.
- Planet Labs and Redwire remain earlier-stage plays with longer runways to profitability, but both could benefit from the wave of institutional investment a SpaceX listing is expected to unlock across the broader space sector.
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The most anticipated IPO in recent market history is no longer just speculation. SpaceX filed a confidential draft registration with the SEC on April 1 that targets a $1.75 trillion valuation and a roughly $75 billion raise—an offering that would dwarf Saudi Aramco's 2019 record. A June Nasdaq listing is the current timeline, and MarketBeat analyst Thomas Hughes believes the event could do more than lift a single stock: it may unlock institutional-scale capital across the commercial space sector. Hughes notes that SpaceX controls the vast majority of global launch market share, and nearly every company building satellite constellations, lunar infrastructure, or orbital manufacturing relies on its rockets. A successful public listing at this valuation would further legitimize commercial space as an investable asset class, potentially directing significant capital to other companies already operating in the sector.
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Here are five space stocks Hughes is watching ahead of that potential inflection point. Rocket Lab: The Second Mover With Accelerating MomentumRocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) is the closest domestic launch competitor to SpaceX. It remains smaller in scale, but the gap in ambition is narrowing. Revenue reached $601.8 million in 2025, up nearly 38% year over year, as the company accelerated its launch cadence while developing the Neutron heavy-lift vehicle to support larger constellation deployments and potentially human spaceflight. The stock climbed to nearly $100 in January before pulling back with the broader correction in speculative growth names; it currently trades around $70. Hughes views that decline as the market establishing support rather than signaling a structural problem. Rocket Lab is still unprofitable, but revenue growth and an expanding backlog suggest it could reach profitability within the next year or two. Fifteen analysts maintain a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $71. Valuation is the key risk: at roughly 60 times trailing sales, the market is pricing in years of flawless execution. Hughes argues, however, that the company's launch cadence and the broader space-investment thesis support the premium—especially if a SpaceX IPO accelerates institutional interest in the sector. AST SpaceMobile: Satellite 5G With a Massive Addressable MarketAST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) is attempting something few others have: a space-based cellular broadband network that works directly with standard, unmodified smartphones. The vision is global, uninterrupted 5G coverage, and the company is relying heavily on SpaceX launches to deploy its BlueBird satellite constellation. Revenue jumped from $4.4 million in 2024 to $70.9 million in 2025 as the company moved from testing into early commercialization. Losses widened to $342 million in 2025, but Hughes frames the current phase as risk reduction—the technology works, satellites are launching, and major telecom operators including TELUS (NYSE: TU), Orange (OTCMKTS: ORANY), and Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD) have signed on. What remains is execution and time. The stock reached an all-time intraday high near $130 in January, fell to the mid-$30s during the correction, and has since recovered to the high $90s. Hughes expects periodic pullbacks as the market recalibrates, but says each successful launch and partnership announcement should remove another layer of risk. The biggest near-term threat is delays in building out the constellation. Intuitive Machines: Closest to Profitability With a Lunar EdgeIntuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) builds robots, landers, and infrastructure components focused primarily on the Moon. Of the five names on this list, it may have the strongest near-term financial story. Management guided for $900 million to $1 billion in revenue for 2026, a significant jump from $210 million in 2025 driven by acquisitions, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services contracts, and defense awards. The company also guided for positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026, which would make it one of the first non-SpaceX space companies to hit that milestone. A backlog approaching $943 million provides visibility, though revenue can be lumpy because government and project-based contracts tend to be timing-sensitive. Intuitive Machines' service business broadens the thesis beyond lunar missions. NASA and defense engineering work generate steadier revenue streams, and the $4.8 billion Near Space Network contract awarded in 2024 runs through 2034. The stock trades around $24, near its 52-week high, after a long period in a sideways range. Hughes sees the breakout as the market beginning to price in the profitability inflection. Planet Labs: Earth Imaging in a Space EconomyPlanet Labs (NYSE: PL) operates a constellation of Earth-imaging satellites and is transitioning from a hardware company into a data-intelligence platform. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $307.7 million, up 26% year over year, with Q4 revenue of $86.8 million that notably beat estimates. The link to SpaceX is direct: Planet Labs uses Falcon 9 rockets for deployments. Each launch supports SpaceX's business, and the growth of satellite-based Earth observation contributes to the launch demand pipeline. Institutional investors hold roughly 40% of the float and have been net buyers at better than a two-to-one pace, according to Hughes. The challenge is profitability: losses widened to $247 million in fiscal 2026, and a clear path to breakeven remains several years out. Hughes views Planet Labs as a longer-term play where a SpaceX IPO could accelerate the timeline by drawing more capital into space infrastructure. Shares recently reached new 52-week intraday highs near $38, but the stock trades at a premium that leaves limited room for execution mistakes. Redwire: Orbital Manufacturing at the Earliest StageRedwire (NYSE: RDW) occupies a different corner of the space economy. The company supplies space infrastructure—deployable solar arrays, sensors, avionics, and in-space manufacturing facilities—along with an expanding defense technology segment that includes autonomous systems and optical sensors. Revenue grew 10% to $335 million in 2025, but losses widened to $272 million and the profit margin sits near negative 67.5%. Hughes identifies Redwire as the weakest near-term play of the five, with the longest runway to profitability; the stock has struggled for over a year and currently trades around $9. The bull case is positional: as more companies build satellites, infrastructure, and eventual manufacturing capacity in orbit, they will need the components and superstructures Redwire provides. A SpaceX IPO that accelerates the broader buildout could pull Redwire's demand curve forward. Analysts assign a consensus Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $13.89, suggesting meaningful upside if the thesis plays out, but investors should expect volatility and be prepared for a longer time horizon. The SpaceX Catalyst and What to WatchThe common thread across all five names is that a SpaceX IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation would create a pricing benchmark for the commercial aerospace sector. It would further validate commercial space as an institutional-grade asset class and could unlock capital flows that have been waiting for a clear signal. Hughes cautions that the IPO itself may be volatile: he expects strong demand that could produce a sharp initial pop followed by a retracement as short sellers and traders react. For investors considering the five stocks profiled here, the strategy is less about timing the IPO day and more about positioning ahead of a broader capital rotation into space. The names closest to profitability—Intuitive Machines and Rocket Lab—carry the least execution risk. AST SpaceMobile presents the highest upside conceptually but depends on continued satellite deployment. Planet Labs and Redwire sit further out on the risk curve, with longer timelines to demonstrate sustainable financial performance. Across the group, the setup is consistent: a sector long driven by speculation may be approaching institutional validation that could turn speculative interest into sustained investment. |
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